Vitality (World rank: #3) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #33) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-260) | MOUZ (+210)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+120) | MOUZ +1.5 (-145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group A Upper Bracket Quarter-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- Vitality - Rating at Play-In: N/A
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.34 | dupreeh 1.16 | apEX 1.04 | Magisk 1.03 | misutaaa 1.01
- MOUZ - Rating at Play-In: torzsi 1.28 | frozen 1.19 | JDC 1.14 | dexter 1.07 | NBK- 0.94
- MOUZ - Rating past three months: torzsi 1.26 | frozen 1.12 | JDC 1.10 | dexter 0.96 | NBK- 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
MOUZ removes Overpass
Vitality removes Ancient
MOUZ picks Mirage
Vitality picks Inferno
MOUZ removes Dust2
Vitality removes Nuke
Vertigo is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-0
Bymas tested positive for COVID and is out for this entire event, and JDC did an excellent job in his place during the play-in tournament, leading the server with 53 kills across two maps in MOUZ’ elimination match against Entropiq. Additionally, torzsi was impressive in his debut with the MOUZ’ main roster as he was the third highest rated player at the play-in with a 1.28 Rating across six maps played. Still, this roster was unable to get past FaZe in a best-of-three, and I doubt that they can beat an elite team like Vitality. The French roster had a weak showing on Mirage recently against G2, and I think that map would give MOUZ their best chance of pulling the upset, though MOUZ have looked good recently on Nuke as well. Regardless, Vitality have the superior roster in terms of talent & firepower, and MOUZ can only expect to go so far at IEM Katowice with an inexperienced roster. Vitality took down G2 in a best-of-three when we last saw them play, and we can expect their veteran lineup to perform well in a LAN environment.
On Mirage, ZywOo managed a 0.93 K/D Ratio and 0.96 Rating against G2, despite his team losing 4-16.
On Inferno, ZywOo leads Vitality with a 1.86 K/D ratio and 1.50 Rating across four maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($9,200) | magisk ($6,600) | misutaaa ($5,800) | dupreeh ($8,400) | apEX ($7,600) | torzsi ($7,400)
Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #6) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-300) | Ninjas in Pyjamas (+235)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+110) | Ninjas in Pyjamas +1.5 (-135)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group A Upper Bracket Quarter-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- Gambit - Rating at Play-In: N/A
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.27 | HObbit 1.17 | Ax1Le 1.15 | nafany 1.03 | interz 0.98
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at Play-In: REZ 1.14 | Plopski 1.13 | hampus 1.00 | phzy 1.00 | es3tag 0.98
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: REZ 1.03 | hampus 1.01 | phzy 1.00 | Plopski 0.98 | es3tag 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Vertigo
Gambit removes Nuke
Ninjas in Pyjamas picks Overpass
Gambit picks Dust2
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Inferno
Gambit removes Mirage
Ancient is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-0.
This iteration of NiP with phzy in the lineup has a 12-17 W/L record across 29 maps played together. They made it through the play-in tournament, but their wins came against tier two teams: Wisla Krakow & Movistar Riders. Gambit are an elite team that have started 2022 on fire with an 8-2 W/L record across 10 maps played this year. What map can NiP beat Gambit on? The Ninjas have beaten NAVI on Overpass with this lineup, but Gambit have a 5-1 W/L record on that map in the past three months. Ancient is another map that NiP might consider, but Gambit have a 6-1 W/L record on that map during the same time span, so Gambit’s map pool should be too strong for NiP to overcome. NiP will have to decide between banning Vertigo and Dust2, and either way they will be leaving Gambit with a strong map to pick. I think Gambit sweeps with ease here, even in a LAN environment.
On Overpass, sh1ro leads his team with a 2.00 K/D ratio, while Ax1Le leads with a 1.48 Rating across six maps played in the past three months.
On Dust2, sh1ro leads his team with a 1.35 K/D ratio and 1.23 Rating across 11 maps played in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
sh1ro ($9,400) | Ax1Le ($7,800) | nafany ($6,600) | HObbit ($8,600) | phzy ($6,000) | interz ($5,600)
FaZe (World rank: #9) vs. Liquid (World rank: #54) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-160) | Liquid (+130)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (+175) | Liquid +1.5 (-215)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group B Upper Bracket Quarter-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- FaZe - Rating at Play-In: Twistzz 1.15 | rain 1.11 | broky 1.08 | jks 0.99 | karrigan 0.94
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.11 | broky 1.10 | rain 1.03 | jks 0.99 | karrigan 0.91
- Liquid - Rating at Play-In: N/A
- Liquid - Rating past three months: oSee 1.19 | NAF 1.13 | EliGE 1.06 | shox 0.98 | nitr0 0.80
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams just faced at the end of January at BLAST Premier Spring Groups, but jks is standing in for ropz at this event.
