Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. Liquid (World rank: #21) - 1:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-245) | Liquid (+195)

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+130) | Liquid +1.5 (-160)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Round of 12 of the ESL Pro League Season 15 Playoffs
  • Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.24 | TeSeS 1.13 | sjuush 1.12 | refrezh 1.10 | cadiaN 0.99
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.26 | sjuush  1.11 | TeSeS 1.10 | cadiaN 1.06 | refrezh 1.03
  • Liquid - Rating at event: oSee 1.26 | EliGE 1.15 | NAF 1.08 | shox 0.95 | nitr0 0.95
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.16 | oSee 1.12 | NAF 1.12 | shox 0.95 | nitr0 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in November 2021 at BLAST Premier Fall Final, though only EliGE & NAF remain from that previous iteration of Liquid’s lineup. The teams also met last season at ESL Pro League Season 14 when refrezh had his infamous 1v5 on Inferno to send the map to overtime.

Map Projections:

Liquid removes Nuke

Heroic removes Dust2

Liquid picks Mirage

Heroic picks Overpass

Liquid removes Vertigo

Heroic removes Ancient

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-1.

It’s impossible for me to look at this match-up and not think about the unbelievable refrezh 1v5 that eliminated Liquid from ESL Pro League Season 14 playoffs. Regardless of that meltdown from Liquid, these teams have played each other close historically, and you could argue that Liquid have greatly improved their lineup since they last played Heroic. Liquid have won 11 of their last 16 maps played and every member of their lineup has at least a 1.03 Rating during that time, so their new roster has certainly been coming into form in recent weeks. Liquid have established Mirage as one of their strongest maps having won four of their last five with a 79.7% 5v4 conversion rate, 67.6% CT round win rate and a 90% pistol win rate. In the past month, they have a win rate of at least 50% on Ancient, Vertigo, Dust2, Mirage and Inferno, and I do think they are ready to go toe-to-toe with the team that won ESL Pro League just two seasons ago, Heroic. The Danes have done very well at ESL Pro League in the past, and their loss against NAVI on Sunday was their first loss across 15 series played in the group stage of the event going back to Season 13. Heroic are currently the third highest-rated team at the event with a 1.11 Team Rating across 11 maps played, compared to a 1.08 Team Rating for Liquid during that time, so both teams have been good, but Heroic has been slightly better. Heroic’s most played map in 2022 has been Overpass and I expect them to pick it and likely win it in this spot, though they would give Liquid the luxury of starting CT on one of the more CT-sided maps in the game, plus the rest of the map pool is a bit more up for grabs. I'd favor Liquid on Mirage, and anything could happen on Inferno if it is the decider map. Heroic is the stronger team at the moment, but I think this series could go either way, so I am happy to ride with Liquid at these odds/Draftkings pricing.

  • On Mirage, NAF leads Liquid with a 1.13 Rating and 1.14 K/D ratio across eight maps played in 2022.
  • On Overpass, oSee leads Liquid with a 1.12 Rating and 1.29 K/D ratio across one map played in 2022.
  • On Inferno, NAF leads Liquid with a 1.23 Rating, while oSee leads with a 1.20 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • oSee is currently the seventh highest-rated player at the event with a 1.26 Rating across 11 maps played. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

NAF ($9,400) | oSee ($8,400) | stavn ($12,000) | EliGE ($10,400) | refrezh ($7,600) | shox ($7,400) | cadiaN ($8,600) | nitr0 ($6,400) | TeSeS ($9,600) | sjuush ($10,800)