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Vitality (World rank: #7) vs. OG (World rank: #16) – 7:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-155) | OG (+125)

Round Handicap: Vitality -2.5 (-105) | OG +2.5 (-115)

This is a best-of-one on LAN for the Group A Upper Bracket Semi-Final of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022.

Vitality - Rating at event: N/A

Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.24 | Magisk 1.06 | dupreeh 1.03 | Spinx 1.02 | apEX 0.94

OG - Rating at event: N/A

OG - Rating past three months: degster 1.22 | flameZ 1.12 | nexa 1.05 | NEOFRAG 1.05 | F1KU 1.00

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. 

Prediction/Narrative: OG wins 16-12 on Vertigo.

Vitality officially announced their acquisition of Spinx earlier this month, and he should give them a huge boost in firepower. Spinx has had an amazing year in 2022 with a 1.15 Rating across 115 maps played, and he has proven that he is one of the best riflers in the world at the moment. He is replacing misutaaa, who averaged only a 0.93 Rating in 2022 with Vitality across 86 maps played, so it should be a clear upgrade, though this is the first event that we will see this new lineup in action. As for OG, they originally brought degster in as a stand-in back in June, and he was so unbelievably good that the team just decided to sign him to a deal to take mantuu’s spot. OG have an 11-5 W/L record across 16 maps played with degster in the lineup, and they have already taken down two elite teams: NAVI & ENCE. Spinx may bring extra firepower to Vitality, but OG have plenty of firepower themselves. Every member of OG has managed at least a 1.05 Rating across their 16 maps played together, and this team has tons of young talent. Vitality looked good, but not great in the past three months with a 17-18 W/L record across 35 maps played, so they will need to prove their new lineup to me before I can fully trust them. I don’t think Vitality should be anything more than a pick ‘em against OG in a best-of-one, at least at this point with Spinx being new, so I prefer to ride with OG as an underdog here. There are some decent options on Vitality: ZywOo was ranked the #2 best player in the world in 2021 and he should always be in consideration for DFS, while Spinx is simply way underpriced at $5,800. However, my main focus on Draftkings will be OG as I think they can get the win and they are cheaper to stack.

  • degster leads OG with a 1.29 Rating and 1.43 K/D ratio across 16 maps played.
  • NEOFRAG leads OG with 0.15 opening kills per round and 24.8% opening duel attempts during that time. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

degster ($8,800) | NEOFRAG ($5,000) | ZywOo ($9,800) | Spinx ($5,800) | flameZ ($7,000) | F1KU ($4,200) | nexa ($6,200) 

 

Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #5) vs. Astralis (World rank: #4) – 8:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Ninjas in Pyjamas (-125) | Astralis (+105)

Round Handicap: Ninjas in Pyjamas -2.5 (+115) | Astralis +2.5 (-140)

This is a best-of-one on LAN for the Group A Upper Bracket Semi-Final of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022.

Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: N/A

Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: hampus 1.13 | Brollan 1.13 | REZ 1.09 | es3tag 1.01 | Plopski 0.94

Astralis - Rating at event: N/A

Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.29 | k0nfig 1.04 | Xyp9x 1.02 | Farlig 0.96 | gla1ve 0.95

H2H Data:

These rosters last faced in April at BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2022 Europe and Astralis won 2-0 (Nuke 16-11 / Mirage 16-1). Farlig led the server with 43 kills and a 1.59 Rating across two maps.

Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 16-10 on Overpass.

Astralis destroyed NiP when they last met, but I still think NiP are the better team right now. The teams last played in April, which was right near the start of es3tag taking over the primary AWP role, and Farlig way outplayed him. Later on at IEM Cologne 2022, es3tag proved to be viable on the AWP and NiP were able to take down Heroic and G2. On the other side of the server, Astralis continue to be inconsistent and are coming off of an inexcusable loss to Aurora on Tuesday. BlameF & k0nfig are the only members of Astralis with a Rating above one across 88 maps played with this lineup, and blameF seems to be the only player they can really rely on. Sure, k0nfig has a high ceiling, but his performances come with a ton of volatility. Astralis’ favorite map, Nuke, should get banned away, while both teams are solid on Inferno, Ancient, and Overpass. There were some doubts about whether or not this NiP lineup would be permanent, but they have a well-structured team and have managed a 19-15 W/L record across 34 maps played and they continue to look better. I like taking NiP in this spot because I just don’t trust Astralis, especially with how bad they looked earlier in the week. 

  • Brollan leads this NiP lineup with a 1.11 Rating, while REZ leads with a 1.05 K/D ratio across 34 maps played.
  • Brollan also leads with 0.15 opening kills per round and 27.7% opening duel attempts during that time.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

Brollan ($8,000) | REZ ($7,200) | blameF ($9,200) | es3tag ($6,000) | k0nfig ($7,400) | hampus ($9,400) | Farlig ($5,600) 

 

*Top Stacks: OG, NiP

*Top Captains: degster, Brollan, ZywOo, blameF, hampus

*Top Value: REZ, NEOFRAG, es3tag, Spinx, k0nfig, flameZ, F1KU, nexa, Farlig