Complexity (World rank: #22) vs. Sao Caetano (World rank: #139) - 8:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-1500) | Sao Caetano (+750)

Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (-285) | Sao Caetano +1.5 (+205)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+240) | Under 2.5 (-340)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Americas RMR - Swiss round 4 (teams with a 2-1 record). Winner advances to PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Challengers Stage
  • Complexity - Rating at event: Grim 1.18 | floppy  1.15 | junior 1.10 | JT 1.06 | FaNg 0.88
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: floppy 1.12 | Grim 1.04 | junior 1.03 | FaNg 1.02 | JT 0.90
  • Sao Caetano - Rating at event: delboNi 1.22 | SHOOWTiME  1.19 | ckzao 0.93 | danoco 0.92 | zqkS 0.89
  • Sao Caetano - Rating past three months: zqkS 1.07 | SHOOWTiME 1.05 | delboNi 1.01 | danoco  1.00 | ckzao 0.88

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Prediction/Narrative: Complexity wins 2-0.

Complexity are the biggest favorite on the slate, and I see no reason to fade them here. They are currently the sixth highest-rated team at the event with a 1.07 Team Rating across four maps played, though Sao Caetano are not far behind in eighth with a 1.03 Team Rating. Complexity started the event 2-0, but lost against FURIA, who are on fire as the highest-rated team so far. Sao Caetano managed close wins against Isurus & Bad News Bears, and they almost were able to beat Imperial, but I think they should be outclassed here as CoL look to secure their spot in the Major. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

floppy ($9,800) | FaNg ($7,000) | junior ($8,200) | JT ($6,000) | Grim ($9,000)

 

paiN (World rank: #37) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #49) - 8:45 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: paiN (-355) | TeamOne (+275)

Map Handicap: paiN -1.5 (-105) | TeamOne +1.5 (-115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+145) | Under 2.5 (-175)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Americas RMR - Swiss round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.
  • paiN - Rating at event: nython 1.21 | NEKIZ 0.97 | hardzao 0.97 | PKL 0.88 | biguzera 0.78
  • paiN - Rating past three months: nython 1.18 | hardzao  1.10 | biguzera 1.10 | NEKIZ 1.09 | PKL 1.02
  • TeamOne - Rating at event: trk 1.00 | xns 0.97 | pesadelo 0.95 | Maluk3 0.91 | keiz 0.84
  • TeamOne - Rating past three months: pesadelo 1.17 | xns 1.09 | trk 1.07 | Maluk3  1.06 | keiz 0.97

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced last week, and paiN swept 2-0 (16-11 Mirage / 16-12 Nuke). Nython led the server with 44 kills and a 1.32 Rating. 

Prediction/Narrative: paiN wins 2-1.

These teams just played each other and both maps were fairly close. Anything can happen in a Brazilian derby, but paiN still looked like the clear better team last time, and I expect that to continue as a loss means that they don’t qualify for the Major. TeamOne picked Mirage last time and I expect them to pick it again. They won pistol but lost the second round force buy on their T side, which really set-up the paiN economy nicely. I expect a different result on Mirage if it is played again, but I favor paiN to win the series in three maps as a heavy favorite. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

nython ($9,200) | NEKIZ ($6,600) | hardzao ($7,600) | pesadelo ($7,400) | biguzera ($8,600) | PKL ($5,800) | trk ($6,000)

 

Liquid (World rank: #14) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #44) - 12:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-560) | Evil Geniuses (+410)

Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (-145) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (+120)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+165) | Under 2.5 (-200)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Americas RMR - Swiss round 4 (teams with a 2-1 record). Winner advances to PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Challengers Stage
  • Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.63 | oSee 1.51 | EliGE 1.43 | nitr0 1.18 | shox 0.98
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.19 | NAF  1.17 | oSee 1.13 | nitr0 0.97 | shox 0.95
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: CeRq 1.33 | Brehze  1.28 | autimatic 1.20 | RUSH 1.11 | Stewie2K 0.90
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: autimatic 1.01 | CeRq 1.00 | Brehze 1.00 | RUSH 0.94 | Stewie2K 0.93

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in January at BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022 and Liquid won 19-17 in a best-of-one on Inferno. With 30 kills and a 1.32 Rating, oSee topped the leaderboards. 

Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-1.

Liquid started the event with a surprising loss to 00Nation, but they have been smoking teams since then with a 16-3 win over TeamOne and a 16-1 win against paiN. Liquid are currently the second highest-rated team at the event with a 1.35 Team Rating across three maps played, and their individuals have been excellent. NAF leads the event with a 1.63 Rating, oSee is in second with a 1.51 Rating, and EliGE is right there in fourth with a 1.43 Rating. With that being said, there is history between these North American teams, and EG are also in good form. Evil Geniuses are the third highest-rated team with a 1.16 Team Rating across three maps played, and CeRq has stepped up his play as the eighth highest-rated player with a 1.33 Rating. Liquid is the clear better team, but I expect this to be a good series based on the way EG is playing at the moment, and the fact that these players know each other’s tendencies as well as anybody.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

oSee ($8,400) | NAF ($9,400) | EliGE ($10,400) | CeRq ($6,200) | nitr0 ($7,400) | autimatic ($6,800) | shox ($6,600) | Stewie2K ($4,000)

 

Isurus (World rank: #83) vs. Case (World rank: #71) - 12:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Isurus (+160) | Case (-195)

Map Handicap: Isurus +1.5 (-195) | Case -1.5 (+155)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Americas RMR - Swiss round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.
  • Isurus - Rating at event: Noktse 1.03 | Gafolo  1.03 | deco 0.94 | DeStiNy 0.92 | ALLE 0.90
  • Isurus - Rating past three months: DeStiNy 1.11 | deco 1.03 | ALLE 1.03 | Noktse 1.01 | Gafolo 1.00
  • Case - Rating at event: honda 1.22 | RCF 0.96 | f4stzin 0.83 | steel 0.81 | yepz 0.72
  • Case - Rating past three months: RCF 1.17 | honda 1.10 | yepz 1.05 | f4stzin  1.03 | steel 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced in March and Case won 2-0 (16-13 Overpass / 16-11 Inferno). RCF led the server with 47 kills and a 1.37 Rating across two maps played.

Prediction/Narrative: Isurus wins 2-1.

Neither of these teams have been overly impressive at this event, but Isurus beat Party Astronauts 16-8 on Nuke, while Case lost to them 6-16 on Inferno. Isurus have looked slightly better in my opinion, and this match-up was pretty close when these teams last faced despite the fact that Case swept. I think there is just as much, if not more talent on Isurus than Case, so I feel comfortable backing them as an underdog here. Neither team seems to have much of an advantage in terms of the map pool either. Anything can happen in a Brazilian derby, and I think Isurus will be able to pull this series out.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

Gafolo ($4,600) | ALLE ($7,200) | DeStiNy ($7,800) | RCF ($8,800) | deco ($6,400) | honda ($8,000) 

 

*Top Stacks: Complexity, paiN, Liquid, Isurus

*Favorite Captains: floppy, oSee, nython, junior, NAF, DeStiNy, EliGE, hardzao, RCF, Grim, pesadelo

*Favorite Value Options: Gafolo, FaNg, NEKIZ, ALLE, JT, CeRq, PKL, nitr0, deco, autimatic