Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. G2 (World rank: #5) - 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-200) | G2 (+165)
Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (+150) | G2 +1.5 (-185)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN in front of the crowd at Spodek Arena for the Semi-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- Natus Vincere - Rating at event: s1mple 1.30 | electronic 1.08 | Perfecto 1.04 | b1t 1.02 | Boombl4 0.96
- Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.37 | electronic 1.14 | b1t 1.12 | Perfecto 1.00 | Boombl4 0.97
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.37 | m0NESY 1.18 | huNter- 1.17 | JACKZ 1.06 | Aleksib 0.94
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.35 | m0NESY 1.16 | huNter- 1.11 | JACKZ 1.00 | Aleksib 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams faced each other five times in 2021 and NAVI won all five times, including a 2-0 sweep at the PGL Major Stockholm Grand Final. However, G2 have since added m0NESY and Aleksib to their lineup.
Map Projections:
G2 removes Overpass
Natus Vincere removes Vertigo
G2 picks Inferno
Natus Vincere picks Nuke
G2 removes Dust2
Natus Vincere removes Ancient
Mirage is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-1.
In 2021, NAVI owned G2, which is why G2 decided to make a huge move and acquire the AWP prodigy, m0NESY, along with Aleksib, to compete for Majors. With their new lineup, they have been on fire with a 15-6 W/L record across 21 maps played, and they are the highest rated team at this event with a 1.14 team rating across 13 maps played. NiKo had a ‘quiet’ series against VP, but he is still the highest rated player at the event with a 1.37 Rating. There were some concerns about how m0NESY would perform in his first match on the big stage, and he did not disappoint with 45 kills in overtime on Mirage. Thus, my confidence in this G2 roster is at an all-time high.
As for NAVI, they’re still the best team in the world and they were the favorites coming into this. They took home several trophies in 2021, but they have looked off at times this year, including when they lost 4-16 on Nuke against ENCE earlier in the event. Additionally, Natus Vincere is an esports organization based in Ukraine, with s1mple, b1t and coach B1ad3 all being Ukrainian, while the other members of NAVI are Russian. I can only imagine how difficult of a time this must be for them at the moment, and I have to imagine that the terrible things going on in Ukraine serve as an unwelcomed distraction for the team right now. So, if NAVI were to ever stumble against G2, it would probably be now, though they often give their best performances in important spots like these.
Mirage & Inferno are G2’s most played maps with their current lineup, and there is a good possibility that both maps end up in the pool like last time. Also, Nuke is NAVI’s most likely map pick, and G2 are undefeated on that map with this lineup. Overall, the map pool could set up nicely for G2 as the underdogs.
Key Stats:
NAVI - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 83.3% pistol round win percent, 75.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (6 maps): s1mple +65 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | electronic +25 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Boombl4 -2 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | b1t -3 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (9 maps): 7-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (9 maps): s1mple +38 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | electronic +7 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | b1t +28 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Perfecto +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 79.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Best performers on Mirage past 3 months (10 maps): s1mple +109 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | electronic +29 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | b1t +21 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 83.3% pistol round win percent, 81.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (6 maps): NiKo +35 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | m0NESY +27 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | huNter- +24 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | JACKZ +17 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (3 maps): 3-0 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 79.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (3 maps): NiKo +40 K/D Diff, 1.74 Rating | JACKZ +15 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | huNter- +17 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Aleksib +6 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | m0NESY +8 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 80.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Best performers on Mirage past 3 months (6 maps): NiKo +19 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | m0NESY +16 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | huNter- +9 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating
*Stats for G2 only include maps played with m0NESY & Aleksib
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NiKo ($8,200) | m0NESY ($7,000) | s1mple ($9,000) | huNter- ($6,200) | Aleksib ($4,800) | electronic ($8,000) | JACKZ ($5,600) | b1t ($7,200)
Heroic (World rank: #8) vs. FaZe (World rank: #9) - 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-115) | FaZe (-110)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+240) | FaZe +1.5 (-305)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN in front of the crowd at Spodek Arena for the Semi-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.35 | sjuush 1.14 | cadiaN 1.06 | refrezh 1.00 | TeSeS 0.92
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.17 | sjuush 0.99 | cadiaN 0.97 | TeSeS 0.96 | refrezh 0.93
- FaZe - Rating at event: broky 1.32 | jks 1.13 | Twistzz 1.12 | ropz 1.06 | karrigan 0.86
- FaZe - Rating past three months: broky 1.18 | ropz 1.14 | Twistzz 1.11 | jks 1.06 | karrigan 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met at IEM Winter 2021 when FaZe won 2-0 (16-13 Inferno / 16-14 Nuke). However, jks is currently standing in for rain, plus ropz has since replaced olofmeister in the FaZe lineup. Prior to that, Heroic swept 2-0 in November (16-14 Mirage / 16-13 Nuke), so all four maps were fairly close despite both series resulting in sweeps.
