Natus Vincere (World rank: #2) vs. Heroic (World rank: #5) - 7:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-230) | Heroic (+185)

Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (+125) | Heroic +1.5 (-155)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)

  • This is a best-of-three on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Europe RMR A - Swiss Round 3 (teams with a 2-0 record). Winner qualifies for PGL Major Antwerp 2022. 
  • Natus Vincere - Rating at event: s1mple 1.76 | Boombl4  1.23 | b1t 1.14 | Perfecto 1.10 | electronic 0.99
  • Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.36 | b1t 1.13 | electronic 1.06 | Perfecto 1.04 | Boombl4  0.94
  • Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.57 | TeSeS 1.46 | cadiaN 1.26 | sjuush 1.11 | refrezh 1.07
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.26 | TeSeS 1.11 | sjuush 1.09 | cadiaN  1.06 | refrezh 1.02

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced earlier this month at ESL Pro League Season 15 and NAVI won 2-0 (16-7 Overpass / 16-5 Mirage). Electronic  led with 39 kills, while b1t led with a 1.42 Rating across two maps.  

Map Projections:

Heroic removes Dust2

Natus Vincere removes Vertigo 

Heroic picks Inferno

Natus Vincere picks Mirage

Heroic removes Ancient

Natus Vincere removes Overpass

Nuke is left over

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-1.

NAVI dominated Heroic throughout 2020 and 2021, and they started out 2022 with a sweep against the Danes just a few weeks ago. Heroic maybe have a chance to buck the trend here though as they have had two solid wins at this event so far beating forZe and Fnatic. Heroic are currently the highest-rated team at the event with a 1.29 Team Rating, despite those difficult match-ups. Heroic are also getting great form from their riflers as stavn is the third highest-rated player at the event (1.57 Rating) and TeSeS is the fifth highest-rated (1.47 Rating) across two maps. NAVI are not far behind as they are tied as the second highest-rated team with a 1.25 Rating, and s1mple leads the event with a 1.76 Rating across two maps played. I think the Danes are in good enough form to keep things close here, and they have the potential to steal a map like Inferno or Overpass. However, NAVI are the better team and I doubt that their dominance against Heroic comes to an end with a spot in the Major on the line, though this could still be a close series.

  • On Inferno, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.28 Rating and 1.37 K/D ratio across three maps played in the past three months.
  • On Mirage, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.43 Rating and 1.64 K/D ratio across nine maps played in the past three months.
  • On Nuke, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.30 Rating and 1.44 K/D ratio across five maps played in the past three months.
  • Electronic leads NAVI with 26.4% opening duel attempts in the past three months, while stavn & TeSeS lead Heroic at 21.7% each.

Favorite DFS Plays (In order of priority):

s1mple ($9,600) | b1t ($8,800) | Perfecto ($6,800) |  stavn ($7,400) | electronic ($7,800) | TeSeS ($6,800) | Boombl4 ($6,000) | refrezh ($4,600)

 

FaZe (World rank: #1) vs. BIG (World rank: #19) - 11:15 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-395) | BIG (+305)

Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (-110) | BIG +1.5 (-110)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-170)

  • This is a best-of-three on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Europe RMR A - Swiss Round 3 (teams with a 2-0 record). Winner qualifies for PGL Major Antwerp 2022. 
  • FaZe - Rating at event: ropz 1.34 | rain 1.28 | broky 1.26 | Twistzz 1.20 | karrigan 0.85
  • FaZe - Rating past three months: broky 1.20 | ropz  1.17 | Twistzz 1.12 | rain 1.08 | karrigan 0.90
  • BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.57 | Krimbo 1.47 | faveN 1.16 | tabseN 1.05 | tiziaN 0.99
  • BIG - Rating past three months: syrsoN 1.21 | tabseN 1.13 | Krimbo 1.12 | faveN 1.06 | tiziaN 0.96

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last played in February at BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022, prior to BIG replacing k1to with Krimbo. FaZe won that series 2-1 (16-14 Dust2 / 2-16 Overpass / 16-1 Nuke). Broky led the server with 47 kills and a 1.21 Rating across three maps played. 

Map Projections:

BIG removes Inferno

FaZe removes Vertigo

BIG picks Dust2

FaZe picks Mirage

BIG removes Nuke

FaZe removes Ancient

Overpass is left over

Prediction/Narrative: FaZe wins 2-0.

