Paqueta (World rank: #65) vs. DETONA (World rank: #111) - 4:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Paqueta (-700) | DETONA (+400)
Map Handicap: Paqueta -1.5 (-155) | DETONA +1.5 (+105)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+155) | Under 2.5 (-230)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the CBCS Elite League 2021 Season 2 Playoffs.
- Paqueta - Rating at event: iDk 1.39 | dav1d 1.22 | nython 1.21 | KHTEX 1.02 | DeStiNy 1.00
- Paqueta - Rating past three months: dav1d 1.15 | nython 1.12 | DeStiNy 1.10 | KHTEX 1.04 | iDk 1.02
- DETONA - Rating at event: nqz 1.27 | NikoM 1.13 | lux 1.11 | phx 0.94 | frostezoR 0.92
- DETONA - Rating past three months: nqz 1.23 | NikoM 1.02 | lux 1.00 | phx 0.98 | frostezoR 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters played one map against each other on June 11th at the CBCS Retake Series 2021 S1. Paqueta won 16-11 on Dust2 and nython led the way with 25 Kills and a 1.52 Rating. Every member of Paqueta had a positive K/D ratio besides iDk, while NikoM was the only member of DETONA to have a positive K/D ratio, and he also had the highest ADR on the server at 86.0.
Projected Maps:
Paqueta removes Inferno
DETONA removes Vertigo
Paqueta picks Overpass
DETONA picks Dust2
Paqueta removes Mirage
DETONA removes Nuke
Ancient is left over.
Paqueta - Key stats on Overpass past three months (14 maps): 11-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 74.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.1% round win percent after receiving first death
Paqueta - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (14 maps): dav1d +71 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | DeStiNy +34 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | iDk +21 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | KHTEX +46 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | nython +2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Paqueta - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (12 maps): 10-2 W/L record, 54.2% pistol round win percent, 73.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 36.7% round win percent after receiving first death
Paqueta - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (12 maps): dav1d +47 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | nython +63 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | DeStiNy +6 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | KHTEX +5 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
DETONA - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.8% round win percent after receiving first death
DETONA - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): nqz +46 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | lux +13 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | frostezoR +15 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | NikoM +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
DETONA- Key stats on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 74.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.8% round win percent after receiving first death
DETONA - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): nqz +38 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | NikoM +1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | phx +3 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Analysis:
We have two heavy favorites on this slate with Paqueta and Bravos, and both of them need to win on Thursday to secure RMR points, but if I had to pick against one of the two it would be Paqueta. A loss here for Paqueta would be devastating since they are currently in third place in the South American RMR standings, so I expect to see a strong performance from them, but it would not be all that surprising to see DETONA keep things close and maybe even steal a map.
Inferno and Vertigo should get banned to start, but the map picks are not necessarily cut-and-dry. Overpass has been the most played map for Paqueta in the past three months, and they have looked solid on that map, so it makes a lot of sense as their map pick, though DETONA are no slouches on Overpass. Nuke is a possibility as well, but Paqueta have really struggled on T side Nuke recently, so I am not expecting them to go that direction. DETONA do not have a comfortable map pick in this series especially since Inferno should be banned, so I would expect them to go for a map like Dust2 that they have played a lot. Dust2 is a strong map for Paqueta, but it is also a map where DETONA have a decent chance of pulling the upset on if they can just hit their shots. We could see Ancient as the decider map in this scenario, and Paqueta have won four times in a row on that map.
Paqueta should win one way or another, but I think that a 2-1 or even a tight 2-0 could be in the cards. A three stack from Paqueta would still be the safest move, but the pricing makes that tough, so I think that some light exposure to DETONA could be viable. Dav1d should be a strong play, but I would rather get to the primary AWPer, nython, for $1,000 cheaper on Draftkings in this spot. DeStiNy has not had his best performance at this event, so $8,200 feels a bit too expensive for him here, but he is still in my player pool. One of the two remaining players, KHTEX and iDk, will probably end up as a good value play at their cheap price, but neither one necessarily feels safe. I would prefer iDk since he is only $6,200 and has been the highest rated player on his team at this event so far. If you wanted to mix in one player from DETONA into your lineup, then nqz would certainly be the player to target. NikoM and lux would be the other two that I might consider, but neither one has the same potential upside as nqz.
