ENCE (World rank: #10) vs. Movistar Riders (World rank: #18) - 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-240) | Movistar Riders (+190)
Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (+135) | Movistar Riders +1.5 (-165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Quarter-Finals of the ESL Pro League Season 15 Playoffs
- ENCE - Rating at event: Spinx 1.27 | hades 1.15 | Maden 1.08 | dycha 1.06 | Snappi 0.99
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.17 | hades 1.15 | dycha 1.11 | Maden 0.99 | Snappi 0.97
- Movistar Riders - Rating at event: SunPayus 1.17 | alex 1.14 | mopoz 1.07 | dav1g 1.03 | DeathZz 1.02
- Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.16 | alex 1.09 | mopoz 1.00 | DeathZz 0.98 | dav1g 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Movistar Riders removes Dust2
ENCE removes Inferno
Movistar Riders picks Vertigo
ENCE picks Mirage
Movistar Riders removes Overpass
ENCE removes Ancient
Nuke is left over
Prediction/Narrative: ENCE wins 2-0.
ENCE are a scary team right now. Their map pool is deep with a win rate of at least 50% on Ancient, Overpass, Mirage, Nuke and Dust2 in 2022. Their Nuke is world-class with a 10-1 W/L record, 71.8% CT round win rate, 79.2% 5v4 conversion rate and 32.8% 4v5 conversion rate during that time. ENCE made quick work of Fnatic in the first round of the playoffs, and they are currently the fourth highest-rated team at ESL Pro League Season 15 with a 1.11 Team Rating across 15 maps played. Spinx has been playing aggressive and his form has been great as he is currently the fifth highest-rated player at the event. On the other hand, Movistar Riders are red hot. They went undefeated during the group stage in a group that included Players (Gambit), Liquid, BIG, and GODSENT, and they have now won eight series in a row. It is easy to see why Movistar Riders might be a possible upset pick based on their recent form, but I think this is a brutal match-up for them in terms of the maps. Movistar’s most played map in 2022 is Nuke, but ENCE is one of the best Nuke teams in the world right now. Movistar Riders have their highest win rate on Inferno, but ENCE will ban that map right off the bat. Thus, Movistar Riders will need to find another map to pick like Vertigo, which used to be a good map for them and would be a punish pick against ENCE, or maybe they consider Ancient, which has been a decent map for the Spaniards. Either way, ENCE have been the better team at the event, and the map pool should be significantly in their favor, so I see this series as a 2-0 sweep for ENCE. The Draftkings pricing for Movistar Riders does seem somewhat reasonable, but I expect them to struggle here, so I would generally look for value elsewhere.
- On Vertigo, Spinx leads ENCE with a 1.11 Rating and 1.11 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
- On Mirage, dycha leads ENCE with a 1.24 Rating, while hades leads with a 1.25 K/D ratio across 14 maps played in 2022.
- On Nuke, hades leads ENCE with a 1.26 Rating and 1.48 K/D ratio across 11 maps played in 2022.
- Spinx is currently the fifth-highest rated player at the event with a 1.27 Rating across 15 maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
dycha ($7,600) | Spinx ($9,400) | hades ($8,600) | Maden ($6,800) | Snappi ($6,000) | SunPayus ($7,400)
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #7) vs. Liquid (World rank: #21) - 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Ninjas in Pyjamas (-135) | Liquid (+110)
Map Handicap: Ninjas in Pyjamas -1.5 (+210) | Liquid +1.5 (-260)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Quarter-Finals of the ESL Pro League Season 15 Playoffs
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: REZ 1.27 | Plopski 1.13 | hampus 1.09 | phzy 1.05 | es3tag 1.02
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: REZ 1.12 | hampus 1.05 | Plopski 1.02 | phzy 1.00 | es3tag 0.96
- Liquid - Rating at event: oSee 1.25 | EliGE 1.17 | NAF 1.11 | shox 0.97 | nitr0 0.97
- Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.17 | oSee 1.13 | NAF 1.13 | shox 0.96 | nitr0 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Liquid removes Nuke
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Dust2
Liquid picks Mirage
Ninjas in Pyjamas picks Overpass
Liquid removes Inferno
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Vertigo
Ancient is left over
Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 2-1.
Ninjas in Pyjamas are currently the third highest-rated team at ESL Pro League Season 15 with a 1.11 Team Rating across 12 maps played. REZ looks to be in great form as the sixth highest-rated player at the event with a 1.27 Rating during that time. NiP have recorded a win on every map in the pool at this event, aside from their permaban, Dust2. NiP recently made a huge move by acquiring Brollan, and it appears that phzy’s time with the main roster will be coming to an end after this event, since their roster for ESL Pro League is already locked. This could be looked at as a possible distraction, but in the past, we have often seen teams thrive when they have a roster change waiting in the wings, so I’m not necessarily worried about NiP in that sense. I predicted that Liquid would pull the upset against Heroic on Wednesday, and they managed to do so with all five of their players finding good impact. I have been impressed with Liquid’s form as of late, but I still don’t think that they should be a near pick ‘em against NiP. Liquid’s map pool does not seem to match up well here as NiP look like the better team on Ancient, Overpass, Vertigo, and Nuke, plus Inferno used to be a strong map for NiP. Liquid’s roster looks much different from when these teams last faced in December 2021, but it should still be noted that NiP dominated that series in a 2-0 fashion and REZ had 56 kills with only 26 deaths across two maps played. NiP has been the better team at this event, and I feel comfortable backing them as a slight favorite. Draftkings is offering some cheap prices on the Liquid side, but I’m expecting NiP to win and possibly even sweep, so I would only really consider using a Liquid player as a one-off at most.
- On Mirage, es3tag & REZ lead NiP with a 1.13 Rating, while REZ leads with a 1.18 K/D ratio across six maps played in 2022.
- On Overpass, REZ leads NiP with a 1.15 Rating and 1.12 K/D ratio across nine maps played in 2022.
- On Ancient, REZ leads NiP with a 1.11 Rating and 1.16 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
- REZ is currently the sixth highest-rated player at the event with a 1.27 Rating across 12 maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
REZ ($9,000) | es3tag ($5,400) | hampus ($8,000) | phzy ($6,400) | NAF ($6,200) | Plopski ($7,200) | oSee ($7,000) | EliGE ($7,800)