Bell of the Ball
Unless you were on Flight 828 from Jamaica to New York City back in 2013, you probably now know that Le’Veon Bell is on the trading block… Anyone? No? I guess only those who watched the pilot of NBC’s Manifest will get that one. Don’t get the reference? Try this one… Unless you were unknowingly on a magical plane that time traveled five years into the future, you probably are aware that Le’Veon Bell is on the trading block. Yes, you heard that right, a 1-1-1 team with legitimate playoff hopes is prepared to trade the league’s best back.
For us fantasy nuts, understandably, we are looking for some insight on where he might go and what his potential fantasy future would be with that team. Maybe this magical time traveling plane will come in handy after all… Unfortunately though, I do not have access to the studios at NBC, so I will instead use my self-proclaimed, disciplined fantasy football insight.
Below are the teams with the best current odds to land Bell. Looking at their current rosters, offensive scheme, and standing in the power rankings, I will give you my brief thoughts on how he will fare going forward. Will he return to fantasy football prominence or will he be considered a product of the Steelers offensive juggernaut?
Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers (+500)
Right now, the Colts are my favorite fit because they have lacked an elite running back for so long. Imagine putting the multi-talented Bell in an offense led by the mind and toughness of Andrew Luck ? With their defense so far taking significant strides from last season to this, the Colts may be just an all-time great running back away from making some serious noise in the AFC South. Just think about it… Instead of taking a million unnecessary hits per game, Luck would instead have arguably the best receiving back in football to dump it off to. It will extend his career in that regard alone, not to mention what type of dynamic a back such as Bell could bring to a historically one-dimensional offense.
The same could largely be said for the Packers, as they desperately need to take some pressure off of their injured quarterback. Aaron Rodgers – on one leg, mind you – is doing all that he can to carry this team into the playoffs, but if he is going to last this season, he will need a lot of help. Throughout all of Ben Roethlisberger ’s nicks and bruises over the years, Le’Veon Bell has been the constant engine to carry the Steelers offense. In a very similar offensive scheme, the learning curve would not be too high for Bell. The Packers are correctly rated with a tie for the best odds to land Bell.
Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans (+600)
Not really sure how the Titans are ranked this high. They not only have invested a draft pick on a franchise back in Derrick Henry , but they also just spent a ton of money on another one in Dion Lewis this past offseason. To top all of this off, they are already leading their division without Bell, so why add him to an already crowded backfield?
Houston contrarily, makes WAY more sense as a potential Bell landing spot. What would be better for a young and rapidly developing quarterback than the addition of a future hall of fame running back? Bell would immediately become the focus of defenses, while the Houston offense would eerily mirror that of the Steelers – talented and deep receiving corps, Le’Veon Bell, and a big quarterback who is tough to bring down.
San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys (+700)
These odds were released before the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo , so I will choose to neglect the Niners here. Let’s be honest, without their star quarterback, San Fran is in no position to “go for it” and take a flier on a rental running back.
I get it, Ezekiel Elliott is already there, but this Dallas offense has to do something. We know that Bell is more than just a running back, so it would be on this Cowboys coaching staff to get creative with potentially two All-Pro backs in their coffers – I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one. Anyway, for the sake of argument, I would say that adding Bell to what is already the league’s worst offense couldn’t make them any worse. If this were to occur, defenses would have nightmares wondering how to handle sets including both Bell and Elliott. Think about it: A shotgun set with Bell on one side of Dak Prescott and Zeke on the other. Against a triple-option, running behind that offensive line! Who do you choose to stop as a defense?? Think about sending one or both of the backs in motion. The defensive confusion alone would be worth the price of admission. C’mon Jerry, make it happen!
New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks (+800)
Surprised to see both of these teams this far down the list, as I think the fits make a lot of sense.
For the Jets, having a young quarterback paired with an elite running back is a no brainer. Bell would become a favorite check down option for Sam Darnold (a play design that the Jets coaching staff have inexplicably fallen in love with). He also would be able to carve out some serious real estate on the ground considering the Jets improvements on the offensive line this season. To top it all off, adding Bell would also give the Jets the go-ahead to rightfully cut Isaiah Crowell after his disgusting celebration in Cleveland last week.
Last season, Russell Wilson came close to accounting for 100% of his team’s total offense. He continually leads his team in rushing and it is obviously not by choice or design. Wilson is running for his life each Sunday and he has yet to have a running back equally share the load since the departure of Marshawn Lynch . Le’Veon Bell would fit like a glove in Seattle with their oddball locker room and individualistic personalities. He most importantly could take a large percentage of usage from Russell Wilson , likely extending Wilson’s career in the long run.
Told you so…
Back in July, I had a bone to pick with the fantasy football community. It was only a few months removed from the draft and the world was still buzzing about the Browns haul. They were looking to enter the regular season with a loaded new roster; a couple of legitimate quarterbacks, a revamped defense, and a darling new running back Nick Chubb . Led by TyRod Taylor ’s conservative quarterback play and Chubb’s work on the ground, expectations were to not only win a game again for the first time in two years, but to also to win multiple games for the first time since 2015.
While I was also keen on the Browns chances of improving from the last handful of years, my real qualm was with how everyone assumed they would do it.
