MAD Lions (World rank: #24) vs. Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #14) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: MAD Lions (+150) | Copenhagen Flames (-185)
Map Handicap: MAD Lions +1.5 (-190) | Copenhagen Flames -1.5 (+155)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Malta Vibes Knockout Series 4
- MAD Lions - Rating at event: TMB 1.14 | jL 1.07 | Woro2k 0.91 | sausol 0.89 | b0RUP 0.70
- MAD Lions - Rating past three months: Woro2k 1.14 | jL 1.08 | b0RUP 1.01 | sausol 1.01 | TMB 1.01
- Copenhagen Flames - Rating at event: Zyphon 1.52 | roeJ 1.33 | nicoodoz 1.27 | jabbi 1.16 | HooXi 1.13
- Copenhagen Flames - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.19 | nicoodoz 1.08 | Zyphon 1.04 | jabbi 1.04 | HooXi 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Projected Maps:
MAD Lions removes Vertigo
Copenhagen Flames removes Dust2
MAD Lions picks Inferno
Copenhagen Flames picks Overpass
MAD Lions removes Ancient
Copenhagen Flames removes Mirage
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Copenhagen Flames wins 2-1.
Copenhagen Flames have been inconsistent since their run at PGL Major Stockholm, and they have lost a majority of their maps played in the past month (16-17 W/L record across 33 maps played). However, they’ve been solid in the past week with wins against Sprout, Movistar Riders, and AVE and their only loss was against BLINK. We found out on Thursday that this Copenhagen roster would be transferred to Complexity, and perhaps the exciting news of being picked up by a respected organization has sparked some energy for the Danes. MAD Lions have also had mixed results in the past month with a 17-17 W/L record across 34 maps played, and they often seem to struggle against higher ranked teams. I think that Copenhagen have a much more talented roster, but MAD Lions do have some potential in this series, especially on Inferno. CPH Flames have their lowest win rate of any map in the pool in the past three months on Inferno (besides Dust2, which is their usual ban) with a 6-13 W/L record across 19 maps played. Inferno has been MAD Lions most played map in the past three months, and they will likely be able to punish the Danes with that map. The rest of the map pool should generally favor Copenhagen though. The Flames may decide to pick Overpass considering they have their highest win rate of any map in the pool in the past three months on that that map with a 12-3 W/L record. MAD Lions do not play a lot of Overpass and lost their only time playing it in the past month. Nuke could be the decider, and Copenhagen Flames have been excellent on that map as well with a 13-4 W/L record across 17 maps played. Overall, Copenhagen should have this series in three maps, and they are talented enough to possibly even sweep.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
nicoodoz ($8,400) | roeJ ($9,600) | Zyphon ($6,200) | jabbi ($7,200) | jL ($6,800) | Woro2k ($7,800)
- Nicoodoz should have a safe floor on Inferno in the event that the map is one-sided in the favor of MAD Lions considering he leads his team with a 0.99 K/D ratio across 19 maps played in the past three months. RoeJ is the only member of Copenhagen rated above one in that time with a 1.01 Rating.
- RoeJ has the highest K/D ratio on his team on Overpass at 1.21 across 15 maps played during the past three months, though nicoodoz is right behind him at 1.20. Zyphon has been a standout performer as well with a 1.15 Rating during that time, which puts him second on his team only to roeJ.
- JL is the highest rated member of MAD Lions on Inferno with a 1.08 Rating on Inferno across 20 maps played in the past three months. He also has a better rating than Woro2k on Overpass, which makes him my preferred target on MAD Lions.
mouz NXT (World rank: #26) vs. 1WIN (World rank: #33) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: mouz NXT (-165) | 1WIN (+135)
Map Handicap: mouz NXT -1.5 (+175) | 1WIN +1.5 (-220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Malta Vibes Knockout Series 4
- mouz NXT - Rating at event: xertioN 1.23 | torzsi 1.21 | JDC 1.10 | siuhy 1.07 | szejn 1.07
- mouz NXT - Rating past three months: torzsi 1.26 | xertioN 1.19 | siuhy 1.13 | JDC 1.11 | szejn 1.09
- 1WIN - Rating at event: deko 1.28 | TRAVIS 1.27 | Ravenlot 1.01 | glowing 0.92 | Polt 0.91
- 1WIN - Rating past three months: deko 1.23 | glowing 1.16 | TRAVIS 1.14 | Polt 1.02 | Ravenlot 1.01
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced in October at the Malta Vibes 3 and 1WIN won 2-1 (10-16 Vertigo / 16-9 Mirage / 16-11 Nuke). Glowiing was the top performer with 61 kills and a 1.19 Rating across three maps.
Projected Maps:
mouz NXT removes Overpass
1WIN removes Inferno
mouz NXT picks Mirage
1WIN picks Vertigo
mouz NXT removes Ancient
1WIN removes Dust2
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: 1WIN wins 2-1.
1WIN looked like the clear better team when these rosters last met. Sure, they came out slow on their own map pick with MOUZ NXT taking a 15-4 on Vertigo, which eventually resulted in a 16-10 win for the academy team. From there, 1WIN were laser-focused, and they dominated on Mirage, 16-9, with a 1.37 team Rating. On the decider map, Nuke, 1WIN got off to a 10-3 start on T side, and there was never any doubt that they weren't going to win both of the second and third maps. Thus, I was surprised to see MOUZ NXT as (-165) moneyline favorites in this rematch. MOUZ NXT have continued to tear apart the tier two scene and have won 47 of their 60 maps played in the past three months, so they are certainly a strong team. They have played four top 30 teams in the past month, and they had mixed results. In November, they got swept by Extra Salt and lost 2-1 to ECSTATIC/Lyngby Vikings, but they also swept BLINK & Dignitas. 1WIN are just outside of the top 30 at number 33, but they are in the upper echelon of tier two teams. 1WIN have more experience against this level of competition having won 21 out of 37 maps played against top 30 teams in the past three months. MOUZ NXT have better stats across the board, which is heavily influenced by the level of their opponents, and I think that 1WIN are perhaps underrated for that reason. Either way, there are a lot of reasons to like 1WIN as an underdog in this spot.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
deko ($8,800) | glowiing ($7,600) | TRAVIS ($6,600) | Ravenlot ($4,800) | JDC ($6,400) | torzsi ($9,200) | Polt ($5,800)
- Deko leads his team in K/D ratio and Rating on both Mirage and Vertigo (1.34 K/D ratio, 1.22 Rating on Mirage | 1.33 K/D ratio, 1.21 Rating on Vertigo). Glowiing is second on his team on both maps, TRAVIS is third on both maps.
- JDC has been a notable performer on Vertigo with a 1.25 K/D ratio and 1.23 Rating across nine maps played, which could make him an interesting value option on Draftkings.