Map Projections:
Liquid removes Nuke
FaZe removes Vertigo
Liquid picks Overpass
FaZe picks Inferno
Liquid removes Mirage
FaZe removes Ancient
Dust2 is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-1.
These teams were pretty closely matched at BLAST Premier Spring Groups with both best-of-ones on Inferno going to overtime. However, those were two out of the first three official maps that Liquid played with their new lineup, and now FaZe are without ropz, who tested positive for COVID. Jks has done a solid job standing in on short notice, but it will be difficult for him to replicate ropz’ level of firepower, especially since jks was coming off of a personal break from Counter-Strike. FaZe won both of their series during the play-in tournament, but their performance was not overly impressive as they needed 28 rounds to beat Sprout on Overpass and they lost 7-16 against MOUZ on Nuke with JDC standing in for MOUZ. We haven’t seen enough of Liquid’s map pool to fully know what to expect here, but I get the sense that this is a coinflip match-up, and I may even give Liquid a slight edge as they will have more experience this time while FaZe are playing with a stand-in. Either way, I am happy to back Liquid as the underdog here.
- On Overpass, NAF led his team with a 1.21 K/D ratio and 1.18 Rating across 18 maps played in 2021.
- On Inferno, oSee leads his team with a 1.22 K/D ratio, while NAF leads with a 1.26 Rating across three maps played with this lineup.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NAF ($7,200) | oSee ($7,800) | EliGE ($6,400) | broky ($8,000) | shox ($5,600) | Twistzz ($8,800)
Astralis (World rank: #7) vs. FURIA (World rank: #16) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-165) | FURIA (+135)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+180) | FURIA +1.5 (-220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Group B Upper Bracket Quarter-Finals of IEM Katowice 2022
- Astralis - Rating at Play-In: k0nfig 1.22 | gla1ve 1.17 | blameF 1.02 | Xyp9x 0.97 | Lucky 0.90
- Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.17 | k0nfig 1.04 | gla1ve 0.98 | Lucky 0.94 | Xyp9x 0.92
- FURIA - Rating at Play-In: N/A
- FURIA - Rating past three months: saffee 1.25 | KSCERATO 1.02 | arT 0.95 | yuurih 0.92 | drop 0.91
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
FURIA removes Dust2
Astralis removes Vertigo
FURIA picks Inferno
Astralis picks Nuke
FURIA removes Overpass
Astralis removes Ancient
Mirage is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.
I don’t have much confidence in either of these teams at the moment. With saffee in the lineup, FURIA have a 4-5 W/L record across nine maps played, but they haven’t beaten any notable teams, so this match-up on LAN against Astralis will be a massive test for their new roster. As for Astralis, their current lineup still feels disjointed at times and they have a 9-12 W/L record across 21 maps played in 2022. Astralis have historically been good on LAN, and they have a winning record on LAN with their current lineup with a 15-14 W/L across 29 maps played. There are plenty of questions surrounding both teams at the moment, but there is certainly more doubt towards the Brazilian side. Inferno has been FURIA’s favorite map in the past, but they’ve lost it both times with their new lineup, and their 5v4 conversion rate is a measly 38.9% during that time. Thus, I have to give Astralis an edge here in terms of the maps, though I could see this being a tight series between two stumbling teams.
- On Inferno, k0nfig leads his team with a 1.31 K/D ratio and 1.24 Rating across six maps played in the past three months.
- On Nuke, blameF leads his team with a 1.04 K/D ratio and 1.08 Rating across 13 maps played in the past three months.
- On Mirage, blameF leads his team with a 1.33 K/D ratio and 1.26 Rating across 11 maps played in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
k0nfig ($8,000) | blameF ($9,000) | Lucky ($6,400) | yuurih ($4,800) | gla1ve ($7,200) | KSCERATO ($7,000) | Xyp9x ($5,200) | saffee ($8,200)