G2 (World rank: #5) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #4) - 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-160) | Virtus.pro (+130)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+185) | Virtus.pro +1.5 (-230)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Quarter-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.50 | huNter- 1.15 | m0NESY 1.15 | JACKZ 1.09 | Aleksib 0.92
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.38 | m0NESY 1.14 | huNter- 1.10 | JACK 1.00 | Aleksib 0.96
- Virtus.pro - Rating at event: Jame 1.17 | buster 1.10 | FL1T 1.10 | YEKINDAR 1.08 | Qikert 0.99
- Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: YEKINDAR 1.23 | Jame 1.21 | FL1T 1.19 | Qikert 1.08 | buster 1.06
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in August 2021, which was prior to VP adding FL1T and G2 adding m0NESY & Aleksib. VP won that series 2-1 (11-6 Dust2 / 16-11 Mirage / 16-7 Vertigo) though NiKo topped the leaderboards with 67 kills and a 1.24 Rating across three maps played.
Map Projections:
Virtus.pro removes Nuke
G2 removes Overpass
Virtus.pro picks Vertigo
G2 picks Mirage
Virtus.pro removes Dust2
G2 removes Ancient
Inferno is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: VP wins 2-1.
It is impossible to ignore the incredible level of play that NiKo has been bringing to the table at IEM Katowice 2022. He is the MVP of the tournament so far with a 1.50 Rating across 11 maps played, and G2 are the highest rated team during that time with a 1.16 team rating. Plus, NiKo is an experienced player that tends to thrive in a LAN environment, so the crowd at Spodek Arena could give him even more of a boost for this playoff match-up. However, how will the rest of his team perform under such pressure? A young player like m0NESY has never been in such a big spot. G2 have already dropped four maps at this event, including a series loss versus Fnatic, and the odds may be too far in their favor given the fact their roster is still new.
Virtus.pro have been solid at this event with a 1.09 team rating across seven maps played, which ties them as the third highest rated team at IEM Katowice 2022. They were looking near unstoppable prior to their loss against Heroic, and their roster has enough firepower to go toe-to-toe versus a team like G2. Overall, I think they are a capable underdog here, and their experience as a unit could prove to be valuable against G2’s new roster.
VP have been inconsistent on Vertigo with a 2-3 W/L record in the past three months, but I still think it is a strong option for them, especially considering G2 have only played it once with their lineup. Mirage is likely G2’s best option, but they too have been inconsistent having lost two of their last three, plus VP picked Mirage in the quarter-finals of PGL Major Stockholm, so VP must have some level of comfort on the map. Inferno makes the most sense as the decider here, and it has historically been a great map for both teams. I see this series as a coinflip, and I am happy to back VP as an underdog considering their cheap pricing on Draftkings, though NiKo could still be a must-play if he continues his domination.
- On Vertigo, Jame leads VP with a 1.07 K/D ratio, while YEKINDAR leads with a 1.09 Rating across three maps played in 2022.
- On Mirage, buster leads VP with a 1.00 K/D ratio, while FL1T leads with a 1.00 Rating across two maps played in 2022.
- On Inferno, Jame leads VP with a 2.22 K/D ratio and 1.46 Rating across two maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Jame ($7,200) | FL1T ($6,200) | NiKo ($8,800) | YEKINDAR ($8,000) | buster ($4,800) | huNter- ($6,800) | qikert ($5,600) | m0NESY ($8,200)
Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. FaZe (World rank: #9) - 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-145) | FaZe (+120)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+200) | FaZe +1.5 (-250)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group A Upper Bracket Semi-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- Gambit - Rating at event: Ax1Le 1.34 | sh1ro 1.29 | HObbit 1.07 | interz 1.06 | nafany 0.91
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.24 | Ax1Le 1.18 | HObbit 1.13 | interz 1.00 | nafany 1.00
- FaZe - Rating at event: broky 1.31 | Twistzz 1.13 | rain 1.03 | ropz 0.98 | karrigan 0.82
- FaZe - Rating past three months: broky 1.15 | Twistzz 1.12 | ropz 1.11 | rain 1.03 | karrigan 0.88
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in December 2021, which was prior to FaZe adding ropz. Gambit won that series 2-1 (13-16 Inferno / 25-22 Overpass / 16-10 Ancient). Sh1ro had the most kills (82) while Ax1Le was the highest rated player (1.24 Rating) across three maps played.
Map Projections:
FaZe removes Vertigo
Gambit removes Nuke
FaZe picks Inferno
Gambit picks Dust2
FaZe removes Ancient
Gambit removes Mirage
Overpass is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-1.
Ax1Le is back in elite form for Gambit, which makes them a really scary team to face at the moment. Ax1Le is the third highest rated player at the event with a 1.34 Rating across 10 maps played, and sh1ro is not far behind as the sixth highest rated player with a 1.29 Rating. Gambit opened this event with a tough loss to NiP, but they have been on fire since having won three series and five maps in a row. Gambit are the second highest rated team at the event with a 1.14 Rating, and they would surely be a massive favorite here if this event took place online. So, are we really that worried about Gambit having to play on LAN in front of a crowd? Maybe a little bit, but I’ll still be hammering that at (-145) moneyline odds. Gambit are the kings of online, and I think it is about time that they prove themselves consistent in this type of environment as well.
Some people perhaps wrote off FaZe when jks was standing in for ropz to start this event, but ropz ended up testing negative for COVID and was able to join his team again, which makes FaZe a contender again. Broky has also been tearing it up as the fourth highest rated player at IEM Katowice 2022 with a 1.31 Rating across nine maps played. With ropz in the lineup, FaZe have an 8-5 W/L record across 13 maps played, and they should continue to improve as ropz gets adjusted to the lineup. They’ve also historically been good on LAN, which is something to consider, especially against a team like Gambit. Still, they have only recorded best-of-three wins against BIG and Fnatic, and taking two maps from Gambit will be quite the task. FaZe should be underdogs here, and I don’t think the ‘LAN buff’ is enough to justify backing them at measly (+120) moneyline odds, especially when rain might not even be playing in this match-up due to his own positive COVID test. FaZe lack experience with ropz in the lineup, and if rain has to sit then they will be overwhelmed by the experience and discipline of Gambit.
The map pool does look decent for FaZe. They can ban Vertigo to start, which takes away Gambit’s favorite map. They could also decide to punish pick Gambit with Inferno, which has been Gambit’s worst map in the past three months with a 3-4 W/L record. Additionally, the decider map could end up as Overpass or Mirage, which are two solid maps for FaZe. Thus, I do think FaZe are capable of maybe winning a map here, but I still think Gambit should be heavier favorites, and a sweep is entirely possible. On Draftkings, my preferred play would be to stack three from Gambit.
- On Inferno, sh1ro leads Gambit with a 1.34 K/D ratio, while Ax1Le leads with a 1.32 Rating across two maps played in 2022.
- On Dust2, sh1ro leads Gambit with a 1.94 K/D ratio and 1.50 Rating across four maps played in 2022.
- On Overpass, Ax1Le leads Gambit with a 1.50 K/D ratio and 1.44 Rating across three maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Sh1ro ($9,000) | Ax1Le ($8,400) | interz ($5,400) | HObbit ($7,400) | nafany ($6,400) | ropz ($6,600) | broky ($7,800) | Twistzz ($7,000)