paiN (World rank: #37) vs. Case (World rank: #71) - 8:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: paiN (-215) | Case (+170)

Map Handicap: paiN -1.5 (+145) | Case +1.5 (-175)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Americas RMR - Swiss round 5 (teams with a 2-2 record). Winning team advances to the 6th-8th place decider bracket, losing team is eliminated.
  • paiN - Rating at event: nython 1.18 | hardzao  1.03 | NEKIZ 0.99 | biguzera 0.97 | PKL 0.96
  • paiN - Rating past three months: nython 1.18 | biguzera  1.11 | hardzao 1.10 | NEKIZ 1.09 | PKL 1.02
  • Case - Rating at event: RCF 1.22 | honda 1.21 | steel 1.02 | f4stzin 1.00 | yepz 0.85
  • Case - Rating past three months: RCF 1.21 | honda 1.11 | f4stzin 1.05 | yepz  1.04 | steel 0.98

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Map Projections:

Case removes Nuke

paiN removes Inferno

Case picks Mirage

paiN picks Dust2

Case removes Vertigo

paiN removes Ancient

Overpass is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Case wins 2-1.

Another day, another Brazilian derby where anything can happen. Case surprised me on Wednesday with a convincing sweep against Isurus, which makes them the seventh highest-rated team at this event with a 1.06 Team Rating, ahead of paiN. Case’s lineup has a 17-6 W/L record across 23 maps played, and it is hard to ignore them as an underdog in this spot. They haven’t faced paiN yet, but their record against Brazilian teams is 13-3. PaiN have also been solid with a 32-19 W/L record across 51 maps played with their lineup, but I don’t think they should be heavy favorites here. Nuke is paiN’s most played map and Case will likely ban that to start. Case have at least a 66.7% win rate on Dust2, Inferno, Overpass, Vertigo, Nuke, and Mirage, and I think this series is up for grabs. I’m happy to back Case as an underdog, though this could be a tight series that goes three maps.

  • On Mirage, RCF leads Case with a 1.24 Rating, while f4stzin leads with a 1.35 K/D ratio across four maps played.
  • On Dust2, honda leads Case with a 1.23 Rating and 1.29 K/D ratio across three maps played. 
  • On Overpass, RCF leads Case with a 1.19 Rating and 1.24 K/D ratio across four maps played.
  • F4stzin leads Case with 24.1% opening duel attempts, while biguzera leads paiN with 21.0% opening duel attempts. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

RCF ($8,000) | honda ($6,800) | f4stzin ($6,200) | steel ($4,800) | biguzera ($8,400) | nython ($9,000) 

 

Evil Geniuses (World rank: #44) vs. Party Astronauts (World rank: #38) - 12:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Evil Geniuses (-255) | Party Astronauts (+205)

Map Handicap: Evil Geniuses -1.5 (+125) | Party Astronauts +1.5 (-155)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Americas RMR - Swiss round 5 (teams with a 2-2 record). Winning team advances to the 6th-8th place decider bracket, losing team is eliminated.
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: autimatic 1.26 | Brehze 1.14 | CeRq 1.11 | RUSH 0.97 | Stewie2K 0.88
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: autimatic 1.04 | Brehze 1.00  | CeRq 0.98 | RUSH 0.93 | Stewie2K 0.92
  • Party Astronauts - Rating at event: PwnAlone 1.06 | viz 1.04 | ben1337 1.00 | djay 0.97 | Jonji 0.94
  • Party Astronauts - Rating past three months: PwnAlone 1.18 | Jonji 1.11 | djay 1.10 | ben1337 1.00 | viz 0.97

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced last month in a best-of-one on Inferno and Party Astronauts won 16-7. Ben1337 led the server with 23 kills and a 1.66 Rating. 

Map Projections:

Party Astronauts removes Vertigo

Evil Geniuses removes Ancient

Party Astronauts picks Nuke

Evil Geniuses picks Inferno

Party Astronauts removes Overpass

Evil Geniuses removes Dust2

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Evil Geniuses win 2-1.

This feels like a “win or disband” type of match for Evil Geniuses. This lineup has yet to find much success and qualifying for the Major would mean a lot to EG since they have three former Major winners. The individuals on EG are more talented than Party Astronauts, but the team play of Party Astronauts seems much better at times. Still, an organization like EG just can’t afford to lose to a mediocre team without an organization that is led by a 31-year-old, PwnAlone. These teams faced last month, and Party Astronauts came out on top in a convincing fashion, but that match was just for seeding purposes and did not mean much to EG. The stakes are now much higher, and we are on LAN, so I expect a much better performance from Evil Geniuses. The maps are a bit iffy here with neither team establishing much of a map pool with their current lineup, and Inferno is the most played map for both sides. I could see this one going three maps since EG haven’t shown us that they can dominate their opponents yet, but if they were ever going to prove themselves, it would be right now. 

  • On Nuke, RUSH leads EG with a 1.03 Rating, while CeRq leads with a 1.16 K/D ratio across three maps played. 
  • On Inferno, autimatic leads EG with a 1.06 Rating, while CeRq leads with a 1.10 K/D ratio across 10 maps played. 
  • On Mirage, autimatic leads EG with a 1.49 Rating and 1.79 K/D ratio across two maps played.
  • Stewie2K leads EG with 28.9% opening duel attempts, while Jonji leads Party Astronauts with 34.7% opening duel attempts.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

autimatic ($9,800) | RUSH ($7,000) | Stewie2K ($6,000) | CeRq ($8,200) | PwnAlone ($7,200) | Brehze ($9,200) | ben1337 ($5,000) 

 

*Top Stacks: Evil Geniuses, Case

*Favorite Captains: autimatic, RCF, CeRq, Brehze, biguzera

*Favorite Value Options: honda, RUSH, f4stzin, Stewie2K, steel, PwnAlone