Savage (World rank: #38) vs. BLINK (World rank: #30) - 9:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Savage (-385) | BLINK (+295) 

Map Handicap: Savage -1.5 (-105 | BLINK +1.5 (-115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+145) | Under 2.5 (-175)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the Elisa Invitational Winter 2021 Main Qualifier - Swiss Round 2 (Teams with a 1-0 record)
  • Savage - Rating at event: PlesseN 1.46 | grux 1.30 | draken 1.15 | twist 1.00 | dezon 0.85
  • Savage - Rating past three months: PlesseN 1.15 | draken 1.13 | grux 1.04 | twist 1.01 | dezon 0.99
  • BLINK - Rating at event: gxx- 1.33 | sinnopsyy 0.90 | gulito N/A | Caley N/A
  • BLINK - Rating past three months: gxx- 1.07 | sinnopsyy 1.01 | gulito 0.88 | Caley 0.80

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Savage removes Nuke 

BLINK removes Dust2

Savage picks Ancient

BLINK picks Mirage

Savage removes Overpass

BLINK removes Vertigo

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Savage wins 2-0.

BLINK has basically fallen apart as an organization. In the past week, they announced they weren’t renewing the contracts of rigoN & SENER1, with the departure of rigoN being particularly surprising since he had been such a consistent fragger for BLINK as the highest rated player in their old lineup with a 1.11 Rating across 128 maps played. Then, sinnopsyy announced that he was stepping down from the IGL role, which means that gulito is now the stand-in IGL. And most recently, juanflatroo announced he was stepping down from competitive Counter-Strike due to medical issues, which means that BLINK are also without the second highest rated player from their old lineup (1.10 Rating across 128 maps played). Thus, things do not look good for BLINK right now, and I would completely fade them outside of maybe their AWPer, gxx-, who is $7,400 on Draftkings, which is probably too expensive in this spot. At this point, we don’t even know their full starting lineup anyway, so I would stay away. 

On the other side of the server, we have Savage, who just beat #37 world ranked Unique in a best-of-three on Wednesday. The orgless Swedes have looked solid since Apeks signed chawzyyy from their roster. The former AWPer from Ninjas in Pyjamas, draken, has returned to Counter-Strike and slotted in nicely in chawzyyy’s place, and Savage have proven that they are a legitimate tier two opponent having won 13 out of 23 maps played with this lineup. The Swedes map pool is not strong enough to guarantee a sweep here, but they should still have this series locked up one way or another given the current state of BLINK as an organization. My preference would be to stack three from Savage in this spot.

  • PlesseN has dominated on Ancient with a 1.43 K/D ratio and 1.42 Rating across seven maps played with this lineup.
  • Draken leads his team on Mirage with a 1.40 K/D ratio and 1.28 Rating across two maps played with this lineup.
  • PlesseN leads his team on Inferno with a 1.27 Rating, while draken leads with a 1.28 K/D ratio across three maps played

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

draken ($8,800) | PlesseN ($9,400) | twist ($7,200) | grux ($8,000) | dezon ($6,200) | gxx- ($7,400)

 

ECSTATIC (World rank: #17) vs. AGF (World rank: Unranked) - 12:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: ECSTATIC (-265) | AGF (+215) 

Map Handicap: ECSTATIC -1.5 (+115) | AGF +1.5 (-145)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the Elisa Invitational Winter 2021 Main Qualifier - Swiss Round 2 (Teams with a 1-0 record)
  • ECSTATIC - Rating at event: birdfromsky 1.46 | FASHR 1.40 | WolfY 1.38 | Daffu 1.03 | maNkz 0.96
  • ECSTATIC - Rating past three months: FASHR 1.13 | WolfY 1.07 | maNkz 1.05 | Daffu 1.01 | birdfromsky 1.00
  • AGF - Rating at event: Cabbi 1.58 | Nodios 1.05 | Buzz 0.99 | cajunb 0.97 | Kristou 0.96
  • AGF - Rating past three months: cajunb 1.07 | Nodios 1.04 | Buzz 0.99 | Kristou 0.96 | Cabbi 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

ECSTATIC removes Mirage

AGF removes Dust2

ECSTATIC picks Vertigo

AGF picks Nuke

ECSTATIC removes Overpass

AGF removes Ancient

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: ECSTATIC wins 2-1

AGF announced in the December 2021 that they were letting go of their roster in February 2022, and that they would be focused on developing their academy team going forward. We saw at year end with teams like Vitality & Liquid that a ‘final dance’ narrative can lead to some last minute success, so I don’t want to completely count out AGF in this spot. In the first round of this qualifier, AGF swept number nine world ranked Entropiq 2-0 (16-13 Vertigo / 16-12 Ancient) thanks to a monster performance from Cabbi, who finished with 62 kills and a 1.58 Rating across two maps. ECSTATIC recently lost 1-2 to Entropiq, but their form has been good lately having won four of their last six series, and they are still the better team on paper regardless of any potential narratives on the AGF side. 

I would consider ECSTATIC to be a heavy favorite on four maps: Inferno, Vertigo, Ancient and Dust2. Inferno & Vertigo are ECSTATIC’s two most played maps with a 12-7 W/L record on Inferno and 11-8 W/L record on Vertigo in the past three months. ECSTATIC have also been solid on Ancient with a 9-5 W/L record during that time, meanwhile AGF just ended a six map loss streak on Ancient with their win against Entropiq. Dust2 is not ECSTATIC’s favorite map to play, but they have won four of their last five on it while AGF have lost six of their last seven, plus I believe that ECSTATIC have the better aimers, which means they should prevail on that map. Nuke would probably be AGF’s best chance to pick up a map considering they have won four of their last five on it, and I think this series could easily go three maps given the fact that AGF looked so good against Entropiq, and they clearly haven’t given up despite their organization moving on. Still, ECSTATIC have enough of a grasp on the map pool that even an inspired performance of AGF should fall short. My preference on Draftkings would be to stack two or three players from ECSTATIC, with someone like Cabbi as a possible one-off from AGF. 

  • FASHR leads his team on Vertigo with a 1.18 Rating and 1.10 K/D Ratio across 19 maps played in the past three months.
  • FASHR leads his team on Inferno with a 1.19 Rating, while WolfY leads with a 1.31 K/D ratio across 19 maps played in the past three months. 
  • FASHR leads his team on Nuke with a 1.07 Rating, while WolfY & Daffu are the only members of the team to have a K/D ratio of at least one across nine maps played in the past three months at 1.01 & 1.00, respectively.
  • Cabbi was red hot in AGF’s only series played in 2022 with 62 kills, 107.2 ADR and a 1.58 Rating across two maps played against Entropiq, which makes him the highest rated player at this event so far. If I was going to play anyone from AGF, it would be likely be Cabbi based on recent form and his cheap price tag of $4,800 on Draftkings, though the sample size is small.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

FASHR ($9,200) | WolfY ($8,400) | Daffu ($6,600) | Cabbi ($4,800) | maNkz ($7,800) | birdfromsky ($5,600) | cajunb ($7,600) 

 

*Preferred Stacks: Savage, ECSTATIC

*Favorite Spend-Ups: FASHR, draken, PlesseN, WolfY, grux, maNkz

*Favorite Value Plays: twist, Daffu, dezon, cabbi, birdfromsky