PaiN (World rank: #45) vs. Bad News Bears (World rank: #91) - 8:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: PaiN (-750) | Bad News Bears (+525)
Map Handicap: PaiN -1.5 (-180) | Bad News Bears +1.5 (+145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+190) | Under 2.5 (-235)
- This is a best-of-three online series for Group A of ESL Challenger League Season 40 North America
- PaiN - Rating at event: N/A
- PaiN - Rating past three months: nython 1.17 | biguzera 1.12 | hardzao 1.08 | NEKIZ 1.03 | PKL 1.01
- Bad News Bears - Rating at event: MoMo 1.16 | Spongey 1.12 | Pluto 1.12 | Swahn 0.91 | Shakezullah 0.90
- Bad News Bears - Rating past three months: Pluto 1.18 | MoMo 1.17 | Spongey 1.05 | Swahn 1.05 | Shakezullah 1.03
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Bad News Bears removes Vertigo
PaiN removes Mirage
Bad News Bears picks Inferno
PaiN picks Nuke
Bad News Bears removes Overpass
PaiN removes Ancient
Dust2 is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: paiN wins 2-0.
PaiN came into this event as the highest rated team, and they just announced that they have signed nython to replace saffee as their primary AWPer. Saffee was the hard carry for this team and he is a tough player to replace, but nython had to be one of the top Brazilian talents available, and I think he is a great fit, especially considering his 1.17 Rating in the past three months. Bad News Bears have added MoMo, Pluto and Swahn in the past month and their new squad has looked decent with a 7-6 W/L record across 13 maps played. Still, this BNB roster pales in comparison to their lineup from 2021 that included Swisher, junior and Bwills. PaiN are the better team on paper across the board and the Brazilians should win here, but I do think the odds are perhaps too far in their favor as BNB are certainly capable of at least winning a map. Bad News Bears are still playing without the backing of an organization, and they will make every attempt to prove themselves in a match-up like this, so three maps could be a possibility, but I just don't see paiN losing this.
- On Inferno, biguzera leads his team with a 1.10 K/D ratio and 1.09 Rating across nine maps played in the past three months.
- On Nuke, hardzao leads his team with a 1.22 K/D ratio, while biguzera leads with a 1.16 Rating across 12 maps played in the past three months.
- On Dust2, hardzao leads his team with a 1.16 K/D ratio, while biguzera leads with a 1.18 Rating across six maps played in the past three months.
- Nython will be making his debut with the team, but on Isurus he was excellent on Inferno with a 1.15 Rating across three maps played in the past three months and he was also great on Nuke with a 1.11 Rating across five maps played during that time. He did not play any maps on Dust2 in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Biguzera ($9,400) | hardzao ($8,400) | nython ($9,800) | NEKIZ ($6,800) | Swahn ($4,600) | PKL ($6,200) | MoMo ($5,800)
Party Astronauts (World rank: #43) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #59) - 8:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Party Astronauts (-190) | TeamOne (+155)
Map Handicap: Party Astronauts -1.5 (+155) | TeamOne +1.5 (-190)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three online series for Group B of ESL Challenger League Season 40 North America
- Party Astronauts - Rating at event: PwnAlone 1.28 | Jonji 1.27 | djay 1.21 | ben1337 1.09 | viz 0.90
- Party Astronauts - Rating past three months: PwnAlone 1.17 | Jonji 1.16 | djay 1.12 | viz 1.06 | ben1337 1.03
- TeamOne - Rating at event: N/A
- TeamOne - Rating past three months: trk 1.19 | pesadelo 1.09 | xns 1.07 | Maluk3 1.05 | keiz 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced on Sunday at the Grand Final of Mythic Winter Series 2022 Cup 2 and Party Astronauts won 2-0 (16-14 Mirage / 16-10 Inferno). Djay was the highest rated player on the server (1.23 Rating) while pesadelo led with 50 kills across two maps played.
Map Projections:
TeamOne removes Nuke
Party Astronauts removes Vertigo
TeamOne picks Mirage
Party Astronauts picks Inferno
TeamOne removes Ancient
Party Astronauts removes Dust2
Overpass is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: TeamOne wins 2-1.
