LSU and Houston conclude their seasons with an intriguing matchup in the Texas Bowl. Although the Tigers’ reputation still holds significance, this encounter is notably different from its appearance on paper – at least according to our LSU vs. #21 Houston predictions. 

Houston comes in with momentum, stability, and a strong desire to succeed, whereas LSU arrives depleted, injured, and already focused on the upcoming Lane Kiffin era. Given that the game is hosted in Houston and the Cougars possess a more complete roster, this bowl presents one of the most discreet betting opportunities of the postseason.

LSU vs. #21 Houston Predictions for the Texas Bowl, Saturday, 12/27

This Texas Bowl contest showcases two programs moving in contrasting emotional directions. Houston is relishing a breakthrough season, returning to bowl prominence and seeking to affirm its positive trajectory. Conversely, LSU is undergoing a transition — with a new head coach on the horizon, an interim staff overseeing bowl preparations, and a roster significantly impacted by opt-outs, injuries, and player departures to the transfer portal.

Oddsmakers have designated Houston as a slight favorite, and this line reflects more than mere on-field performance. Factors such as motivation, roster availability, and quarterback stability all indicate a clear trend when making LSU vs. #21 Houston picks.

 

 

 

LSU vs. #21 Houston Spread Pick: Cougars -2.5 (-108 at Novig)

If LSU were at full strength, it’s possible they’d be the favorites in this matchup. However, bowl season is seldom determined by the names on the helmets — it’s about which team truly shows up to play. In this instance, Houston fulfills significantly more criteria than the Tigers.

To begin with, consider the availability of players. LSU will be without quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, which means that Michael Van Buren Jr. will make his fourth consecutive start. While Van Buren possesses mobility, the effectiveness of the passing game has evidently declined, and LSU has not managed to score more than 25 points against any FBS opponent throughout the entire season. 

Furthermore, LSU's receiving corps is critically undermined, with Nic Anderson and Aaron Anderson both unavailable, alongside several other wide receivers who are either injured or have chosen to opt out.

On the defensive side, the issues are even more severe. Cornerback Mansoor Delane — a potential first-round pick in the NFL Draft — has opted out of the game. Linebacker Harold Perkins is also unavailable, as is Whit Weeks. 

This results in the absence of elite talent at every level of the defense. In a bowl game where preparation time is limited and team cohesion is essential, the loss of multiple defensive leaders is particularly detrimental.

In contrast, Houston remains remarkably intact. Quarterback Conner Weigman is participating — and not only participating, but is fully committed to concluding the season on a high note before returning in 2026. 

He provides the Cougars with a significant advantage at the most crucial position on the field. Given that LSU's secondary is missing its top cover corner and is facing a simplified defensive scheme under interim coaching, Weigman should be able to advance the ball consistently.

Another crucial aspect is the location and motivation. This matchup takes place in Houston, not Baton Rouge. To add on to that, LSU has already begun to shift its focus towards the Lane Kiffin era. Players are now auditioning for future positions rather than committing to a cohesive game strategy.

Additionally, there is the psychological factor to consider. LSU faces no pressure in this situation — which is not always advantageous. Bowl games frequently favor teams that exhibit a greater level of care, and Houston evidently does.

Even if LSU’s defense manages to keep the score close in the early stages, depth will become a concern as the game progresses. Houston’s capacity to manage field position, minimize errors, and take advantage of short fields should be sufficient to sway a low-scoring contest in their favor.

Taking all of this into account, Houston doesn’t need to be dominant. They simply need to be the more polished, comprehensive team — and at this moment, our LSU vs. #21 Houston predictions believe that they are.

 

 

 

How To Watch LSU vs. #21 Houston - Texas Bowl

  • Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
  • Kickoff: 9:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

LSU vs. #21 Houston Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Novig has unveiled the most recent LSU vs. #21 Houston odds for the matchup, which is set to take place on Saturday night. This announcement comes in the wake of our earlier LSU vs. #21 Houston predictions:

  • Money Line (ML): Tigers +122 | Cougars -128
  • Spread: Tigers +2.5 (-105) | Cougars -2.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -113 | U: -105)

 

 

 

LSU vs. #21 Houston Injury Report & Latest News

LSU Injury Report

  • M. Delane (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
  • A. Anderson (WR) – Doubtful, Undisclosed
  • G. Nussmeier (QB) – Out, Undisclosed
  • O. Williams (OT) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • B. Moore (OG) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • N. Anderson (WR) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • G. Reliford (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • J. Lindsey (RB) – Out, Suspension

Houston Injury Report

  • J. Ridgle (RB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • H. Hautau (OG) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • K. Laufau (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • Z. Cormier (WR) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • Q. Lee (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • K. West (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • R. Sterling (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • D. Williams (WR) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • S. Johnson (WR) – Out, Undisclosed
  • D. Ndukwe (OG) – Out, Leg
  • R. Sanford II (RB) – Out, Undisclosed

 

 

 

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