EC Kyiv (World rank: #62) vs. ALTERNATE aTTaX (World rank: #115) - 4:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: EC Kyiv (-285) | ALTERNATE aTTaX (+225)

Round Handicap: EC Kyiv -4.5 (+105) | ALTERNATE aTTaX +4.5 (-130)

  • This is an online best-of-one for the Stage One Group C Semi-Final of Pinnacle Cup IV
  • EC Kyiv - Rating at event: N/A
  • EC Kyiv - Rating past three months: s4 1.15 | uQlutzavr  1.13 | byr9 1.12 | Smash 1.01 | amster 0.95
  • ALTERNATE aTTaX - Rating at event: N/A
  • ALTERNATE aTTaX - Rating past three months: awzek 1.14 | mave 1.05 | skyye 1.02 | FreeZe  0.93 | xenn 0.91

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.   

Prediction/Narrative: EC Kyiv wins 16-10.

EC Kyiv are the biggest favorite on this slate, and they are the third highest-ranked team at the event. EC Kyiv have been in excellent form recently with a 16-7 W/L record across 23 maps played in the past three months. They have wins against Copenhagen Flames, SKADE, Nemiga, and AGO during that time. EC Kyiv also have a strong map pool with at least a 50% win rate on every map in the pool in the past three months besides their permaban,  Nuke. As for ATN Attax, their lineup has been rather unimpressive with a 14-23 W/L record across 37 maps played. ATN Attax have a losing record on every map besides Ancient & Overpass, so they could be put in a tough spot in this best-of-one format. Overall, all signs point to a fairly easy win for EC Kyiv. 

Favorite DFS Plays (In order of priority):

s4 ($10,000) | uQlutzavr ($9,000) | Smash ($7,000) |  amster ($6,200) | byr9 ($8,000) | awzek ($7,200)

 

HAVU (World rank: #96) vs. MASONIC (World rank: #50) - 5:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: HAVU (-175) | MASONIC (+140)

Round Handicap: HAVU -2.5 (-115) | MASONIC +2.5 (-105)

  • This is an online best-of-one for the Stage One Group C Semi-Final of Pinnacle Cup IV
  • HAVU - Rating at event: N/A
  • HAVU - Rating past three months: ottoNd 1.18 | xseveN  1.12 | Aerial 1.11 | Sm1llee 1.00 | sLowi 0.91
  • MASONIC - Rating at event: N/A
  • MASONIC - Rating past three months: kraghen 1.09 | notaN 1.08 | Queenix 1.08 | j3nsyy  1.06 | Cabbi 1.05

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.   

Prediction/Narrative: MASONIC wins 16-12.

MASONIC are the fourth highest-ranked team at this event, and their lineup continues to produce strong results. They have a 30-17 W/L record across 47 maps played, and they have at least a 50% win rate on every map in the pool besides their permaban, Mirage. On the other side, HAVU have a 15-16 W/L record across 31 maps played with their lineup, though they have played some tougher teams than MASONIC. Still, HAVU have only managed a win rate higher than 33.3% on three maps: Dust2, Overpass, and Mirage. The strength of MASONIC’s map pool could benefit the Danes here, especially since they will likely ban Mirage right away. Either way, I think MASONIC are certainly a live underdog in this best-of-one, and they make sense as a value option on Draftkings given their cheap pricing. 

Favorite DFS Plays (In order of priority):

kraghen ($7,400) | j3nsyy ($5,600) | notaN ($6,800) | Cabbi ($4,400) | Queenix ($6,000) | xseveN ($8,400) | ottoNd ($9,400)

 

iNation (World rank: #158) vs. FTW (World rank: #88) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: iNation N/A |  FTW N/A

Round Handicap: iNation N/A| FTW +2.5  N/A

  • This is an online best-of-one for the Stage One Group D Semi-Final of Pinnacle Cup IV
  • iNation - Rating at event: N/A
  • iNation - Rating past three months: VLDN 1.09 | Dragon  0.95 | SkippeR 0.92 | Dav 0.86 | HOLMES N/A
  • FTW - Rating at event: N/A
  • FTW - Rating past three months: ewjerkz 1.08 | arrozdoce 1.03 | Ag1l 0.96 | story 0.95 | DDias 0.88

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.   

