ENCE (World rank: #10) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #16) - 9:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-225) | Fnatic (+180)

Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (+135) | Fnatic +1.5 (-165)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Round of 12 of the ESL Pro League Season 15 Playoffs
  • ENCE - Rating at event: Spinx 1.21 | hades 1.14 | Maden 1.07 | dycha 1.02 | Snappi 0.97
  • ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.15 | hades 1.15 | dycha 1.10 | Maden 0.98 | Snappi 0.96
  • Fnatic - Rating at event: mezii 1.21 | poizon 1.17 | ALEX 0.99 | Peppzor 0.95 | KRIMZ N/A
  • Fnatic - Rating past three months: mezii 1.11 | poizon 1.09 | KRIMZ 1.06 | Peppzor 1.03 | ALEX 0.98

H2H Data:

  • These rosters last faced online at a BLAST Premier qualifier on March 26th. ENCE won 16-12 in a best-of-one on Mirage and dycha led the server with 25 kills and a 1.44 Rating. 

Map Projections:

Fnatic removes Ancient

ENCE removes Inferno

Fnatic picks Overpass

ENCE picks Nuke

Fnatic removes Vertigo

ENCE removes Dust2

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: ENCE wins 2-0.

These teams played each other in a best-of-one less than two weeks ago and ENCE was the clear better team. Given the nature of a best-of-one, neither team was playing on their preferred map choice, so the win on Mirage speaks to the depth of ENCE’s strong map pool. Nobody really expected Fnatic to qualify for the playoffs over G2 & MOUZ given their recent roster changes, but Fnatic played well despite the moving parts in their lineup. KRIMZ was out during the group stage due to COVID, but he is back for playoffs. Still, Fnatic are playing with poizon on trial and Peppzor is standing in from their academy roster, so I don’t feel very confident in this team at the moment. They have a 9-4 W/L record across 13 maps played, which is solid, but a large amount of their success has come on Inferno, which will likely be banned away by ENCE. As for ENCE, they are another team that people were sleeping on in the group stage with Vitality & Outsiders (Virtus.pro) expected to have qualified ahead of them. ENCE are currently the seventh highest-rated team at this event with a 1.08 Rating across 13 maps played, and they have a 31-18 W/L record across 49 maps played in 2022. ENCE are 9-1 this year on Nuke with a dominant win over NAVI and a close loss against FaZe, and they should have that map locked up if it is played. If Fnatic decide to ban Nuke to start, then they leave themselves vulnerable to their own weakest maps, like Ancient or Vertigo. ENCE have a strong map pool, and the decider could end up as their most played map, Mirage, where they beat Fnatic just a short time ago. I expect ENCE to sweep this series, but if they don’t, then they should have the win secured in three maps. 

  • On Overpass, hades leads ENCE with a 1.20 Rating and 1.25 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
  • On Nuke, hades leads ENCE with a 1.30 Rating and 1.54 K/D ratio across 10 maps played in 2022.
  • On Mirage, dycha leads ENCE with a 1.24 Rating, while hades leads with a 1.25 K/D ratio across 14 maps played in 2022. 
  • Dycha was the top performer when these teams last met with 25 kills and a 1.44 Rating in a 16-12 win on Mirage.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

hades ($8,400) | dycha ($7,200) | Spinx ($9,400) | Maden ($6,400) | Snappi ($5,600) | poizon ($7,000) | mezii ($7,600)

 

FaZe (World rank: #2) vs. Players (World rank: #3) - 1:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-125) | Players (+105)

Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (+220) | Players +1.5 (-275)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Round of 12 of the ESL Pro League Season 15 Playoffs
  • FaZe - Rating at event: broky 1.18 | Twistzz 1.15 | ropz 1.11 | rain 1.04 | karrigan 0.89
  • FaZe - Rating past three months: broky 1.22 | ropz 1.15 | Twistzz 1.12 | rain 1.06 | karrigan 0.89
  • Players - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.37 | HObbit 1.25 | Ax1Le 1.18 | interz 1.07 | nafany 0.94
  • Players - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.35 | Ax1Le 1.24 | HObbit 1.16 | interz 1.04 | nafany 0.94

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced each other in February 2022 at IEM Katowice, but jks was standing in for rain at that time. FaZe won that match-up 2-0 (16-5 Dust2 / 16-11 Inferno) and broky led the way with 39 kills and a 1.39 Rating. 

Map Projections:

Players removes Nuke

FaZe removes Vertigo

Players picks Overpass

FaZe picks Inferno

Players removes Dust2

FaZe removes Ancient

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Players win 2-1.

The playoffs of a LAN event often take place in front of a crowd, but that is not the case with ESL Pro League Season 15. Instead, the teams will continue to face off in a studio-LAN environment, which seemingly benefits Players greatly. Players dominated the online era of Counter-Strike during the pandemic, but they hit bumps in the road once LAN events came around. On the other hand, FaZe have a history of overperforming on LAN, like at IEM Katowice 2022, where they recently won as an underdog. Thus, the fact that the playoffs are in a studio-LAN environment gives me confidence that Players can give their best performance without the pressure of a live audience, so I am happy to back them as an underdog. Players are currently the second highest-rated team at this event with a 1.16 Rating across 12 maps played, only behind the number one team in the world, NAVI. Their individuals are also in excellent form with sh1ro as the second highest-rated player at the event, and HObbit not far behind as the eighth highest-rated player so far. Meanwhile, it took a bit more work from FaZe to qualify for their playoff spot after opening the event 0-2 with losses to ENCE and Outsiders. Players' map pool is very strong in 2022 with a win rate of at least 50% on every map besides their permaban, Nuke. As for FaZe, their most played map is Inferno, where they have a 3-4 W/L record with a mere 62.6% 5v4 conversion rate in 2022. Thus, I’m having trouble figuring out why FaZe is favored here. Sure, FaZe won when these teams last met, but Players are a methodical team that rely heavily on preparation, and FaZe were playing with a stand-in, which is difficult to prepare for. Players should be ready for their opponents now that FaZe are at full strength. Players have been the better team at this event, and I think they will be the better team on the server on Tuesday, though this series could maybe stay close given FaZe’s firepower. 

  • On Overpass, Ax1Le leads Players with a 1.19 Rating, while sh1ro leads with a 1.33 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • On Inferno, sh1ro leads Players with a 1.27 Rating and 1.39 K/D ratio across six maps played in 2022.
  • On Mirage, sh1ro leads Players with a 1.34 Rating and 1.91 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • Broky was the top performer when these teams last met with 39 kills and a 1.39 Rating across two maps.
  • Sh1ro is the second highest-rated player at the event (1.37 Rating), while HObbit is the eighth highest-rated (1.25 Rating) across 12 maps played. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

sh1ro ($8,600) | HObbit ($6,800) | Ax1Le ($7,800) | broky ($9,000) | nafany ($5,200) | Twistzz ($6,600) | interz ($6,000) | ropz ($8,000)

 

*Top Stacks: ENCE, Players

*Favorite captain options: hades, sh1ro, Spinx, Ax1Le, broky

*Favorite value plays: dycha, HObbit, Maden, nafany, Snappi, Twistzz, interz