2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Will Smith

It seems like another season where the catcher position in fantasy baseball is headlined by a few guys, and then after that, you’re looking at older veterans who are past their prime, or these youngsters with power potential but batting average concerns. Well, Los Angeles’ Will Smith certainly fits the bill of a youngster (24 years young) with power potential. In 54 games last year, he hit 15 home runs, and he had 20 round trippers in just 62 games at Triple-A before getting the call to the show. His .253//.337/.571 slash line was solid, but many, including myself, aren’t quite sold on Smith being a .250 hitter again in a more prominent role in 2020. However, the power is legit, the lineup is legit, and at a barren wasteland of a position, his upside is worth waiting to grab after the top catchers are off the board.

Of catchers with at least 190 plate appearances last season, take a look at some of his ranks.

Courtesy of FanGraphs

Smith also had the highest launch angle amongst catchers, coming in at a whopping 23.7 degrees, and his barrel rate per plate appearances was on right on bar with Yasmani Grandal and actually higher than J.T. Realmuto . His exit velocity on fly balls and line drives isn’t quite where you want it, but when you hit enough fly balls, good things will happen, as seen by his numbers from last year.

Will his power production repeat itself this year? Not quite to the extent we saw last year, meaning if he plays in 108 games this season, his power numbers won’t double essentially. His 23.1 HR/FB rate is rather high, and that number will come down, however, the trade-off here is that he’ll play in more games, get more at-bats and such, so that can mitigate the expected drop. He’ll certainly get more at-bats this year, so even if his power peripherals drop a bit, he’ll simply have more time to accrue the counting stats, giving him a great shot for 20, maybe even 25+ home runs this season.

He’ll get more at-bats because he’s expected to serve as the team’s primary catcher. Fortunately for Smith, while he struggled against southpaws last year, to the tune of a .211 average, backup Austin Barnes is just a .235 career hitter against lefties. That bodes well for Smith to at least get the opportunity in the beginning of the year to prove that he can handle it, and if that’s the case, Smith could be a steal at his current average draft position (ADP).

The thing that’s going to worry fantasy owners about Smith this year is what kind of a hitter will he be average wise. His 9.2 percent walk rate and 24.9 percent O-Swing rate show that he understands the zone and has good plate discipline, but with more tape on him, will pitchers continue to find ways to expose him? As the year went on, you can see a steady decline in his hard hit rate, expected batting average, and expected wOBA.

Fortunately, if you are an optimist, you will notice the upticks at the end of the rolling charts, courtesy of Baseball Savant, so he was climbing back, which is positive.

Speaking of xBA, while he hit .253 last year, and displayed impressive hard contact rates and launch angle, his expected batting average was only in the mid-.220s. I mentioned his average exit velocity being average on fly balls and line drives, but let’s quantify it. Of catchers with at least 100 batted ball events last year, per Baseball Savant, Smith’s average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives was 31^st out 56 eligible catchers. His average exit velocity on ground balls was 17^th out 56, so that helped him overall.

So, what exactly do we make of Smith here in 2020? Well, we already slotted him in the catcher demographic of “young power hitter with batting average concerns,” and I believe that’s exactly what he is here in 2020. Playing time is in his favor, because even if Barnes does take away some at-bats against southpaws, Smith is still on the strong side of said platoon. Furthermore, he’s going to be a 20+ home run guy, but with some good luck and distracted pitchers focusing on the other bigger names in Los Angeles’ lineup, perhaps he can surpass 25 this year.

Per Steamer’s projections, Smith is one of just six catchers projected to hit 20 home runs this season, and he’s the only one to do so with a projected total of 100 or fewer games played. The power production is real, but that batting average is going to come down a good bit in 2020.  Smith is currently the sixth catcher of the board, but he’s coming about 100 picks after Realmuto and about 60 picks after Gary Sánchez . Playing time should be fine, but he likely won’t be a workhorse like a Reaulmuto or Sanchez, and he doesn’t have the luxury of getting pseudo days off like Sanchez does, when he can just serve as the team’s designated hitter.

All in all, Smith is a top-10 catcher in fantasy baseball this year, as he should prove to be a positive asset in terms of home runs and RBI from the position, and if he is able to cut down on strike outs and hit for a higher than .225 average, hitting near the bottom of the order should boost his run numbers, considering that Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger will be up shortly thereafter when the lineup turns over.

If you miss on one of the top three catchers (Realmuto, Sanchez, Grandal), Smith is one of my preferred selections inside that next grouping of backstops.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Steamer  Projections