Astralis (World rank: #4) vs. Bad News Bears (World rank: #55) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-1650) | Bad News Bears (+935)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (-310) | Bad News Bears +1.5 (+245)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+280) | Under 2.5 (-365)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Astralis - Rating at event: Magisk 1.14 | dupreeh 1.13 | Lucky 1.04 | Bubzkji 0.95 | gla1ve 0.84
- Astralis - Rating past three months: Magisk 1.08 | dupreeh 1.06 | Lucky 1.00 | Bubzkji 0.96 | gla1ve 0.96
- Bad News Bears - Rating at event: jonji 0.77 | Swisher 0.77 | junior 0.69 | Spongey 0.62 | Shakezullah 0.61
- Bad News Bears - Rating past three months: Swisher 1.11 | Spongey 1.02 | Jonji 0.99 | junior 0.97 | Shakezullah 0.97
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Astralis removes Mirage
Bad News Bears removes Vertigo
Astralis picks Nuke
Bad News Bears picks Overpass
Astralis removes Ancient
Bad News Bears removes Dust2
Inferno is left over
Astralis - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 71.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): Magisk +14 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | dupreeh +21 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Lucky (4 maps) +21 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 64.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): dupreeh +15 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 69.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): Magisk +17 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Bubzkji +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | dupreeh +3 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Nuke past three months (9 maps): 4-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (9 maps): Spongey +22 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Swisher +15 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Overpass past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 68.8% pistol round win percent, 79.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (8 maps): Swisher +20 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | jonji -12 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Shakezullah +7 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Spongey +7 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | junior (6 maps) +8 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Inferno past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 22.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (8 maps): Jonji -11 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Swisher +3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
2-0 Astralis. Bad News Bears have gotten rolled in both of their match-ups so far, and that trend should continue here. Eventually I do think that BNB will win a map during group play, and that Swisher will end up as a solid DFS play, but not in this spot. Astralis should pick Nuke, while Bad News Bears may go for Overpass or Inferno. BNB will just be hoping to win a single map, and the best way to do that would be making Astralis play on a map that they have not played with Lucky in the lineup yet. Astralis is an obvious stack on this slate regardless of the maps.
Favorite Draftkings Play: dupreeh ($9,400)
I still believe that dupreeh will end up as the highest rated player in this new lineup now that he is back to rifling. Magisk is still the most expensive Astralis member on Draftkings, which makes me like dupreeh even more. Their whole team should crush here, but dupreeh would be my favorite pick as a safe option that could top frag. Lucky looks solid, but his salary went up +$2,800 from yesterday so he is a lot less exciting on this slate. Bubzkji is the cheapest his team, which makes him a risk that seems worth taking in an easy match-up. Magisk and gla1ve look fine but neither one stands out to me here.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Bubzkji ($6,400) | Lucky ($8,800) | gla1ve ($7,400) | magisk ($10,200)
Spirit (World rank: #12) vs. ENCE (World rank: #24) - 10:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Spirit (-130) | ENCE (+105)
Map Handicap: Spirit -1.5 (+225) | ENCE +1.5 (-280)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Spirit - Rating at event: degster 1.13 | mir 1.06 | magixx 0.94 | sdy 0.78 | chopper 0.73
- Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.19 | degster 1.14 | magixx 1.03 | sdy 1.03 | chopper 0.92
- ENCE - Rating at event: hades 1.22 | dycha 1.13 | doto 1.03 | Spinx 0.97 | Snappi 0.93
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.18 | hades 1.14 | dycha 1.13 | doto 1.09 | Snappi 1.01
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Spirit removes Vertigo
ENCE removes Dust2
Spirit picks Overpass
ENCE picks Nuke
Spirit removes Ancient
ENCE removes Inferno
Mirage is left over
Spirit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (11 maps): 7-4 W/L record, 40.9% pistol round win percent, 74.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (11 maps): degster +54 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | mir +24 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 35.7% pistol round win percent, 68.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): degster +47 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | mir +12 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | sdy +1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 71.4% pistol round win percent, 73.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (5 maps): degster +42 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | magixx -2 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | sdy +17 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | mir +4 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Overpass past three months (9 maps): 4-5 W/L record, 27.8% pistol round win percent, 69.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (9 maps): Spinx +28 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | dycha +13 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | hades +7 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Nuke past three months (12 maps): 9-3 W/L record, 70.8% pistol round win percent, 77.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (12 maps): hades +55 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Spinx +57 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | dycha +19 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | doto +19 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 82.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): dycha +18 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | Spinx +32 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | doto +6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | hades +20 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Spirit win 2-1. Spirit have lost their first two series and will be focused on getting their first win on the board. However, we cannot completely write off this ENCE lineup that does look legit and did just sweep Astralis. I think that Spirit are the better team, and they pretty much need this win to stay in the running for playoffs, so they should figure things out here. Still, I have ENCE winning a map, and this could be a close series. Spirit would be my focus for DFS, especially since ENCE have not had overwhelming fantasy production overall in the past, even in wins.
