The crazy thing about Saturday’s EPL DFS slate, especially on DraftKings, is how risky the top-tier players are. Those players are probably most likely to score goals but they aren’t going to consistently send in crosses and create chances like the mid-priced midfielders and defenders. This creates a scenario for cash games where you could reasonably play two of the top defenders and a collection of mid-priced and value attackers while fading the top tier altogether. In tournaments, you probably want to chase goals from Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and whoever starts for Manchester City, but my cash lineups will look drastically different from that.
EPL Playbook
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Dean Henderson
NFO
BOU
5200
9.04
12
12.90
One of these days I'm going to fade Dean Henderson and Nick Pope, but today is not that day. Bournemouth is goalless in its last four games. I think Nottingham Forest is pretty clearly the better team, and they are at home.
Lukasz Fabianski
WHU
CHE
4400
5.04
7
8.00
For as bad as West Ham has been this season, defense hasn't been their problem. Only six teams have allowed fewer goals. Chelsea, for their part, is tied for 11th in goals. I'll have egg on my face if this is Chelsea's get right game, but considering the price, this is very tempting.
Ederson
MCI
AVL
14
12.70
If you're paying up for a keeper on FanDuel, you should go all the way. Aston Villa hasn't shown up in any game outside of a win over a hapless Everton side. Manchester City, on the other hand, looks unbeatable. City's defense hasn't exactly been inpenetrable but there is nothing wrong with locking in the win and hoping for a clean sheet.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Julian Alvarez
MCI
AVL
18
14.05
He scored two goals in his first start with his new team and we might see a repeat performance is Erling Haaland sits. He also created two chances so there is a chance he can produce for fantasy even if he is kept out of the goal.
Alexander Isak
NEW
CRY
6600
14.14
17
23.90
Isak scored at Liverpool Wednesday in his first game for Newcastle, and he has a much easier matchup Saturday. He is purely a GPP play on both sites, but he is proably Newcastle's best bet to score outside of Kieran Trippier.
Raheem Sterling
CHE
WHU
9000
13.97
19
20.98
Sterling has been the lone bright spot for Chelsea, scoring three goals in his last two games and scoring double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four. He is safer than many of the top forwards and he is your best bet if you want to target Chelsea's attack.
Wilfried Zaha
CRY
NEW
9300
21.14
20
30.52
Zaha has never been a pillar of consistency, but he has scored at least 12.4 DK fantasy points in all four games this season. I don't love the matchup but Newcastle can be scored against.
Harry Kane
TOT
FUL
10500
17.87
22
29.56
He is my top non-Manchester City target on FanDuel. I don't know why he laid an egg against West Ham but I'm wiling to write it off as an aberration. Kane averaged 2.5 chances created and 1.0 goals in his four previous games, and I like his chances of scoring Saturday.
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Goncalo Guedes
WOL
SOU
6700
8.21
15
8.65
Guedes was disappointing at Bournemouth midweek but he is still averaging 10.4 DK fantasy points in three starts. Only three teams have allowed more goals than Southampton this season which makes this one of the few times I actually expect Wolverhampton to score. If they do get a goal, there is a good chance Guedes is involved.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Moussa Djenepo
SOU
WOL
4800
7.23
8
9.52
His days of starting may be numbered, but I doubt Romain Perraud is ready to start after playing 73 minutes Tuesday in his first start of the season. Djenepo is averaging 8.7 DK fantasy points in four starts, and this should be a better matchup than any of those previous games.
Marcus Tavernier
BOU
NFO
5800
8.1
14
7.66
In the two games Bournemouth hasn't played against top six sides, Tavernier has scored at least 12 DK fantasy points. I like Tavernier's floor and if Bournemouth is able to score, there is a good chance he will be involved.
Eberechi Eze
CRY
NEW
7600
10.47
14
10.42
I think Eze is the safest forward on the entire slate. He is still searching for his first goal but he is creating chances consistently even in some very tough matchups. He will be in most of my lineups on both sites.
James Ward-Prowse
SOU
WOL
8200
14.08
17
18.14
Ward-Prowse had seven crosses against Chelsea but only scored 2.3 fantasy points in a game his team won. I can't wrap my head around it, especially after he topped 17 DK fantasy points againstLeicester, Manchester United and Tottenham. This is Ward-Prowse's lowest price of the year, and I intend to take advantage.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Emerson Royal
TOT
FUL
5300
9.52
11
13.92
Emerson has scored nearly twice as many fantasy points as Sessegnon and he costs just $400 more on DraftKings. I would be shocked if Ivan Perisic doesn't get a rest, making Royal the most affordable piece of the Spurs attack.
Kieran Trippier
NEW
CRY
5900
12.02
14
18.06
This is the cheapest he has been this season and I would be lying if I said I understood why. He was shut out at Liverpool but had double-digit DK fantasy points in his out four games. Trippier is safer on DK but I like him for FD GPPs as well.
Renan Lodi
NFO
BOU
4800
5.22
10
5.20
He managed three crosses and a shot in his EPL debut at Manchester City, and his floor Saturday is probably higher than that. If you cannot afford Neco Williams, Lodi is a fine alternative.
Lloyd Kelly
BOU
NFO
3400
7.24
13
16.80
I don't expect much from Bournemouth's outside backs but Kelly is averaging 8.9 DK fantasy points in his three games not against Manchester City. Only two teams have allowed more crosses than Nottingham Forest this season.
Reece James
CHE
WHU
7400
16.13
15
21.00
There is no denying James's production, especially when you compare to similarly-priced players at other positions. He is certainly safe, and I like his chances
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Tyrone Mings
AVL
MCI
10
10.83
Mings is starting to round into his form from recent seasons, with six clearances in two of his last three games. This doesn't look like a great slate for defensive stats but I'm willing to take a shot on Mings at his price.
Tim Ream
FUL
TOT
3000
3.05
11
13.22
Tosin Adarabioyo has been more consistent, but Ream has a higher ceiling and looks like a better value. Ream was quiet last week against Brighton but this should be a better matchup for defensive stats.
EPL Playbook Core Plays
Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
James Ward-Prowse
$8,200
Reece James
$7,400
Mid Tier
Marcus Tavernier
$5,800
Kieran Trippier
$5,900
Value Tier
Lloyd Kelly
$3,500
Moussa Djenepo
$4,800
Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Julian Alvarez
$18
Harry Kane
$22
Mid Tier
Eberechi Eze
$14
Goncalo Guedes
$15
Value Tier
Tim Ream
$11
Lukasz Fabianski
$7
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