FaZe are the hottest team in the world and they have won nine series in a row. They have also won three in a row on Dust2 against Vitality, NAVI and ENCE, which means that they are certainly capable of stealing BIG’s go-to map away from the Germans. BIG currently have a better Team Rating (1.25) than FaZe (1.19) at this event, but I’d argue that FaZe had the tougher opponents facing Vitality & Eternal Fire versus SAW & Outsiders for BIG. Either way, both teams are playing well at the moment, hence why they are already competing for a spot in the Major at this stage of the tournament. SyrsoN is currently the second highest-rated player at the event with a 1.57 Rating, while Krimbo is in fourth with a 1.47 Rating. Still, FaZe are the best team in the world at the moment and I don’t see why you would want to fade them here, especially since they are capable of sweeping with a win of BIG’s most likely map choice, Dust2. 

  • On Dust2, broky leads FaZe with a 1.20 Rating and 1.34 K/D ratio across seven maps played in the past three months. 
  • On Mirage, broky leads FaZe with a 1.13 Rating and 1.27 K/D ratio across eight maps played in the past three months.
  • On Overpass, ropz leads FaZe with a 1.29 Rating and 1.38 K/D ratio across eight maps played in the past three months. 
  • Rain leads FaZe with 26.4% opening duel attempts in the past three months, while tabseN leads BIG at 24.8%.

Favorite DFS Plays (In order of priority):

broky ($9,400) | ropz ($8,600) | rain ($6,600) | Twistzz ($8,000) | tabseN ($6,400) | syrsoN ($7,200) | karrigan ($5,800) | Krimbo ($5,800) 

 

Dignitas (World rank: #36) vs. GamerLegion (World rank: #29) - 11:15 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Dignitas (-125) | GamerLegion (Even)

Map Handicap: Dignitas -1.5 (+230) | GamerLegion +1.5 (-295)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Europe RMR A - Swiss Round 3 (teams with a 0-2 record). Losing team is eliminated. 
  • Dignitas - Rating at event: f0rest 1.05 | hallzerk  0.93 | Lekr0 0.92 | friberg 0.69 | HEAP 0.68
  • Dignitas - Rating past three months: HEAP 1.04 | hallzerk 1.03 | Lekr0 1.03 | f0rest 1.02 | Friberg  0.91
  • GamerLegion - Rating at event: Zero 1.07 | eraa  0.95 | RuStY 0.85 | isak 0.79 | iM 0.75
  • GamerLegion - Rating past three months: iM 1.15 | eraa 1.06 | isak 0.97 | Zero 0.96 | RuStY 0.94

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in February 2021, but both rosters have changed since then. 

Map Projections:

GamerLegion removes Dust2

Dignitas removes Ancient

GamerLegion picks Mirage

Dignitas picks Nuke

GamerLegion removes Overpass 

Dignitas removes Vertigo

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: GamerLegion wins 2-1.

Neither of these teams have gotten off to a good start of this event, and the losing team will be eliminated. GamerLegion have been making some noise in the tier two scene with their current lineup, and they have a 43-43 W/L record across 86 maps played in the past three months. Dignitas are in a similar boat with a 34-35 W/L record across 69 maps played in the past three months, so this does seem to be a fairly even match-up. Both teams like to ban Dust2, and the map veto will be affected by whichever team decides to ban it away. The map pool seems pretty even as well with GamerLegion having a win rate above 50% on Mirage & Vertigo, while Dignitas have a win rate above 50% on Overpass & Nuke. Experience favors the side of Dignitas, but I think GamerLegion have been trending in a better direction in recent months, and I like riding with them especially on Draftkings where they are cheaply priced. I also think that iM will be the best player on the server, though he has had a quiet start to the event. The odds have this match-up as a near coinflip which makes sense, but I prefer to back GamerLegion, all things considered.

  • On Mirage, iM leads GamerLegion with a 1.22 Rating and 1.20 K/D ratio across 23 maps played in the past three months. 
  • On Nuke, iM leads GamerLegion with a 1.17 Rating and 1.21 K/D ratio across 10 maps played in the past three months.
  • On Inferno, iM leads GamerLegion with a 1.17 Rating and 1.13 K/D ratio across 16 maps played in the past three months.
  • iM leads GamerLegion with 22.2% opening duel attempts in the past three months, while friberg leads Dignitas at 23.1%.

Favorite DFS Plays (In order of priority):

iM ($8,200) | eraa ($7,400) | Zero ($5,600) | hallzerk ($7,000) | isak ($6,600) | f0rest ($6,200) | HEAP ($8,400) | RuStY ($5,000) 

 

*Top Stacks: FaZe, NAVI, GamerLegion
*Favorite Captains: broky, s1mple, iM. ropz, b1t, Twistzz, electronic 
*Favorite Value Options: rain, Perfecto, era, Zero, stavn, hallzerk, isak, tabseN, f0rest