Favorite Draftkings Play: degster ($8,400)
Degster continues to show up on every single map, even when his team might be struggling. $8,400 is still a very reasonable salary for him given the upside that he has shown. The projected map pool looks strong for him, and this is a match-up that he could definitely dominate. He is much cheaper than mir, which makes him a more appealing option, but this looks like a good spot for both of them. Magixx has also shown flashes of brilliance, though he is yet to put together a consistent performance, so degster certainly feels worth paying the extra $1,000 salary for if choosing between the two. Stacking Spirit makes the most sense to me, but a player or two on ENCE, like hades or Spinx, might also perform well if this is a competitive series. Sdy has not been in the best form as of late but could bounce back here, while chopper remains a punt play on most slates.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
magixx ($7,400) | mir ($9,800) | sdy ($6,600) | hades ($7,200)
Heroic (World rank: #8) vs. Vitality (World rank: #9) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-125) | Vitality (+105)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+180) | Vitality +1.5 (-225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Heroic - Rating at event: TeSeS 1.54 | stavn 1.51 | refrezh 1.31 | cadiaN 1.20 | sjuush 1.07
- Heroic - Rating past three months: TeSeS 1.14 | cadiaN 1.11 | stavn 1.08 | sjuush 1.05 | refrezh 0.93
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.43 | misutaaa 1.25 | apEX 1.19 | shox 1.03 | Kyojin 1.02
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.28 | misutaaa 1.15 | shox 1.03 | apEX 1.01 | Kyojin 0.99
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other at Flashpoint 3 in May 2021, and Heroic won the series 2-0 (16-11 Nuke / 16-9 Overpass). TeSeS was the top frag with 51 kills and a 1.62 Rating across two maps, and all five members of Heroic had a positive K/D ratio, though this series took place during Kyojin’s first month on Vitality.
Map Projections:
Heroic removes Dust2
Vitality removes Ancient
Heroic picks Nuke
Vitality picks Overpass
Heroic removes Inferno
Vitality removes Mirage
Vertigo is left over
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (11 maps): 9-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (11 maps): cadiaN +57 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | TeSeS +54 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | sjuush +30 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | stavn +8 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): TeSeS +18 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | stavn +9 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | cadiaN +18 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | sjuush -2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | refrezh +6 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Vertigo past six months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 85.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate (Heroic have not played Vertigo in the past three months
Heroic - Notable performers on Vertigo past six months (7 maps): sjuush +37 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | cadiaN +29 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | stavn +27 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | TeSeS +14 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | refrezh +10 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 69.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +9 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | misutaaa +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Overpass past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 78.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (8 maps): ZywOo +44 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | misutaaa +28 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Kyojin +1 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | shox +2 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 76.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +45 K/D Diff, 1.52 Rating | misutaaa +21 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Kyojin +18 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | shox +13 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | apEX +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
2-1 Vitality. Both of these teams are playing well right now, so it is tough to pick against either one. Heroic won this match-up last time, but that was Kyojin’s first month with the team and Vitality have certainly improved, while Heroic might have looked slightly worse since then, especially considering they lost their coach in the meantime. You could make arguments for either side, and this will be a major test to see where both team stands, but my gut tells me that Vitality will be solid in the crucial late rounds on these maps. Dust2 and Ancient should get banned, while Nuke and Overpass make the most sense as map picks with Vertigo as the decider. We have not seen Heroic play Vertigo since May 12th, but they dominated that map in the past, and it has been a strong map for Vitality as well, so it could be a tight map if it is played. Vitality struggled on T side Overpass against Bad News Bears so they may look to switch things up their map pick, but these maps seem to be the most likely, and I would give the slight edge to Vitality all things considered. ZywOo is a lock for me once again, but a stack on either side could be risky given the difficult match-up.
Favorite Draftkings Play: ZywOo ($8,600)
ZywOo is priced down in a tough match-up that he struggled in last time, but I think that we see a much stronger showing from Vitality on Wednesday. He is still the most talented player on the entire slate, and a competitive series could lead to monster results if he steps up and carries his team to victory. There is some risk with Heroic playing solid right now, but ZywOo is safe on most slates, and his pricing makes him very appealing in this spot. Nobody else on Vitality feels too safe here outside of maybe misutaaa. I have been heavy on apEX for the first two days of the event, but I think that he is much riskier against Heroic, so I do not like him as much here. Kyojin and shox are both cheap enough for me to take some shots on them, but neither one is necessarily a lock even if Vitality do win. On Heroic, all five members look like reasonable plays at their salaries, but I do think that Vitality looks good enough to beat them, so the Danes are not my priority. CadiaN would probably be my favorite at $7,800, but stavn and TeSeS could be considered too since they have been crushing this event. We saw a ceiling performance from refrezh on Tuesday, so he may be worth a look at only $5,400, while sjuush is cheap as well at $6,200, but neither one is a priority for me against Vitality.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
misutaaa ($7,600) | apEX ($6,000) | shox ($6,800) | Kyojin ($5,000) | cadiaN ($7,800)