Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. FaZe (World rank: #4) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-250) | FaZe (+200)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+125) | FaZe (-150)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.34 | electronic 1.09 | Perfecto 1.06 | B1T 1.05 | Boombl4 1.02
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.36 | electronic 1.15 | B1T 1.12 | Perfecto 1.06 | Boombl4 0.94
- FaZe - Rating at event: broky 1.14 | Twistzz 1.11 | rain 1.03 | olofmeister 1.02 | karrigan 0.93
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.13 | broky 1.12 | rain 1.03 | olofmeister 0.95 | karrigan 0.90
Prediction/Narrative:
These teams are competing for first place in the group, which would also give them a bye for the first round of playoffs, so there is plenty at stake here. FaZe are also at risk of not even making playoffs despite currently sitting second in the group with a 3-1 W/L record, so they will have extra motivation while NAVI is automatically in the playoffs already. NAVI dominated this match-up back in July at IEM Cologne, and they certainly have a stronger map pool than FaZe right now, so they should have a clear advantage on Tuesday. FaZe did have a real chance of sweeping NAVI when these rosters last faced online at the BLAST Premier Spring Final, and I expect this match-up to be closer than last time with FaZe maybe even winning a map. NAVI is the highest rated team in this group so far, and I expect them to come out on top in this spot given the stakes. NAVI wins 2-1.
Favorite Draftkings Play: s1mple ($9,800)
S1mple has been ‘quiet’ the past two days, but even then, he has still had a 1.18 Rating across his past four maps played. We need a much bigger day out of him to pay off his salary as the most expensive player on the slate, and I definitely expect him to show up with first place in the group on the line. He currently sits as the second highest rated player at this event behind ZywOo with a 1.34 Rating compared to 1.36 for the Frenchman, and I am sure that he would love to take that top spot. S1mple has all of the motivation that he could possibly need, and he is my number one priority on this slate. I could see this being a tight series, so I prefer to stick with the studs on either side rather than the value options for DFS.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
electronic ($8,600) | B1T ($7,600) | broky ($7,800) | Twistzz ($8,800)
BIG (World rank: #10) vs. mousesports (World rank: #14) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (+110) | mousesports (-135)
Map Handicap: BIG +1.5 (-265) | mousesports (+210)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.19 | tabseN 1.11 | tiziaN 1.03 | k1to 0.97 | gade 0.95
- BIG - Rating past three months: syrsoN 1.13 | tabseN 1.10 | gade 1.07 | k1to 0.97 | tiziaN 0.95
- Mouz - Rating at event: frozen 1.14 | ropz 1.11 | Bymas 1.09 | dexter 1.03 | acoR 0.93
- Mouz - Rating past three months: ropz 1.18 | frozen 1.09 | Bymas 1.01 | dexter 0.94 | acoR 0.94
Prediction/Narrative:
For mousesports, it is simple: Win this series and they advance to playoffs. They got off to an 0-2 start to begin group play, but they did not lose hope with their toughest match-ups behind them, and now they still have a chance to qualify. BIG needs to win too, but they also need either FaZe to beat NAVI or Evil Geniuses to beat Fnatic. These teams have faced each other three times this year and mouz won two of those meetings with BIG winning the most recent, though that last result came at a charity tournament. Mousesports have a 1.06 Rating across nine maps played at this event, while BIG have a 1.05 Rating during that time, so this does seem to be a pretty even match-up. I think that there is upside with BIG given the potential that they have shown with gade joining the team, and I prefer to take the underdogs rather than trust Mouz to win three days in a row. BIG wins 2-1.
Favorite Draftkings Play: syrsoN ($9,000)
SyrsoN usually ‘smells blood in the water’ when he goes up against weak AWPers, and acoR has been exactly that as the lowest rated member of mousesports at this event. AcoR is certainly capable of playing better, but syrsoN could be in for another monster performance if he is able to get away with some unreasonable peeks. This could be a safe play even if mousesports go on to win, but if BIG pull the upset then syrsoN could easily be the top DFS performer. My preference would be to pair syrsoN with one of the mid-range/value options on BIG, like gade or tabseN.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
gade ($6,800) | tabseN ($8,000) | k1to ($6,000) | ropz ($9,200)
Evil Geniuses (World rank: #23) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #34) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Evil Geniuses (+165) | Fnatic (-200)
Map Handicap: EG +1.5 (-190) | Fnatic -1.5 (+150)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- EG - Rating at event: oBo 1.06 | Brehze 1.00 | CeRq 0.91 | MICHU 0.84 | daps 0.78
- EG - Rating past three months: oBo 1.05 | Brehze 0.97 | CeRq 0.96 | MICHU 0.96 | daps 0.78
- Fnatic - Rating at event: Brollan 1.10 | mezii 1.07 | KRIMZ 0.97 | ALEX 0.92 | Jackinho 0.92
Fnatic - Rating past three months: mezii 1.21 | Brollan 1.12 | Jackinho 0.97 | KRIMZ 0.96 | ALEX 0.92
Prediction/Narrative:
To qualify for playoffs, Fnatic would need to beat EG, plus they would need NAVI to beat FaZe as well. Meanwhile, Evil Geniuses are the only team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. A lot of people will probably write off EG given the circumstances, especially since they are playing with their coach, but this Fnatic roster is still new as well and still have some of their own issues. I do think that Evil Geniuses can win a map here, and if I was betting this match-up then I might consider their odds as an upset pick, but Fnatic has to be the focus for DFS based on pricing. Fnatic should be motivated to win while Evil Geniuses seemingly having no pressure, but I do think that the North Americans are desperate to put a win on the board. Either way, Fnatic are more likely to win here to try and secure a playoff spot. Fnatic wins 2-1.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Brollan ($5,400)
Does Draftkings know something that we don’t? The three most expensive plays from this series are all on the EG side, and Brollan is the cheapest player on the server, even cheaper than daps! Draftkings originally forgot to add Brollan to the player pool for this slate, which might be part of the reason that he is so ridiculously cheap. He is one of the most solid options on his team, and on the entire slate, so this price tag is an absolute no brainer. If you like EG, then you should probably just bet on them as an underdog rather than play them in DFS because all of the value on Draftkings is on the Fnatic side, though KRIMZ and ALEX are a bit pricey, all things considered.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
mezii ($7,000) | jackinho ($6,200)