SKADE (World rank: #25) vs. Entropiq (World rank: #16) 

Moneyline Odds: SKADE (+120) | Entropiq (-145)  

Map Handicap: SKADE +1.5 (-280) | Entropiq -1.5 (+225) 

Map Total: Over 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 (-110)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs of Pinnacle Cup II.
  • SKADE - Rating at event: dennyslaw 1.17 | Duplicate 1.01 | Rainwaker 1.01 | SHiPZ 0.97 | oxygen 0.95
  • SKADE - Rating past three months: dennyslaw 1.17 | Rainwaker 1.09 | SHiPZ 1.07 | Duplicate 1.02 | oxygeN 0.98
  • Entropiq - Rating at event: El1an 1.28 | Forester 1.07 | Lack1 0.93 | NickelBack 0.92 | Krad 0.92
  • Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.26 | Forester 1.13 | Krad 1.07 | NickelBack 1.05 | Lack1 1.04

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced each other on July 4th for the semi-finals of Elisa Invitational Summer 2021 and SKADE won 2-0 (16-14 Vertigo / 16-11 Dust2). SHiPZ had the most kills with 48 across two maps, but El1an was the highest rated player with a 1.31 Rating. These teams have played 11 maps against each other in 2021 and Entropiq has won seven of them.

Projected Maps:

                SKADE removes Nuke

                Entropiq removes Inferno

                SKADE picks Vertigo

                Entropiq picks Dust2

                SKADE removes Ancient

                Entropiq removes Mirage

                Overpass is left over.

                

SKADE - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (15 maps): 10-5 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 77.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.6% round win percent after receiving first death

SKADE - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (15 maps): Rainwaker +46 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | dennyslaw +44 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | SHiPZ +17 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating 

SKADE- Key stats on Dust2 past three months (32 maps): 18-14 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.4% round win percent after receiving first death

SKADE - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (32 maps): dennyslaw +92 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Rainwaker +33 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | SHiPZ +9 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating 

 

Entropiq - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (16 maps): 7-9 W/L record, 59.4% pistol round win percent, 68.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.7% round win percent after receiving first death

Entropiq - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (16 maps): El1an +44 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | NickelBack +5 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

Entropiq - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (43 maps): 29-14 W/L record, 48.8% pistol round win percent, 75.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Entropiq - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (43 maps): El1an +248 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | Forester +127 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Krad +77 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Lack1 +60 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating 

Analysis:

Draftkings is funny with their pricing because Lack1 was somehow the most expensive play on the slate on Tuesday at $9,000, but he is now the cheapest player on Entropiq at $5,200 for this slate. Sure, it is not as good of a spot for him and his team, but this significant change is just weird with neither pricing seeming correct in either direction. Lack1 did end up with the most kills on the server on Tuesday, so maybe we should pay attention when Draftkings randomly hikes up the price of a player like that. Lack1 struggled in this match-up with SKADE last time, but he seems like a good play here using pure caveman logic based on the pricing from one day to the next. This should be a pretty competitive series, but I do think Entropiq have the edge despite SKADE sweeping last time, and I see this as a 2-1 win for Entropiq. This Entropiq roster has beaten SKADE three out of four times on Dust2 in 2021, and I expect that map to go their way this time. El1an had a quiet Dust2 in that previous series, but that map has been one of his best so we should see a better performance on Wednesday. These teams are fairly evenly matched across the rest of the map pool, with SKADE having an advantage on Vertigo if they do pick it again. El1an looks like the strongest play, but there are interesting value options on both sides. Forester and Krad both look solid, but neither are huge priorities for me since I would rather spend up for some players in the ENCE/HAVU series, with Forester being my preference of those two. NickelBack looks like a great play at $6,000, and he finished as the highest rated player on Entropiq last time in this match-up on Dust2 despite it being one of his weaker maps, so perhaps he has even more upside against SKADE. Lack1 definitely does seem too cheap, and like I said he was $9,000 on Tuesday so could possibly be a very strong value play. I also do not mind getting to SHiPZ, Rainwaker or dennyslaw on SKADE since this series should stay close and all three of them project decently well for their salaries. A three stack from Entropiq that includes El1an would be my first option, but I do not mind the idea of mixing value plays from both sides of this series.

