The second year of Jonathan Smith's leadership in East Lansing begins this Friday night, as the Michigan State Spartans take on the Western Michigan Broncos at Spartan Stadium.

Oddsmakers have made Michigan State a substantial three-touchdown favorite, yet the real betting opportunities surrounding the best Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. picks might be found elsewhere.

Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. Predictions for College Football Week 1, Friday, 8/29

Michigan State is looking forward to this season, hoping to put behind them the memories of a disappointing 5-7 record in 2024, a year where their offense struggled and their bowl aspirations faded away. Quarterback Aidan Chiles is back with high expectations, and the Spartans aim to demonstrate improved offensive flow under Smith’s guidance.

On the other hand, Western Michigan is working to bounce back after a 6-7 finish last year, which included a significant bowl defeat against South Alabama. Head coach Lance Taylor has his players giving their all, but this Broncos team is expected to be near the bottom of the MAC standings. What’s this all mean for our Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. predictions?

 

 

 

Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. Best Bet: 1H Total Under 26.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Michigan State is expected to manage this matchup with ease, but that doesn’t imply that points will come pouring in — particularly at the start. The first half under presents the most attractive betting option here when making Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. picks, due to the offensive limitations of both teams and Michigan State’s habit of starting slowly.

The Spartans bring back Aidan Chiles as their quarterback, a promising dual-threat player who showed potential last year but struggled with turnovers (11 interceptions, 4 fumbles). Chiles possesses the arm strength to stretch the field, but with a restructured offensive line — featuring only one returning starter — the passing game may require some time to find its rhythm.

Smith’s offense emphasizes balance, but developing a running game with Elijah Tau-Tolliver and Jace Clarizio could be a gradual process against a Western Michigan defense that, while physically outmatched, will likely stack the box early to force Chiles into clear passing situations.

Considering Michigan State averaged fewer than 20 points per game in 2024, anticipating an explosive start is a gamble. The Spartans have the better athletes and depth, but it might take a quarter or two before they start to pull away on the scoreboard.

The Broncos’ primary challenge is achieving consistent offensive output. They ended last year with a 6-7 record but faced significant struggles against competent defenses, averaging only 16 points per game in their last five games.

Even with offensive coordinator Walt Bell back, this unit lacks explosiveness at both quarterback and wide receiver. Western Michigan heavily depends on establishing the run, but Michigan State’s defense — despite some personnel changes — remains strong against the run. When facing a Big Ten defense on the road, it’s difficult to picture the Broncos moving the ball consistently, especially in the first half before the game unfolds.

Michigan State has struggled to cover the spread in five consecutive games, primarily due to slow starts on offense. Western Michigan has been behind at halftime in 19 of its last 20 matchups against Big Ten teams.

The Spartans hold an 8-1 record in their last nine home games against non-conference opponents, but these victories typically rely more on their defense than on high-scoring affairs. Both teams tend to trend towards the under in non-conference games, with Michigan State’s offensive struggles contributing to lower total scores.

Anticipate Michigan State’s defense to take control of field position early on, forcing Western Michigan into shorter possessions. However, the Spartans’ offense is not expected to quickly take charge of the game, considering their offensive line issues and Chiles needing time to find his rhythm.

By halftime, a score of around 14-3 or 17-6 seems plausible — keeping the first-half total well below 26.5, making that our best bet for Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. predictions.

 

 

 

How To Watch Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. College Football Week 1

  • Date: Friday, August 29, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Spartan Stadium — East Lansing, MI
  • TV Broadcast: FS1

Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Make sure to review the latest Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. odds from FanDuel Sportsbook before you finalize any Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. predictions regarding the game:

  • Money Line (ML): Broncos +920 | Spartans -1800
  • Spread: Broncos +20.5 (-104) | Spartans -20.5 (-118)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

 

 

 

Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. Injury Report & Latest News

Western Michigan Injury Report

  • None

Michigan State Injury Report

  • None

 

 

 

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