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Natus Vincere (World rank: #2) vs. G2 (World rank: #6) – 1:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-135) | G2 (+110)

Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+205) | G2 -1.5 (-255)

This is a best-of-three on LAN for the quarter-finals of the ESL Pro League Season 16 playoffs.

NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.17 | Perfecto 1.07 | electronic 1.02 | b1t 1.01 | sdy 0.98

NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.19 | electronic 1.09 | Perfecto 1.06 | b1t 1.06 | sdy 0.97

G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.29 | m0NESY 1.28 | huNter- 1.18 | jks 1.13 | HooXi 1.02

G2 - Rating past three months: m0NESY 1.24 | NiKo 1.22 | huNter- 1.14 | jks 1.03 | HooXi 0.87

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in August at BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022 with headtr1ck standing in for s1mple. NAVI won 16-14 in a best-of-one on Mirage and electronic & m0NESY led the server with 29 kills each.

Projected Maps:

G2 removes Overpass

NAVI removes Vertigo

G2 picks Inferno/Ancient

NAVI picks Mirage

G2 removes Dust2

NAVI removes Ancient/Inferno

Nuke is left over

Prediction: G2 wins 2-1.

G2 are the hottest team at ESL Pro League Season 16. They lead the event with a 1.18 Team Rating, a 1.24 Team K/D ratio, and they went 5-0 in a group that included FaZe, Outsiders, and BIG. There were concerns about the individual form of HooXi coming into this event, but he has managed a 1.02 Rating while leading his team to victory. Meanwhile, NAVI lost three straight matches to finish third in Group A, and they came close to losing their opening playoff match-up against Heroic. NAVI have not been in their best form in recent weeks, plus we know that there has been drama going on between s1mple and the hotel that he has been staying at, per his twitter. There were certainly some indicators that Heroic had upset potential against NAVI on Wednesday, but ultimately I concluded that Heroic were still not good enough to take down NAVI at the moment. However, I think G2 do have the talent to pull the upset, especially with their incredible form as of late. G2 have a 15-5 W/L record across 20 maps played since adding HooXi & jks and they did not drop a single map during the group stage. As for NAVI, they have only an 8-8 W/L record across 16 maps played in the past month, and there have been questionable losses like when they got swept by Endpoint as a (-2100) moneyline favorite. G2 have shown a solid map pool so far with Ancient (3-0 W/L), Nuke (2-0 W/L), Vertigo (3-1 W/L), Dust2 (3-1 W/L), and Inferno (2-1 W/L) all looking like viable options for them, while NAVI have only managed a win rate above 50% on Mirage and Nuke in the past month. S1mple is often the best player on the server, but G2 seems motivated to win this event and I think they are good enough to get the victory. 

  • NiKo leads G2 at this event with 0.15 opening kills per round and 27.5% opening duel attempts.
  • m0NESY leads G2 at this event with a 1.48 K/D ratio across 10 maps played. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

NiKo ($9,800) | m0NESY ($10,800) | s1mple ($11,200) | huNter- ($8,800) | electronic ($10,400) | b1t ($9,400) | jks ($7,800) | Perfecto ($8,200) | sdy ($7,000) | HooXi ($6,600)