Party Astronauts recently announced that viz was joining the roster once again as their fifth member, and we have already seen him in action against TeamOne since his return. Party Astronauts did sweep that series 2-0, but TeamOne kept things close on both maps despite falling behind early in the first half on Mirage and Inferno. TeamOne added keiz in January, but it created a weird dynamic in the team because both him and Maluk3 are traditionally primary AWPers. We saw Maluk3 with the AWP in his hands against Party Astronauts last time, but hopefully TeamOne will allow keiz to develop his sniping skills as a young player with more upside. These teams played 12 maps against each other in 2021 and they split them evenly with six wins for each team, and I do believe that the teams are still fairly closely matched regardless of any roster changes. Party Astronauts are the hot team having won eight series in a row, but I think that TeamOne will be better for this rematch since they have had more time to work in keiz. Party Astronauts are in a similar boat with viz, but viz already played for them in 2021, so there was chemistry previously established. Party Astronauts are another team playing without an organization, which means we can generally expect a solid effort from them in a spot like this. Either way, I see this as a coinflip series, and I will happily back TeamOne as a sizable underdog.
- On Mirage, pesadelo leads this lineup with a 1.43 K/D ratio and 1.40 Rating across two maps played together.
- On Inferno, Maluk3 leads this lineup with a 1.52 K/D ratio and 1.43 Rating across two maps played together.
- On Overpass, Maluk3 led his team with a 1.50 K/D ratio and 1.46 Rating in a 16-9 win over ATK.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
pesadelo ($8,000) | Maluk3 ($6,400) | keiz ($5,600) | trk ($9,000) | PwnAlone ($8,200) | xns ($7,000) | viz ($6,000)
X13 (World rank: #121) vs. Eros (World rank: #129) - 8:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: X13 (Even) | Eros (-125)
Map Handicap: X13 +1.5 (-285) | Eros -1.5 (+225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three online series for Group B of ESL Challenger League Season 40 North America
- X13 - Rating at event: halo 0.88 | Garfield 0.81 | scar 0.80 | Makzwell 0.77 | Lemonz 0.71
- X13 - Rating past three months: Garfield 1.12 | Makzwell 1.03 | Lemonz 0.96 | scar 0.94 | halo 0.82
- Eros - Rating at event: omniscient 1.18 | freshie 1.05 | JTMythic 1.02 | shutout 0.92 | rezy1on 0.90
- Eros - Rating past three months: rezy1on 1.05 | freshie 0.99 | omniscient 0.97 | JTMythic 0.93 | shutout 0.81
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Eros removes Dust2
X13 removes Ancient
Eros picks Mirage
X13 picks Inferno
Eros removes Vertigo
X13 removes Dust2
Overpass is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Eros wins 2-0.
X13 announced their new roster earlier in February, which included garfield, who is an unproven 16 year old talent with tremendous upside, as well as halo. We’ve only seen them play two maps so far, which were both losses against Party Astronauts, but this team does seem to have potential. On the other side, we have Eros, who recently brought in rezy1on as their primary AWPer. They have had mixed results with their new lineup with a 5-6 W/L record across 11 maps played, though they are 1-1 at this event compared to 0-1 for X13. Still, Eros appear to be the better team at the moment despite the HLTV rankings favoring X13, and Eros have been particularly strong on Mirage with a 4-0 W/L record and an 89.5% 5v4 conversion rate so far. If you’re backing X13, then you believe in the potential of a young stud like garfield, but for now, Eros look better on paper and should have at least one map in their back pocket with Mirage.
- On Mirage, JTMythic leads his team with a 1.37 K/D ratio, while omniscient leads with a 1.40 Rating across four maps played.
- On Inferno, JTMythic leads his team with a 0.97 K/D ratio and 1.00 Rating across two maps played.
- On Overpass, rezy1on led his team with a 1.24 K/D ratio and 1.13 Rating in their 11-16 loss versus Disconnected.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
JTMythic ($6,000) | rezy1on ($8,800) | freshie ($7,600) | omniscient ($6,600) | garfield ($8,600) | Makzwell ($7,200) | shutout ($5,400)