Map Projections:
FaZe removes Vertigo
Heroic removes Dust2
FaZe picks Inferno
Heroic picks Mirage
FaZe removes Nuke
Heroic removes Ancient
Overpass is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-0.
Heroic have been in excellent form at IEM Katowice 2022. They are currently the second highest rated team at the event with a 1.09 Rating across seven maps played, and they have only dropped a single map against OG with sweeps against Vitality and Virtus.pro. They reached their peak during the online era of CS:GO, so the LAN environment does pose some questions, but we know that an emotional player like cadiaN can thrive in front of a crowd. Stavn has been leading the way as the second highest rated player at this event with a 1.35 Rating across seven maps played, and all five members of this Danish roster are capable of top fragging.
As for Faze, they managed to sweep Gambit on Friday despite needing jks to stand in for rain, who tested positive for COVID. Jks originally stood in for ropz, who missed the opening of this event for COVID, and he has been a solid replacement player for FaZe. The team has a 7-2 W/L record across nine maps played with jks in the lineup, and they won all four series that they played against Gambit, Liquid, MOUZ and Sprout. There is a ton of firepower on FaZe since they brought in ropz, and they are seemingly playing without any pressure with a stand-in, so perhaps FaZe do have potential at this event. Still, I think a top team like Heroic should be able to win based on experience against a team with a stand-in, so hopefully the Danes perform much better than Gambit did.
Mirage has been Heroic’s best map in 2022. They are 3-0 so far and have converted 92.9% of rounds in which they got the opening kill. FaZe are 1-1 on Mirage with jks in the lineup, and their T side and CT side win rates are both below 50% during that time. Nuke could be another option for Heroic. It hasn’t been their best map lately, but it is a strategy-heavy map, which could make preparation difficult for FaZe. Inferno has been FaZe’s best map, but Heroic are 2-0 on that map in 2022, including a hard-fought double overtime win against Vitality. I think Heroic should be able to compete on any map that FaZe will pick, and I like the Danes to sweep here.
Key Stats:
FaZe - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (10 maps): 8-2 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 69.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (10 maps): broky +63 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Twistzz +13 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | ropz (5 maps) +15 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | jks (3 maps) +5 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (6 maps): 2-4 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 50.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Best performers on Mirage past 3 months (6 maps): broky +36 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | jks (2 maps) +3 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Twistzz 0 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | ropz (2 maps) +4 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 72.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Best performers on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): ropz (5 maps) +16 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | broky +9 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | Twistzz +9 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 69.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 39.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (4 maps): stavn +16 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | sjuush -1 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | TeSeS +1 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | cadiaN 0 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 76.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Best performers on Mirage past 3 months (5 maps): stavn +20 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | sjuush +12 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | cadiaN +13 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 68.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Best performers on Overpass past 3 months (3 maps): stavn +19 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | refrezh +6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | sjuush +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
stavn ($8,600) | TeSeS ($6,000) | sjuush ($7,800) | refrezh ($5,200) | cadiaN ($6,800) | broky ($8,400) | Twistzz ($6,600) | ropz ($7,400)