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IKLA (World rank: #95) vs. Into The Breach (World rank: #41) - 5:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: IKLA (-130) | Into The Breach (Even)

Map Handicap: IKLA -1.5 (+205) | Into The Breach +1.5 (-285) 

This is an online best-of-three series for Elisa Invitational Fall 2022 - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.

IKLA - Rating at event: s4ltovsk1yy 1.26 | Kvem 1.21 | SENSEi 1.15 | byr9 0.96 | j3kie 0.90

IKLA - Rating past three months: Kvem 1.19 | SENSEi 1.19 | s4ltovsk1yy 1.15 | j3kie 1.11 | byr9 1.02

Into The Breach - Rating at event: draken 1.09 | Adam9130 1.01 | RuStY 0.94 | CYPHER 0.91 | dobbo 0.76

Into The Breach - Rating past three months: draken 1.18 | RuStY 1.12 | CYPHER 1.12 | Adam9130 1.01 | dobbo 0.99

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction: Into The Breach wins 2-1.

IKLA, formerly known as EC Kyiv, benched their star rifler, uQlutzavr, and added SENSEi & j3kie on trial at the end of September. We’ve only seen this lineup play a single best-of-three together, which was a loss to Endpoint. Meanwhile, Into The Breach have a 34-20 W/L record across 54 maps played, and in the past month they have beaten Entropiq, Aurora, eSuba, xDDDD, MOUZ NXT, Illuminar, and ECSTATIC. ITB have shown a strong map pool with a 10-2 W/L record on Nuke, an 8-3 W/L record on Overpass, and a 5-3 W/L record on Inferno. Mirage has been their favorite map, though they have been losing on it recently to some solid teams. Despite a 6-8 W/L record on Mirage, Into The Breach still have an impressive 79.8% 5v4 conversion rate, which indicates that they are likely due for more success on the map moving forward. I think Into The Breach are the better team at the moment especially given the uncertainties surrounding IKLA, so I am happy to back ITB on Draftkings at cheaper pricing. Still, s4ltovsk1yy & Kvem showed against Endpoint that they can frag even in a loss, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them has another good performance. Into The Breach is my preferred team to stack, but some exposure to s4ltovsk1yy or Kvem could make sense if this series stays as close as the odds indicate. 

  • CYPHER leads Into The Breach with 0.13 opening kills per round and 27.9% opening duel attempts across 25 maps played in the past month. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

draken ($8,400) | CYPHER ($7,400) | RuStY ($6,600) | s4ltovsk1yy ($6,800) | Kvem ($7,800) | Adam9130 ($5,600) 

 

SINNERS (World rank: #57) vs. Sashi (World rank: #115) - 8:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: SINNERS (-785) | Sashi (+455)

Map Handicap: SINNERS -1.5 (-185) | Sashi +1.5 (+135) 

This is an online best-of-three series for Elisa Invitational Fall 2022 - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated..

SINNERS - Rating at event: forsyy 1.08 | Zero 1.06 | ZEDKO 1.03 | SHOCK 1.03 | beastik 0.87

SINNERS - Rating past three months: forsyy 1.16 | ZEDKO 1.12 | Zero 1.09 | SHOCK 0.99 | beastik 0.98

Sashi - Rating at event: leakz 1.04 | vester 1.01 | Ming0 0.93 | Ryxxo 0.92 | alexsomfan 0.85

Sashi - Rating past three months: Ryxxo 1.06 | vester 1.05 | leakz 0.97 | Ming0 0.94 | alexsomfan 0.92

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction: SINNERS win 2-0.

SINNERS added Zero from GamerLegion back in July, and the team has had mixed results since with a 28-28 W/L record across 56 maps played. In the past month, SINNERS have beaten Entropiq Prague, BLUEJAYS, Finest, Hotspurs, ex-SKADE, Onyx, Nexus, Into The Breach, and los kogutos. During that time they also took a map against HEET, Eternal Fire, EC Kyiv, Enterprise, Bad News Eagles, and MASONIC, so SINNERS have certainly proved that they can hang with the tier two scene. Still, I’m surprised to see them as such heavy favorites in this spot. Sashi have been exceeding expectations with leakz in the lineup with a 5-6 W/L record across 11 maps played including wins against SKADE X & Hotspurs, plus they took a map against ECSTATIC. Leakz has only managed a 0.97 Rating in this lineup, but he is an up and coming 19 year old with over 6,000 ELO on FACEIT, so watch out for him. SINNERS have a solid map pool with a 7-4 W/L record on Mirage,  a 6-4 W/L record on Vertigo and a 7-6 W/L record on Overpass, and a sweep is certainly possible, but I still think the implied odds seem too high for SINNERS with all things considered. Is that enough for me to want to stack Sashi on this slate? Not really since SINNERS should still win. However, it may be worth taking a flyer on a cracked, unknown player like leakz, or maybe Ryxxo is worth a shot  given his floor/ceiling with the AWP. The pricing for Sashi is cheap on Draftkings, particularly with leakz, and the ownership might be low given the odds. Ultimately, SINNERS is the main team to target here, and SHOCK is my favorite play in this match-up. SHOCK is the second most aggressive player on SINNERS in the past month with 21.8% opening duel attempts, so he may have high entry upside in this favorable spot at only $6,000 on Draftkings.

  • forsyy leads SINNERS with 0.12 opening kills per round while ZEDKO leads with 22.6% opening duel attempts across 47 maps played in the past month. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

SHOCK ($6,000) | forsyy ($9,800) | ZEDKO ($9,200) | Zero ($8,000) | leakz ($5,400) | Ryxxo ($7,000) 

 

**Top Stacks: SINNERS, Into The Breach

**Favorite Captains: forsyy, ZEDKO, draken, CYPHER

**Favorite Riskier/Value Plays: SHOCK, Zero, RuStY, s4ltovsk1yy, Kvem, Adam9130, leakz, Ryxxo