 

ENCE (World rank: #23) vs. HAVU (World rank: #35) 

Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-365) | HAVU (+285)  

Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (-105) | HAVU +1.5 (-120)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-170)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs of Pinnacle Cup II.
  • ENCE - Rating at event: Spinx 1.22 | dycha 1.19 | hades 1.16 | doto 1.08 | Snappi 1.04 
  • ENCE - Rating past three months: hades 1.17 | Spinx 1.15 | dycha 1.10 | doto 1.06 | Snappi 1.01
  • HAVU - Rating at event: xseveN 1.15 | Aerial 1.07 | ZOREE 1.04 | sLowi 1.04 | disturbed 0.90
  • HAVU - Rating past three months: xseveN 1.08 | Aerial 1.06 | ZOREE 1.03 | sLowi 1.02 | disturbed 0.89

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced each other on June 14th for the quarter-finals of the Funspark ULTI 2021 Europe Playoffs 1 and ENCE won 2-1 (16-7 Vertigo / 0-16 Dust2 / 16-5 Nuke). Yes, you read that correctly - HAVU beat ENCE 16-0 on Dust2 last time. Hades led the way with 49 kills and a 1.31 Rating across three maps. The teams faced twice earlier in the year, but allu was still playing for ENCE instead of hades, and jemi was still playing for HAVU instead of disturbed, so I do not put much weight into those results.

Projected Maps:

                ENCE removes Dust2

                HAVU removes Vertigo

                ENCE picks Nuke

                HAVU picks Inferno

                ENCE removes Overpass

                HAVU removes Mirage

                Nuke is left over.

                

ENCE - Key stats on Nuke past three months (11 maps): 8-3 W/L record, 59.1% pistol round win percent, 76.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 36.4% round win percent after receiving first death

ENCE - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (11 maps): hades +52 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Spinx +47 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | dycha +13 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | doto +11 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating

ENCE - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 67.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.9% round win percent after receiving first death

ENCE - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): dycha +18 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | hades +17 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | doto +7 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Spinx +9 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating 

 

HAVU - Key stats on Nuke past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 16.7% pistol round win percent, 56.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.2% round win percent after receiving first death

HAVU - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (3 maps): sLowi -9 K/D Diff, 0/91 Rating

HAVU - Key stats on Inferno past three months (2 maps): 2-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 40.5% round win percent after receiving first death

HAVU - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (2 maps): Aerial +2 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | sLowi +2 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | ZOREE +9 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | xseveN +1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | disturbed +8 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating 

Analysis:

I do not expect to see the same maps as the last time these teams played, especially since HAVU beat ENCE 16-0 on Dust2. If ENCE ban Dust2 then I think HAVU’s only chance of ‘punish picking’ would be Inferno, and I think that is what ENCE will opt to do. HAVU did not ban Vertigo last time since ENCE have banned it themselves at times in the past, but ENCE punish picked it last time and won easily, 16-7, so I think HAVU will look to avoid a similar fate by banning it this time. I see this series as a 2-0 win for ENCE as long as Dust2 is not in the mix, but a 2-1 win would be more likely otherwise. I think there is enough value in the first series to get to the safe ENCE guys, which would be hades, Spinx and dycha. I think having at least two of them in a stack would be ideal. I am not looking to play HAVU on this slate, but xseveN would be my favorite choice as a one-off. Still, he is basically the same price as dycha at $7,800 and this looks like a much better spot for dycha given the projected maps as well as the fact that ENCE is a (-365) moneyline favorite. Doto looks like a strong value play, while Snappi is not typically a priority on this team. Still, I think ENCE should roll here and the whole team should benefit for DFS. Hades is the most expensive at $9,200, but that price tag seems too low for his potential upside, so I love spending up for him if you have the salary available, and I think he may also be the safest captain option on the slate. Spinx is my favorite play on Draftkings based on pricing though.

 

**Favorite Stacks: ENCE, Entropiq

**Favorite CPT plays: Spinx, El1an, hades, dycha, Forester

**Favorite Value Plays: doto, Lack1, Nickelback