By the mid-summer, Nick Chubb ’s fan club had gotten out of hand. For a third string running back, it was startling to see that his ADP (average draft position) had risen to and even cracked the top-100, depending on which site you looked at. I just couldn’t fathom it. Why was everyone so sure that he would take the league by storm when he was coming off of multiple injuries and wasn’t even the best back on his own college team. Most importantly, why were people so sure that he would walk into camp and take the starting running back job from Carlos Hyde ?
The unsung signing of the Browns offseason this winter was the addition of running back Carlos Hyde . On June 26th I published my “Fantasy Football Divisional Preview: AFC North” which outlined fantasy expectations from each team in that division. When I got to the Browns and their fantasy team MVP, I chose Hyde…
“I’ll probably catch a lot of heat for my takes in this section because it appears that I am A) one of the few believers in Carlos Hyde and B) one of the few willing to throw some cold water on the inferno that is the Nick Chubb hype train… Let me dish out some facts here… on a bad 49ers team and running behind a bad 49ers line last season, Hyde still managed to finish eighth amongst fantasy running backs in total points, including the fourth most rushing touchdowns, the eighth most receptions, and the 13th most rushing yards. This was all accomplished under a coaching staff that seemed intent on irrationally limiting his workload early on in the season – as an undisclosed punishment mind you… Joining an underrated Browns roster behind one of the more improved offensive lines in the game, there is a chance that he could have his best statistical season yet… To be completely honest, even with the presence of Duke Johnson – a true PPR monster – and Nick Chubb – everyone’s favorite “sleeper” running back – my money is still on Hyde to be the go-to player in this emerging Browns offense.”
Looking at it now, what I said back in late June doesn’t seem like that much of a hot take, but you have to understand that back then both Hyde and Chubb were only a handful of spots apart in their ADP. Flash forward to today and as it stands, Carlos Hyde is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns with four, is inside the top-10 in terms of fantasy scoring at the running back position, and is averaging 22 touches per game. Nick Chubb has seven total touches on the season.
Most fantasy forecasters like to pretend that “I told you so” is beneath them, but in reality, we all love it. Here’s my soap box, here’s me sticking my tongue out… I told you so!
Oh, also, I might as well mention that also within that same article was me predicting that Baker Mayfield would replace TyRod Taylor a month into the season. Here we are, Week 4 (four weeks in a month) and Baker is making his first career start.
Now this may seem very narcissistic and self centered of me to focus this much of an article on me being right, but you have to understand that this intro piece is a necessary ego boost and fortified defense mechanism for what you are about to read below...
NostraDomUs Boldly Predicts
Each week – whether through a DFS or a season-long lens – your beloved prophet, NostraDomUs, will offer a few predictions for the week to come at the running back position. In each following edition, we will reflect upon the previous predictions and keep a running tally across the season, termed “prophetic percentage.” Now without further ado… I give you NostraDomUs!
How’d we do last week?
Prediction #1:Corey Clement repeats as a top-10 scorer for Week 3, despite being priced as the 48th most valuable back on DraftKings ($4,300). Wrong
Prediction #2: Sony Michel cracks the top-10 scorers this week, despite barely being ranked as a top-100 scorer so far this season. Wrong
Prediction #3: Kareem Hunt gets back on track this week and scores 20+ fantasy points for the first time this season. Wrong
Okay, so Week 3 wasn’t so hot in the bold predictions department, but this is a new segment and I’m still admittedly working out the kinks. Now you can probably understand why I needed to wax poetic about how I was right about Carlos Hyde and everyone else was wrong… As for the Week 3 predictions themselves, they weren’t actually all that bad, but just a bit lofty in terms of elite expectations. For example, Kareem Hunt certainly got back on track, however he didn’t get to 20 fantasy points. His two early game touchdowns however made my point. Sony Michel didn’t finish as a top-10 scorer and neither did Corey Clement , but unexpected game script had a lot to do with that. The Pats went down rather early (something no one predicted) and the Eagles struggled all day to put the Colts away. It also didn’t help that Wendell Smallwood saw the same amount of touches as Clement, souring Clement’s chances of fulfilling my predictive expectation. C'est la vie I suppose though, right? The good news is that I’m ready to knock the bold predictions outta the park this week, so pay attention to the PSA below…
Season-Long Prophetic Percentage: (16%)
Right: 1
Wrong: 5
WEEK 4 BOLD PREDICTIONS
Prediction #1: Isaiah Crowell has started and seen double-digit carries in each game so far this season. This week that will not happen.
The thought process here is that not only are the Jets playing the Jags – one of the league’s best defenses – so it will be tough sledding on the ground anyway, but Crowell is also coming off of a week in which he celebrated by wiping his butt with the football. If Todd Bowles had any spine, there would be a bit of discipline coming Crowell’s way. As of now, nothing has been announced, but for those looking at him in fantasy this week, stay away.
Prediction #2: Aaron Jones emerges as the Packers lead back by racking up over 80 rushing yards and by getting into the end zone at least once.
Last season Aaron Jones was second in the league in yards per carry (min. 80 carries) and despite his typical ranking behind Jamaal Williams on the Packers depth chart, most people in Green Bay believe that he is the most talented back on the roster. He proved that last week on just six carries, as he racked up 42 yards, good enough for a whopping 7.0 yards per carry. Now back from a suspension, it won’t be long before Jones is the Packers lead dog. I expect it to occur this week against a Bills team that is sure to come back down to earth on the road.
-- If you like what you read, feel free to follow me on twitter (@Nostra_Dom_Us) and make sure to tune in next Wednesday for the newest edition of “The Running Back Workloads.” --