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NAVI (World rank: #2) vs. Heroic (World rank: #12) – 1:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-225) | Heroic (+180)

Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+130) | Heroic -1.5 (-160)

This is a best-of-three on LAN for the first round of the playoffs of ESL Pro League Season 16

NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.11 | Perfecto 1.05 | electronic 1.01 | sdy 0.99 | b1t 0.99

NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.17 | electronic 1.09 | Perfecto 1.05 | b1t 1.04 | sdy 0.97

Heroic - Rating at event: cadiaN 1.19 | TeSeS 1.19 | sjuush 1.12 | stavn 1.08 | jabbi 1.04

Heroic - Rating past three months: TeSeS 1.12 | stavn 1.12 | cadiaN 1.08 | sjuush 1.08 | jabbi 1.00

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced at PGL Major Antwerp 2022, prior to NAVI adding sdy and Heroic adding jabbi, and NAVI won 2-1 (10-16 Inferno / 16-14 Ancient / 16-8 Nuke). Electronic led the server with 75 kills and a 1.46 Rating across three maps played. 

Projected Maps:

NAVI removes Vertigo

Heroic removes Dust2

NAVI picks Mirage

Heroic picks Inferno

NAVI removes Ancient

Heroic removes Overpass

Nuke Is left over

Prediction: NAVI wins 2-1.

NAVI were the favorites to win Group A, although they finished in third behind Vitality & Fnatic with only a 2-3 W/L record. NAVI opened up with wins over Spirit and Fnatic, but went on to lose three straight against Endpoint, Vitality, and Ninjas in Pyjamas. The loss against Endpoint was particularly notable as NAVI came into the match as (-2100) moneyline favorites, giving them an implied win probability of over 95%. Overall, NAVI have looked solid with a 27-15 W/L record across 42 maps played since sdy joined and electronic took over as IGL. Still, in the past this has been a team that has prioritized Majors over smaller events such as ESL Pro League, and NAVI might not be as focused on winning this event as they are the upcoming RMR, as demonstrated by their poor showing during the group stage. For what it’s worth, s1mple has been on Twitter complaining about the “gloomy hotel” that he has been staying at for this event, calling it dirty and posting a concerning picture of heavy mold by his air vent. It might seem like a small detail, but having your star player’s quality of life affected could prove to hurt his performance on the server.

Meanwhile, Heroic are starting to heat up. The Danes have a 15-14 W/L record across 29 maps played with this lineup, though they have now won four matches in a row at ESL Pro League Season 16, taking down Astralis, HEET, Complexity, and ENCE. The LAN environment with a small crowd has not been favorable to Heroic in the past, but they did win ESL Pro League Season 13 with four of their current players, so they might already have a level of comfort at this event despite S13 taking place online. 

Thus, there are certainly reasons why Heroic are capable of pulling the upset here, but I still prefer to back NAVI as the favorite since they are the clear better team. Mirage is NAVI’s most played map while it is Heroic’s least played map (besides their permaban, Dust2) and NAVI have the superior win rate with an 8-4 W/L record across 12 maps played. Heroic don’t have as obvious of a map choice considering Nuke is their most played map, and NAVI are perhaps the best team in the world on that map. I expect Heroic to go for Inferno in this spot considering they have beaten NAVI on it in the past, though NAVI have the superior win rate there as well with a 6-4 W/L record. Nuke would likely be the decider and NAVI have only lost once on that map in five tries with a dominant 82.4% 5v4 conversion rate and 34.4% 4v5 conversion rate. When these teams played at the Major, Heroic played NAVI close for the first two maps, but then it came down to Nuke as the decider and NAVI ran away with the map after a one-sided 12-3 CT half. I expect NAVI to win on Nuke if it is the decider map once again. I came into this match-up thinking that a 2-0 win for NAVI would be my prediction, but given the form that these teams have showed at this event, I will give Heroic credit to keep things close and maybe win a map. Still, that’s not enough for me to believe that Heroic will get the win, but I’ve at least laid out the possible narratives if you do decide to back the Danes as an underdog.

  • s1mple leads NAVI at this event with a 1.11 Rating, 1.14 K/D ratio, 0.13 opening kills per round, and 24.9% opening duel attempts across 13 maps played.
  • On Mirage, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.28 Rating and 1.38 K/D ratio across 12 maps played.
  • On Inferno, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.28 Rating and 1.30 K/D ratio across 10 maps played.
  • On Nuke, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.23 Rating and 1.39 K/D ratio across five maps played.
  • TeSeS & cadiaN lead Heroic at this event with a 1.19 Rating, while cadiaN leads with a 1.28 K/D ratio. TeSeS also leads with 0.12 opening kills per round, while jabbi leads with 22.2% opening duel attempts.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

s1mple ($11,800) | b1t ($9,800) | electronic ($10,800) | stavn ($10,400) | Perfecto ($8,600) | sdy ($7,000) | sjuush ($7,600) | TeSeS ($9,400) | jabbi ($6,600) | cadiaN ($8,200)