I’m worried about Madison Bumgarner . Put it on the record. I’m worried. He did log 207.2 innings pitched last year, which is good, but other than that, it wasn’t a great year for Bumgarner. The veteran southpaw went 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. It might be better than you think, but batters are starting to hit him more and more, and while it’s encouraging that his strikeout rate jumped back up in 2019, he’s not going to be the 9.50 K/9 guy he was in 2015 and 2016. He’s right around his career average, so that’s something, but drafting Bumgarner for strikeouts is more a product of him being able to accrue them over time, as opposed to racking them up in bunches. Bumgarner will move to a new stadium, one that is better suited for hitters, so that’s not a great thing for a guy who has posted a HR/9 mark north of 1.30 two times in the past three years.
There are some subtle things and some no to subtle things about Bumgarner that leave me worried moving into 2020. For the most part, he out-produces his FIP and xFIP, but since these numbers have started to increase back in 2016, this was the first season he was close to those marks.
| ERA | FIP | XFIP |
2016 | 2.74 | 3.24 | 3.54 |
2017 | 3.32 | 3.95 | 4.07 |
2018 | 3.26 | 3.99 | 4.32 |
2019 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 4.31 |
Courtesy of FanGraphs
Additionally, it’s been a slow but rather consistent decline in his ground ball rate, and outside of his 2018 season, a slow and steady rise in his fly ball rate. For the most part, his HR/FB ratio has stayed consistent. Take a look at the graph below, and you’ll see how these factors don’t exactly line up for the long haul.
With hard contact increasing against Bumgarner, and the fact that he’s trading ground balls for fly balls don’t parlay into long term success, or at least a HR/FB ratio remains relatively similar for the past couple seasons. It doesn’t add up, and with a new home park, he’s going to get exposed right now. Take a look at his numbers since the start of the 2016 season at home versus the road.
| HR/9 | BABIP | FB% | HR/FB | Hard Contact % |
Home | 0.80 | .254 | 37.7% | 9.3% | 37.3% |
Away | 1.50 | .298 | 42.5% | 13.7% | 38.7% |
Courtesy of FanGraphs
Furthermore, it doesn’t get any more positive if we shorten the timeframe to the start of the 2018 season.
| HR/9 | BABIP | FB% | HR/FB | Hard Contact % |
Home | 0.90 | .210 | 36.1% | 9.8% | 40.8% |
Away | 1.60 | .320 | 42.0% | 13.5% | 45.3% |
Courtesy of FanGraphs
Long story short: He’s in for a rude awakening away from San Francisco. Last year, Oracle Park was ranked 30th (out of 30) in home run park factor, while Chase Field came in at 20th.
Additionally, his fastball generated more whiffs last year than prior seasons, which his good, but his fastball posted a fly ball rate nearly nine percentage points higher than his career average. Opponents are lofting this pitch more and more, and also doing more damage. The 2019 edition of Bumgarner’s fastball generated career-highs in launch angle and exit velocity, and that doesn’t bode well moving away from the game’s best pitchers park (in terms of home runs). Yikes.
If there’s anything Bumgarner has left, it’s still a decent curveball, even though that is losing momentum by the year. Take a look at the pitch’s movement, courtesy of Baseball Savant, in terms of percentage break vs the average.
His vertical movement is declining, while the horizontal movement skyrocketed after 2017 and 2018. It almost feels like his curveball is becoming more “slurvy,” with more of a slide or sweep.
Before wrapping up, let me leave you with a couple final thoughts.
- His barrel rate has increased every year since 2015.
- His average exit velocity has increased or remained the same since 2015.
- Since the start of 2017, his 40.9 percent hard contact rate is third-highest in baseball among qualified starters.
- Since the start of 2018, his 42.9 percent hard contact rate is second-highest in baseball among qualified starters.
Bumgarner’s average draft position (ADP), courtesy of NFBC data, of 125.11 may look enticing, but I caution you to avoid at that price. It’s a trap. If you still want to be in on Bumgarner in 2020, I recommend, clicking the refresh button of your browser, and starting from the top. There are too many glaring problems about Bumgarner and his decline and it’s well-documented. Sure, he’ll get more run support pitching for a better Arizona lineup, but he’ll need that. His name is worth far greater than his actual value in 2020, and he’s better suited to drag down someone else’s fantasy rotation.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball