Fnatic (World rank: #11) vs. Apeks (World rank: #47) - 9:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (-240) | Apeks (+195)
Map Handicap: Fnatic -1.5 (+125) | Apeks +1.5 (-155)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three online series for the quarter-finals of Pinnacle Winter Series 1
- Fnatic - Rating at event: N/A (Playoff invite)
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: Brollan 1.15 | mezii 1.15 | smooya 1.14 | KRIMZ 1.04 | ALEX 1.01
- Apeks - Rating at event: jkaem 1.22 | chawzyyy 1.13 | AcilioN 1.11 | nawwk 1.08 | STYKO 1.06
- Apeks - Rating past three months: jkaem 1.22 | AcilioN 1.14 | chawzyyy 1.12 | nawwk 1.07 | STYKO 1.07
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Fnatic removes Dust2
Apeks removes Nuke
Fnatic picks Inferno
Apeks picks Ancient
Fnatic removes Vertigo
Apeks removes Overpass
Mirage is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Apeks wins 2-1.
This new Apeks lineup has won 16 out of 22 maps played so far. They went 3-0 in the group stage of this event with wins against BLINK, SKADE and Endpoint, and then they swept Endpoint again to start the playoffs. This team is on fire already, and their roster will likely continue to improve over time, which makes them a legitimate tier two threat. However, Fnatic have been the tier two stompers so far having won 36 out of 48 maps played together with most of their success coming against tier two opponents. Fnatic have struggled recently having lost three series in a row, but all of those series went the distance to three maps against elite teams: Gambit, Astralis and BIG. Still, I think that Apeks’ roster is very underrated at the moment as the #47 ranked team in the world, while Fnatic are certainly overrated at #11 in the world, and I think the odds are not giving Apeks enough credit. Yes, these are the types of series that Fnatic have proven that they can win, but I still think that this Apeks roster has a ton of potential, and I think they are a live underdog in this spot since they have some veterans on their squad, so this could be a tight series.
Neither of these teams like to play Dust2, so the map veto will come down to which team decides to ban that map. I think that Apeks would be smart to veto Nuke right away considering Fnatic have their highest win rate on that map while Apeks have their lowest. Inferno makes the most sense as the map pick for Fnatic in this scenario as it is their most played map and their record is solid at 9-3, while Apeks have a 1-2 record on that map. The rest of the map pool does seem like it go could either way with Apeks having potential to win on Ancient, Mirage, Vertigo, and maybe even Overpass. I’m predicting the upset because the value is too good to pass up given the players who will be on the server, and on Draftkings my preference would be to stack two from Apeks with someone like smooya as a one-off from Fnatic.
- On Inferno, Jkaem leads Apeks in K/D ratio (1.10) and Rating (1.05) across three maps played.
- On Ancient, nawwk leads Apeks in K/D ratio (1.27), while AcilioN leads in Rating (1.31) across five maps played.
- On Mirage, nawwk leads Apeks in K/D ratio (1.57), while jkaem leads in Rating (1.44) across six maps played.
- On Inferno, smooya leads Fnatic in K/D ratio (1.43) and Rating (1.25) across 12 maps played.
- On Ancient, Brollan leads Fnatic in K/D ratio (1.16) and Rating (1.20) across five maps played
- On Mirage, smooya leads Fnatic in K/D ratio (1.33), while Brollan leads in Rating (1.28) across seven maps played
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
jkaem ($7,800) | nawwk ($5,000) | smooya ($7,600) | AcilioN ($7,000) | mezii ($8,400) | STYKO ($4,600) | Brollan ($9,400) | chawzyyy ($6,000)
* nawwk is listed as questionable on Draftkings, but he should be playing as far as we know at this point
FURIA (World rank: #13) vs. Wisla Krakow (World rank: #34) - 12:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FURIA (-210) | Wisla Krakow (+170)
Map Handicap: FURIA -1.5 (+145) | Wisla Krakow +1.5 (-180)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three online series for the quarter-finals of Pinnacle Winter Series 1
- FURIA - Rating at event: N/A (Playoff invite)
- FURIA - Rating past three months: saffee 1.33 | yuurih 1.12 | KSCERATO 1.05 | arT 0.95 | drop 0.89
- Wisla Krakow - Rating at event: snatchie 1.28 | Sobol 1.24 | Goofy 1.21 | jedqr 1.18 | SZPERO 1.06
- Wisla Krakow - Rating past three months: Sobol 1.16 | Goofy 1.13 | snatchie 1.12 | jedqr 1.10 | SZPERO 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
FURIA removes Dust2
Wisla Krakow removes Vertigo
FURIA picks Inferno
Wisla Krakow picks Nuke
FURIA removes Overpass
Wisla Krakow removes Ancient
Mirage is left over
Prediction/Narrative: FURIA wins 2-0.
This series is the debut for saffee in the FURIA lineup, which could be exciting considering the Brazilian AWPer finished 2021 with a 1.27 rating and 0.82 kills per round across 252 maps played. FURIA have not been the same since they lost their former AWPer, Hen1, and bringing in an elite sniper seems like a logical move for them. However, this Brazilian roster added drop to their roster from FURIA Academy for the final few months of 2021, so there are a few moving parts here, and we don’t know exactly what to expect from them. On the other side, Wisla Krakow have been rolling with their new roster having won 21 out of 31 maps played with new addition snatchie leading the way with a 1.27 K/D ratio and 1.22 Rating during that time. They opened this event with a loss to SKADE, but they have now won four series in a row against BLINK, GamerLegion, Tricked and MOUZ NXT. Wisla Krakow are actually the highest rated team at the event with a 1.20 Rating across 12 maps played, but I think they are severely outmatched by the firepower the KSCERATO, yuurih and saffee should provide. Overall, I think that FURIA should be a much bigger favorite here. Sure, they are debuting a new player, but Wisla Krakow have a fairly new roster too, and the Brazilians simply have a much more talented roster.
Inferno has historically been FURIA’s favorite map, while Wisla Krakow do not play it often, though they do have a 2-0 record on it with their current lineup. FURIA played Inferno 20 times in 2021 and they finished with a respectable 22-18 W/L record including wins against teams such as NAVI, Gambit, MOUZ, and Liquid. Saffee was excellent on Inferno last year with a 1.22 Rating across 51 maps played, and I think FURIA will find immediate success on that map. Wisla Krakow’s best chance of stealing a map here would probably be on Nuke, where they have won six in a row. However, FURIA were also solid on Nuke last year with an 18-15 W/L record, and Nuke is also one of saffee’s best maps with a 1.34 Rating across 66 maps played in 2021, so I do think FURIA are still favorites on that map and starting CT could give them the early momentum. Overall, I don’t see Wisla Krakow finding a map here, despite the inexperience of this new FURIA roster. On Draftkings, my preference would be to stack three from FURIA with KSCERATO and saffee as the main targets.
- On Inferno, KSCERATO led FURIA in 2021 in K/D ratio (1.22) and Rating (1.19) across 40 maps played
- On Nuke, KSCERATO led FURIA in 2021 in K/D ratio (1.26) and Rating (1.23) across 33 maps played
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
KSCERATO ($7,400) | saffee ($9,000) | yuurih ($8,200) | arT ($6,200) | snatchie ($6,600) drop ($5,600)