BIG (World rank: #11) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #65) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (-185) | Fnatic (+150)
Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+155) | Fnatic +1.5 (-195)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- BIG - Rating at event: tabseN 1.67 | syrsoN 1.47 | k1to 1.13 | tiziaN 1.06 | gade 0.98
- BIG - Rating past three months: syrsoN 1.13 | gade 1.10 | tabseN 1.10 | k1to 0.97 | tiziaN 0.95
- Fnatic - Rating at event: mezii 1.16 | Brollan 1.09 | KRIMZ 0.90 | ALEX 0.90 | Jackinho 0.52
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: mezii 1.23 | Brollan 1.20 | Jackinho 0.97 | KRIMZ 0.94 | ALEX 0.90
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did play each other in 2020, but Fnatic has three new members since then with Jackinho, mezii and ALEX, while XANTARES was still on BIG instead of gade, plus XANTARES had the most kills on the server across two maps. Thus, the history behind these teams is pretty irrelevant.
Prediction/Narrative:
BIG wins 2-1. Both of these teams have banned Ancient in the past, so we can expect to see that map out of the pool, though they can’t both ban it, and one team could instead use their ban to take away a strong map from their opponent. BIG should pick Dust2 if it is available, while Fnatic will probably go for Overpass again considering they took NAVI to double overtime on that map on Friday. Brollan and mezii can frag for Fnatic, but I do not really trust the other three to be consistent. I think that BIG should have an edge on any map besides maybe Overpass or Mirage, and BIG might just ban Mirage right off the bat. Inferno would probably be a coinflip, and BIG should be a favorite on any other map, especially Dust2 and Vertigo. We still have to see more from both of these teams to know exactly where they stand, but I like what BIG showed with gade and I have them winning this series on Saturday.
Favorite Draftkings Play: syrsoN ($9,000)
When syrsoN goes up against an opponent with a weak AWPer, he usually seems to get so comfortable that he becomes completely unstoppable. I do think that Jackinho is talented, but he was awful in his team’s first series of ESL Pro League S14, finishing with 22 Kills and 53 Deaths across two maps (one of which went to double overtime). His next lowest teammate had 42 kills, which goes to show how poor of a performance it was from Jackinho. It probably can’t get any worse than that for Jackinho, but syrsoN could be set up for a monster day regardless. He had 81 DK points on Friday, and he is capable of matching that or even exceeding it in this spot, plus his salary dropped $800 on Saturday which makes it easier to fit him into your lineup. Overpass and Dust2 are two of his best maps, which should only help. I also think that tabseN and k1to are excellent value plays as well.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
tabseN ($7,200) | k1to ($6,400) | gade ($8,200) | mezii ($7,400)
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. mousesports (World rank: #12) - 10:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-265) | mousesports (+210)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+115) | mousesports +1.5 (-140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.54 | B1T 1.25 | electronic 1.10 | Boombl4 1.04 | Perfecto 0.99
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.37 | electronic 1.15 | B1T 1.13| Perfecto 1.05 | Boombl4 0.93
- mousesports - Rating at event: ropz 1.28 | Bymas 1.02 | dexter 0.97 | frozen 0.94 | acoR 0.87
- mousesports - Rating past three months: ropz 1.23 | frozen 1.08 | Bymas 0.99 | acoR 0.95 | dexter 0.94
H2H Data:
These rosters faced each other on April 29th at DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 in a best-of-one on Overpass and NAVI won 16-14. S1mple led the way with 31 Kills and a 1.59 Rating, while frozen was not far behind with 27 Kills, and ropz was third with 22 Kills. This was B1T’s first map as the official fifth member of NAVI since flamie had just gotten benched and NAVI was using a six man roster prior.