Prediction/Narrative: FTW wins 16-11.

The biggest storyline here is that FTW were originally scheduled to play against 4glory, but iNation replaced them at the last minute. As such, I haven’t seen updated betting odds for this series on any site, including on Pinnacle itself, which still incorrectly lists FTW vs 4glory despite this literally being the Pinnacle Cup. Thus, I’m just shooting from the hip here in terms of the odds at this point. Personally, I think FTW should be a heavy favorite of at least (-200) moneyline given iNation’s current situation. The team’s highest rated player in the past three months, choiv7, is taking a break for health reasons and HOLMES is currently standing in. HOLMES is certainly a decent replacement for a team of this caliber, but he hasn’t played an official match with this team yet, and he hasn’t even played an official match in 2022. Still, if you’ve watched enough tier three Counter-Strike then you probably remember him from ONYX or Marten and know that he can frag. However, it will be extremely difficult to replace choiv7’s impact in this lineup. Combine that with the fact that iNation have a 7-11 W/L record across 18 maps played in the past three months and you can see why I anticipate that the oddsmakers have them as the underdog. As for FTW, they have had some struggles of their own with a 9-14 W/L record across 23 maps played in the past three months, but they have lost to some quality teams such as MOUZ, SINNERS and 00NATION, and they have even beaten SAW, HAVU, and Eternal Fire during that time. Draftkings does have iNation as the more expensive team, but I prefer targeting the value on FTW. 

Favorite DFS Plays (In order of priority):

arrozdoce ($7,000) | ewjerkz ($7,800) | Ag1l ($6,200) | story ($5,200) |  DDias ($4,600) | VLDN ($8,200) 

 

KOVA (World rank: #72) vs. Isurus (World rank: #74) - 11:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: KOVA (-195) | Isurus (+160)

Round Handicap: KOVA -3.5 (+105) | Isurus +3.5 (-125)

  • This is an online best-of-one for the Stage One Group D Semi-Final of Pinnacle Cup IV
  • KOVA - Rating at event: N/A
  • KOVA - Rating past three months: uli 1.09 | Spargo  1.09 | Airax 1.01 | Twixie 0.99 | zks 0.98
  • Isurus - Rating at event: N/A
  • Isurus - Rating past three months: DeStiNy 1.10 | Noktse 1.01 | deco 1.01 | ALLE  1.00 | Gafolo 0.98

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.   

Prediction/Narrative: KOVA wins 16-11.

Isurus have struggled in their own region, so it is difficult to see them winning here against a solid European squad like KOVA. Isurus have a 13-13 W/L record across 26 maps played, but they haven’t played outside of the NA/SA region yet. As for KOVA, their lineup has more experience together having played 127 total maps, and in the past three months they have a 30-23 W/L record across 54 maps played. They have picked up a couple of impressive wins in the month of April with a sweep against Anonymo and a 2-1 win against Hellslayers, and they look to be in good form at the moment. I think KOVA should have this best-of-one locked up on basically any map, and they are certainly my main focus here. However, the pricing on Gafolo at $4,000 is interesting considering his upside with the AWP, and ALLE is also pretty cheap at $5,000.

Favorite DFS Plays (In order of priority):

Spargo ($9,600) |  uli ($8,600) | Airax ($7,800) | Twixie ($6,800) | Gafolo ($4,000) | zks ($5,600) | ALLE ($5,000)

 

*Top Stacks: KOVA, EC Kyiv, FTW, MASONIC
*Favorite Captains: s4, Spargo, ewjerkz, uQlutzavr, uli, kraghen, Airax, byr9
*Favorite Value Options: Smash, arrozdoce, j3nsyy, Twixie, amster, Ag1l, notaN, Cabbi, story, Queenix, DDias, Gafolo