**Shorter playbook for Thursday due to time constraints, especially with the Draftkings pricing getting posted a bit late. Plus, this is now the fourth day in a row of watching the same teams play so there is less for me to say. Also, I will not have a playbook for Friday’s slate, but I will have an in-depth breakdown of the start of Group B on Saturday!

 

Spirit (World rank: #12) vs. Bad News Bears (World rank: #55) - 7:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Spirit (-1175) | Bad News Bears (+730) 

Map Handicap: Spirit -1.5 (-260) | Bad News Bears +1.5 (+205)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+245) | Under 2.5 (-310)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
  • Spirit - Rating at event: mir 1.06 | degster 1.02 | magixx 0.92 | sdy 0.78 | chopper 0.71
  • Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.19 | degster 1.13 | magixx 1.03 | sdy 1.02 | chopper 0.91
  • Bad News Bears - Rating at event: junior 0.77 | Swisher 0.76 | Spongey 0.74 | Jonji 0.71 | Shakezullah 0.63
  • Bad News Bears - Rating past three months: Swisher 1.09 | Spongey 1.02 | Jonji 0.99 | junior 0.97 | Shakezullah 0.96

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction/Narrative:

Spirit wins 2-0. Bad News Bears probably originally thought their best chance to win a map would be against ENCE, but these are the two lowest rated teams in the group through the first three days so BNB will be confident in that sense. Spirit is the only team in the group that is not playing together at boot camp, which makes you question how serious they are even taking this event. Bad News Bears have clear motivation to win as they fight for an organization, but Spirit are still the much better team and I imagine that they want to get their first win pretty badly. Neither team has any realistic chance of qualifying for playoffs, which would be a reason to lean towards the underdog, but the difference in talent between these teams is huge, and Spirit can look like the best team in the world in match-ups where they know they have an edge. This should be a speedrun for Spirit, and stacking them for DFS makes a lot of sense.

Favorite Draftkings Play: mir ($10,200)

Mir’s price on Draftkings continues to increase, but this is a can’t miss spot for him and he has a great chance of being the top scorer of the day with his aggressive playstyle. Mir stays active on the map and is always hungry for kills, so an easy match-up should be his chance to pad his stats. Degster should be a solid play as well, though mir should have a higher ceiling if this is a blowout. This looks like a great spot for magixx as well, but he is now up to $9,000 which takes away some excitement. This would also be a decent spot for taking chopper as a cheap punt play. 

Other Favorites (In order of priority):

degster ($9,400) | magixx ($9,000) | chopper ($6,200) | sdy ($7,400)

 

Heroic (World rank: #8) vs. ENCE (World rank: #24) - 10:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-210) | ENCE (+170) 

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+145) | ENCE +1.5 (-175)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
  • Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.33 | TeSeS 1.30 | refrezh 1.23 | cadiaN 1.13| sjuush 1.11
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: TeSeS 1.13 | cadiaN 1.11 | stavn 1.09 | sjuush 1.06 | refrezh 0.94
  • ENCE - Rating at event: hades 1.22 | dycha 1.21 | doto 1.19 | Spinx 1.09 | Snappi 0.95
  • ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.19 | hades 1.14 | dycha 1.13 | doto 1.10 | Snappi 1.01

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction/Narrative: 

2-1 Heroic. I would have predicted 2-0 for Heroic in this spot prior to the start of the event, but ENCE have earned some respect this week. The Danes have looked excellent at ESL Pro League, but ENCE have shown that their international roster can hang with tier one competition, so I could see them taking a map here. ENCE still have an easy match-up with Bad News Bears to come on Friday, which helps their playoff chances and makes this series less important overall. Heroic will want to secure first place in the group to earn a bye in the playoffs, so this is a crucial series for them despite leading the group. The firepower on Heroic is just too much for most teams to handle when they are playing well. Refrezh can have enormous impact when he is fragging, and his 1.23 Rating at the event is a good sign that Heroic has been on fire. You have five players on Heroic that can all top frag, and that should be enough to get past ENCE, so they should make for a great DFS stack. 

Favorite Draftkings Play: stavn ($7,600) 

Stavn is the highest rated player for Heroic so far at this event, and he is playing will a lot of confidence right now. He is not always the top frag on Heroic, but he usually manages decent stats even in weaker performances, so his floor seems pretty safe at this salary. There are reasons to like every member of Heroic in this match-up though.  

Other Favorites (In order of priority):

cadiaN ($8,400) | TeSeS ($9,200) | refrezh ($5,600) | sjuush ($6,400) | hades ($7,800)

 

Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. Vitality (World rank: #9) - 2:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (+125) | Vitality (-150)

Map Handicap: Astralis +1.5 (-230) | Vitality -1.5 (+185)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
  • Astralis - Rating at event: dupreeh 1.27 | Lucky 1.14 | Magisk 1.08 | Bubzkji 1.00 | gla1ve 0.91
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: dupreeh 1.09 | Magisk 1.07 | Lucky 1.02 | Bubzkji 0.97 | gla1ve 0.96
  • Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.35 | apEX 1.12 | misutaaa 1.10 | shox 0.95 | Kyojin 0.91
  • Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.28 | misutaaa 1.13 | shox 1.02 | apEX 1.01 | Kyojin 0.97

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. Both lineups look much different from when the teams faced earlier in the year at the BLAST Premier Global Final, which Astralis did win 2-1 (16-14 Dust2 / 10-16 Overpass / 16-5 Inferno). 

Prediction/Narrative:

Vitality wins 2-1. Both teams have a 1.08 Rating through the first three days of the event, but Vitality have probably been more impressive considering they had to face Heroic already and they also swept ENCE while Astralis lost 2-0 to them. Still, I think that Astralis match up well against Vitality and that this could be an extremely competitive series as these teams fight for a spot in the playoffs. I am very tempted to take some shots on Astralis for DFS based on pricing, and I definitely think that one or two pieces from Astralis could be viable plays. I also think that Astralis could get somewhat overlooked as an underdog in this spot, and that Vitality’s map pool is not solid enough at this point to consider them a guarantee here. 

Favorite Draftkings Play: shox ($6,800)

Shox has struggled this year and at this event, but his experience always seems to come into play against teams like Astralis. He also seems to be doing a fair bit more of the AWPing as of late, which can give him some extra upside at this stage of his career. He is certainly a risky play, but I think this is one of the best possible spots to target him given the match-up and salary. ZywOo would be my favorite pairing if you have the salary to afford him, and I do think this could be a competitive series so I do not mind getting to some of the value on Astralis either, like Lucky, magisk, or gla1ve. who have both gone way down in price. ApEX continues to see his salary increase, so I have less interest now, but he has been key for Vitality so far with a 1.12 Rating through the first three days. I think exposure to both sides could be the move here, and gla1ve could be the key piece on Astralis at only $4,600, offering much needed salary relief.

Other Favorites (In order of priority): 

ZywOo ($9,800) | gla1ve ($4,600) | Lucky ($6,400) | misutaaa ($8,800) | magisk ($7,200)  | apEX ($8,000) 

 

 

**Favorite Stacks: Spirit, Heroic, Vitality

**Strongest Plays: mir, ZywOo, cadiaN, degster, TeSeS, misutaaa, magixx

**Top Value Options: stavn, shox, gla1ve, chopper, Lucky, refrezh, magisk

*Lineup construction seems difficult on this slate, so I like putting a top value option at captain, such as stavn, shox or chopper. Gla1ve also opens up a lot at $4,600, so he makes sense as a GPP punt, and could even be paired with shox or ZywOo as a risky gamestack that could have massive upside.