SWS (World rank: #151) vs. Bravos (World rank: #63) - 6:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: SWS (+395) | Bravos (-650)
Map Handicap: SWS +1.5 (+115) | Bravos -1.5 (-150)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-120)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the CBCS Elite League 2021 Season 2 Playoffs.
- SWS - Rating at event: Gafolo 1.36 | matios 1.25 | chay 1.23 | RICIOLI 1.07 | texxas 0.89
- SWS - Rating past three months: Gafolo 1.18 | matios 1.10 | chay 1.09 | RICIOLI 0.98 | texxas 0.89
- Bravos - Rating at event: JOTA 1.35 | Tuurtle 1.33 | WOOD7 1.16 | kaiG 1.07 | Leomonster 1.03
- Bravos - Rating past three months: Tuurtle 1.23 | JOTA 1.22 | WOOD7 1.11 | kaiG 1.11 | Leomonster 1.06
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Projected Maps:
SWS removes Overpass
Bravos removes Mirage
SWS picks Dust2
Bravos picks Inferno
SWS removes Vertigo
Bravos removes Ancient
Nuke is left over.
SWS - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 84.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.6% round win percent after receiving first death
SWS - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (2 maps): chay (1 map) +10 K/D Diff, 1.72 Rating | Gafolo +13 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | matios +8 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | RICIOLI +7 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating
SWS - Key stats on Inferno past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 63.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.0% round win percent after receiving first death
SWS - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (2 maps): matios +6 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Gafolo +7 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | RICIOLI 0 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Bravos - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): 6-4 W/L record, 30.0% pistol round win percent, 72.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.4% round win percent after receiving first death
Bravos - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): JOTA +72 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | Tuurtle +46 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | kaiG +8 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | WOOD7 +4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Bravos - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 71.4% pistol round win percent, 78.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 41.9% round win percent after receiving first death
Bravos - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): WOOD7 +57 K/D Diff, 1.45 Rating | Tuurtle +64 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | JOTA +50 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | Leomonster +15 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | kaiG +1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Analysis:
Once again, we have a heavy favorite that is fighting for RMR points and needs to win here. I think this should be an easy 2-0 for Bravos, and they should still come out on top even if SWS puts up a good fight. SWS has limited experience with their roster considering chay just signed with the team back in July, and texxas is the coach that is filling in for reix (who is unable to compete in Valve events until next year). All signs point to a dominant victory for Bravos.
SWS will likely ban Overpass, so Bravos will need to pick another map like Inferno or Nuke. I think that they would prefer to float Nuke through as a potential decider map, so Inferno makes the most sense to me. Bravos should ban Mirage, so Dust2 could be a possible map pick for SWS. They have only played four maps with texxas so far, and Dust2 and Mirage are the only maps that they have won on with this lineup. I am sure that they have been working on other maps in the meantime, but Dust2 seems the most likely here. Nuke would probably be the decider map in this scenario. Overall, the map pool should be pretty comfortable for Bravos with Mirage out of the way.
My favorite stack on the slate would be three players from Bravos, though the salaries are rather expensive of course. It would be difficult to fit Tuurtle and JOTA into your lineup, and I would prefer Tuurtle in this spot, though JOTA has a higher rating at this event. My favorite option based on pricing would be WOOD7, who is the primary AWPer for Bravos and is only $7,400 on Draftkings. The map pool should be favorable for him, and his pricing is simply too cheap for this match-up. There does not appear to be a ton of value on this slate, so Leomonster looks like one of the top value plays at $6,600. KaiG is not a priority for me at $8,400, but he should be a fine play as well. I do not plan to have much, if any, exposure to the SWS side of things, but Gafolo could be worth a shot at $5,800. My other favorite would be chay at $4,600, but both come with a great deal of risk.
**Favorite Stacks: Bravos, Paqueta
**Favorite CPT plays: WOOD7, Tuurtle, nython, JOTA, dav1d, DeStiNy
**Favorite value plays: Leomonster, iDk, nqz