Unless you plan on using your first three draft picks on Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber and Stephen Strasburg, you’re going to want to look at some starters outside of the top 30 in current average draft position (ADP). These are the guys that could perform as a low-end SP1 or quality SP2, without having to be drafted as such. That is the type of value that we are going to target in our fantasy drafts this season.

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Luke Weaver, SP STL

Weaver’s ERA of 3.88 wasn’t anything to tell the town about, and neither was his 1.26 WHIP. However, his K/9 was nearly 11 and had a nice 7-2 record. However, again, don’t buy into win-loss records because they are a product of the pitcher’s offense and defense as much as it is the pitcher’s performance. His FIP was 3.17, which was well below his ERA, signifying that his ERA was not indicative of the success he had on the mound. He kept the home runs to a minimum, and he even dropped his walk rate a bit from his 36.1 innings back in 2016.

Furthermore, when he wasn’t striking out batters, he was generating ground balls at a great rate, while minimizing hard contact. Weaver has all the makings of a fantasy stud and while he likely won’t receive a full allotment of innings in 2018, his production on a per-inning basis will be among some of the league’s best. He’s currently being drafted outside of the top 30 pitchers, and he could easily end the season inside the top 20 starters. Yes, not having a full workload could make that tough, but there is plenty of room for optimism in the 24-year-old righty with quality stuff.

Jameson Taillon, SP PIT

To return from what he did, it’s quite remarkable. There is some bias here, but Taillon will likely find his way onto every fantasy team of mine. Taillon only threw 133.2 innings last season, mustering a measly 8-7 record with a 3.10 BB/9 and a 4.44 ERA. If the rest of your league wants to buy in a grueling 2017 season, let them, because really some bad luck and misfortunes did him in.

His walk rate went up, but he had a full batter jump in his K/9. His ERA shot up to 4.44, but his FIP was nearly a full run lower (3.48) and he dropped his HR/9 from 1.13 in 2016 to 0.74 in 2017. Also, opponents’ BABIP of .352 was high, and that will surely regress closer to the mean in 2018. Furthermore, last season, he limited the opposition to less hard hit balls, while generating soft contact more often. Take a look at the numbers (courtesy of Fangraphs) from 2016 and 2017 for Taillon in terms of hit type.

Year

Soft%

Med%

Hard%

2016

17.3%

49.5%

33.2%

2017

22.1%

48.3%

29.6%


Without taking a closer look at the numbers, you will miss out on some excellent value to be had with the young right-hander in Pittsburgh. If the numbers even out, which I believe they will, while a maintaining a quality K/9, he’s going to end the year as a SP2.

Mike Clevinger, SP CLE

The value on Clevinger right now is crazy good. He could shoot up a couple rounds moving forward and I’d still be comfortable drafting this guy. 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP is solid, and is 137 strikeouts in 121.2 innings. Sure, the walks are a little high (4.4 BB/9) but he did see slight improvement from the year before (4.9 BB/9), while increasing his strikeouts by over a batter-and-a-half per inning. In double the innings, he dropped his H/9 and looked very good on the mound. His FIP (3.85) was well-above his ERA, which isn’t always ideal, but the two will be closer this season.

Recency bias could play a role in this, but how can you ignore it? In seven September appearances (four starts), he went 5-1 with a 0.99 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 27.1 innings of work. His postseason outing may not have been great, but that September was exceptional and while it may not be in the minds of many, it’s fresh in mine.

The knock on Clevinger heading into the season is that he’s not guaranteed a roster spot, but even if he doesn’t open the year in rotation, there’s a lot going for the 27-year-old righty. Even in a high-volume reliever role, his swing-and-miss stuff will help fantasy owners’ ratio in the short term. His fantasy value will peak when he enters the rotation, which is only a few dominant appearances or a Danny Salazar injury/trade away.

Again, at his price, you’d be foolish not to draft him.