Prediction/Narrative:
NAVI wins 2-0. NAVI is a three-headed monster right now with s1mple, electronic and B1T, and I think that if the voting happened today that s1mple would be the HLTV number one player of 2021, with electronic and B1T both comfortably in the top 20. Mousesports seems to have too many inconsistent players to be able to compete with the number one team in the world, and we can’t really trust anybody on that team besides ropz. I can’t think of any maps that mousesports would beat NAVI on, though Ancient might be their best chance based on their performance on Friday against FaZe. I do think that they could maybe keep things close Nuke. S1mple is statistically the best player in the world on Nuke in 2021 with an incredible 1.44 Rating on that map, though ropz and frozen are both in the top five against tier one competition on Nuke this year as well. Mousesports are certainly capable of winning some rounds and may have a chance of stealing a map, but I think that NAVI will figure out a way to win and outplay them when it matters most.
Favorite Draftkings Play: s1mple ($9,400)
S1mple continued his godlike form that he showed at IEM Cologne against Fnatic on Friday, and now we get to play him for $1,200 cheaper on Draftkings on Saturday. At $9,400, s1mple is a must-play for me on this slate. His ownership will be ridiculously high, and you might wonder if it is worth fading him, but his off days happen so rarely that it almost never seems worth betting against him. S1mple is playing his best counter-strike ever, and I think that part of it has to do with having confidence in his teammates, especially with B1T stepping up as a reliable option for NAVI. I really like B1T as well, and electronic looks good too, but s1mple has to be the priority with this pricing. I would rather get to ropz at $7,200 than Perfecto at $6,600 or Boombl4 at $6,200 because ropz can definitely still put up solid stats in a loss.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
B1T ($8,000) | electronic ($8,400) | ropz ($7,200) | Perfecto ($6,600)
FaZe (World rank: #4) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #23) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-350) | Evil Geniuses (+270)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (-110) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-115)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-175)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- FaZe - Rating at event: broky 1.22 | Twistzz 1.14 | olofmeister 1.10 | karrigan 0.89 | rain 0.87
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.14 | broky 1.12 | rain 1.02 | olofmeister 0.95 | karrigan 0.90
- Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: Brehze 1.05 | oBo 0.76 | MICHU 0.73 | daps 0.71 | CeRq 0.71
- Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: oBo 1.03 | MICHU 0.99 | Brehze 0.97| CeRq 0.95 | daps 0.71
H2H Data:
These teams faced each other in July at the IEM Cologne Play-in tournament and FaZe won 16-12 in a best-of-one on Mirage. Daps was not filling in for stanislaw at the time, but stanislaw finished with 9 kills and a 0.59 Rating, so daps would not need to do much to replace that impact. MICHU finished at the top with 28 kills and a 1.46 Rating in a loss, while broky led his team with 24 kills and a 1.32 Rating in a win.
Prediction/Narrative:
FaZe wins 2-1. All signs point to FaZe being the much better team at the moment, but this match-up seemed pretty even when these teams last played each other, and I could see EG possible taking a map here. Evil Geniuses are not coming into this event expecting to win considering their coach is playing with them, but they are bootcamped together in Poland and have been practicing for this event, and I expect them to go down swinging. We have seen FaZe drop maps, and sometimes even drop entire series, in spots like these where they play down to their competition. FaZe will be looking to continue their good form that they showed at IEM Cologne, but I am not fully convinced that they are a dominant top five team in the world quite yet. Neither of these teams had success on their map pick on Friday, so the map pool could go a few different ways here. Either way, Evil Geniuses are certainly capable of winning a map, but FaZe should win this series one way or another.
Favorite Draftkings Play: broky ($8,600)
Broky would have been the star of the show when these teams last faced each other, but MICHU stole that title away from him with an insane T side where he had 18 kills, 98.8 ADR and a 1.80 Rating. Broky is typically very consistent in match-ups where FaZe is favored, and I think he is absolutely worth paying $8,600 for against Evil Geniuses on this slate. Him and Twistzz should both be smash plays, but broky is cheaper and tends to have a higher floor as an AWPer. He also could have little resistance in terms of an AWPing presence on the opposing side considering CeRq continues to disappoint in 2021. Broky is one of my favorite plays on the slate with Twistzz not far behind, but nobody else jumps out to me all that much, besides maybe karrigan since there appears to be thin value on this slate.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Twistzz ($9,200) | karrigan ($5,800) | olofmeister ($6,800) | rain ($7,600) | oBo ($7,000)