2018 MLB ADP Trends and Analysis

As we enter the back half of February, drafts are heating up, players are finally signing with their new clubs for the 2018 season and us fantasy owners are seeing a clearer picture on the draft capital each player is likely going to cost. Sure, we all know Mike Trout is a top pick, with Jose Altuve likely following him in the two spot. However, after that, each draft has its own destiny that causes a ripple effect in the way that each draft plays out. In Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army (MDA), we’ve seen drastic selection differences in each draft. Trea Turner has been selected as high as fourth overall, but has fallen as far as pick number 18. New York slugger Aaron Judge has seen his name come off the board as early as 10^th overall, but in other drafts, he’s been in the metaphorical green room outside the top 25 players.

Of course, the rules of your league or host site could sway how the draft runs, but there are obvious trends that can be discussed. Using average draft position (ADP) isn’t the determining factor in a selection, meaning if you truly believe that Turner will provide more bang for your buck than Charlie Blackmon or Bryce Harper this season, then go ahead and take Turner fifth overall, regardless of what the current ADP says.

Based on some recent mocks, here are some prevalent trends to analyze.

Pitching in NFBC > Pitching in MDA

With the no trading laws in the NFBC, starting pitching tends to come off the board much sooner compared to the Mock Draft Army. Here are the top 12 starting pitchers (per the Mock Draft Army) and their ADP in each of the aforementioned drafts.

As you can see above, the big four (Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber and Sale) are typically off the board within the first 14 picks in NFBC drafts, compared to 20 picks in the Mock Draft Army. Other pitchers are pretty similar (Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Severino, Ray), however, there is some discrepancies on the value of guys like Strasburg, deGrom and Carrasco.

On a per-inning basis, Strasburg can be elite, as evidenced by his career 10.5 K/9. However, injury concerns and the fact that the dynamic righty hasn’t made 30+ starts since 2014 gives owners pause. Injury concerns with Carrasco likely gives some owners concerns, but his cost is higher in the NFBC, likely due to the format, where pitchers are much more important to secure in the draft. Ray has the ninth-highest ADP of starters in the Mock Draft Army, but he’s the 14^th starter off the board in NFBC.

Here are some overall numbers to consider in terms of ADP.

Despite what seems to be an abundance of pitchers going in NFBC drafts, the overall numbers aren’t too far off from one another. The NFBC surely values the top tier of guys more than the Mock Draft Army, but as February 18, NFBC drafts on average see three more starters go in the top 150 than Mock Draft Army drafts.

However, the discrepancy with relievers is rather noticeable.

The average pick difference between the closers above is 24.84 picks. That’s TWO full rounds in a 12-team format, and over one-and-a-half rounds in a 15-team setting. Every year, the strategy surrounding closers is crazy. Some teams will grab Jansen and then wait a while, but others seem content with grabbing two or three guys outside of the top 12 and hope for the best. Saves will pop up throughout the season, but again, no trading in the NFBC makes acquiring closers tough.

The overall discrepancy between the valuation of starters between the Mock Draft Army and NFBC wasn’t too stark, but when we add relievers in the picture, we see the variance.

Especially in the first 150 picks of drafts, on average, we see a rather noticeable difference in the mindset of selecting pitchers.

MDA: “Anthony Rendon!” –  NFBC: “Anthony Who?”

After a tremendous 2014 campaign, Rendon struggled mightily in 2015, frustrating many fantasy owners. With much reluctance heading into 2016, Rendon swatted 20 homers and stole 12 bags, regaining some trust from fantasy owners. He took his game to another level in 2017, where he hit a career-high 25 home runs, stole seven bases, drove in 100 runs, and slashed an excellent .301/.403/.533. Furthermore, his BABIP wasn’t far from his career mark, showing that he wasn’t benefiting from extremely good luck, and he trended positive in terms of walk rate and strikeout rate. He’ll turn 28 years old in June of this year, placing him right in the prime of his career. With an excellent supporting cast yet again in Washington, Rendon is in line for another great season with the opportunity of besting some of his 2017 numbers.

In the Mock Draft Army drafts to date, Rendon has an average ADP of 39.91, with an earliest selection of 22 and the latest of 47. In a 15-team league, based off his current ADP, Rendon would be pick 3.9. However, in the NFBC, Rendon’s ADP of 58.03 would place him at pick 4.13 in the same 15-team format.

He continues to spread the ball to all parts of the field and he managed to make soft contact less than 14 percent of the time for the third straight season. A healthy return of Adam Eaton at the top of the Washington order will provide another table setter for the Washington offense, so even though Rendon will likely slot behind both Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, his floor in the RBI department has shown to be rather high (80+ in three of last four years). Rendon has taken another step forward in terms of plate discipline and it’s rather surprising to see the discrepancy between the NFBC and Mock Draft Army on his 2018 value.