Friday nights in Charlottesville tend to generate excitement, and this Week 5 contest appears to be a potential thriller. This makes for a perfect time to introduce our #8 Florida St. vs. Virginia predictions! The No. 8 Florida State Seminoles arrive undefeated, still high off their season-defining victory against Alabama in Week 1.

On the other hand, Virginia has quietly recovered after an earlier defeat to NC State and now seems poised to exceed expectations. While the Seminoles are the favorites, the Cavaliers shouldn’t be underestimated — particularly at home, under the stadium lights, with a vibrant crowd supporting them.

#8 Florida St. vs. Virginia Predictions for College Football Week 5, Friday, 9/26

This matchup has all the hallmarks of a possible upset, and it’s something our #8 Florida St. vs. Virginia picks have taken note of.

Florida State’s season began with a bang, surprising Alabama and alerting the nation. However, since that moment, the Seminoles have taken advantage of weaker opponents — Texas A&M-Commerce and Kent State — who posed no significant challenge. 

The first genuine test since that initial game is now upon them: a road matchup in conference play against a Virginia team that possesses both momentum and balance.

 

 

 

#8 Florida St. vs. Virginia Spread Pick: Cavaliers +7 (-115 at Novig)

Virginia has a number of potential advantages in this contest. To start, Chandler Morris is establishing himself as QB1. Since his transfer, Morris has introduced both stability and explosiveness to the Cavaliers’ passing game.

He recently delivered an impressive performance with 380 yards and four touchdowns against Stanford. With Florida State ranked only 52nd in EPA per dropback, Morris is likely to advance the ball effectively, particularly if he makes early connections to loosen the defense.

Plus, J’Mari Taylor provides balance to the offense. While Florida State’s defense effectively contained Alabama’s rushing game in Week 1, Virginia presents a different type of challenge. 

Taylor has emerged as one of the ACC’s most productive running backs thus far, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and consistently reaching the end zone. If Morris can compel FSU’s safeties to respect the deep pass, Taylor may thrive against lighter defensive fronts.

We can’t forget about the Cavaliers' defense, which seems to be getting overlooked. Virginia may lack the star power of Florida State; however, their defensive unit has shown discipline against the run, ranking 36th in opponent EPA/rush and 49th in defensive success rate. 

This is significant when facing a Seminoles offense that runs the ball more often than nearly any other team in the nation. If the Cavaliers can force Florida State into third-and-long situations, their defense stands a genuine chance to halt drives.

It’s also possible that Florida State may be distracted by upcoming matchups. Following their visit to Charlottesville, the Seminoles are set to clash with a highly-touted Miami squad. This impending rivalry match presents an ideal “look-ahead” scenario, allowing Virginia the opportunity to catch them off guard.

Finally, the Cavaliers’ advantage of playing at home has to be a factor. Scott Stadium may not boast the same acclaim as Death Valley or the Swamp, yet Virginia tends to perform rather well at home.

They have consistently outperformed weaker opponents there, and even though Florida State is undoubtedly the superior team on paper, the combination of the road atmosphere and the energy of a Friday night game can diminish that advantage.

When considering all these factors, the +7 line at Novig appears enticing. Florida State certainly has the potential to win — their defense remains formidable, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos poses a significant dual threat — but this spread seems too narrow for a road favorite in a challenging situation.

Virginia possesses the capability to remain competitive and could very well achieve an outright upset, so our #8 Florida St. vs. Virginia predictions will side with the Cavaliers.

 

 

 

How To Watch #8 Florida St. vs. Virginia College Football Week 5

  • Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
  • TV: ESPN

#8 Florida St. vs. Virginia Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

In line with our earlier #8 Florida St. vs. Virginia predictions, we now provide the latest #8 Florida St. vs. Virginia odds for the game from Novig:

  • Money Line (ML): Seminoles -260 | Cavaliers +210
  • Spread: Seminoles -7 (-105) | Cavaliers +7 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 60 (O: -110 | U: -110)

 

 

 

#8 Florida St. vs. Virginia Injury Report & Latest News

Florida State Injury Report

  • C. Holmes (RB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • S. White (WR) – Questionable, Wrist
  • R. Pittman Jr. (TE) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • R. Williams (RB) – Out, Undisclosed
  • E. Pritchard (LB) – Out, Undisclosed

Virginia Injury Report

  • D. Wohlabaugh Jr. (OG) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • T. Ward (WR) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • D. Walker (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • N. Vaughn (RB) – Questionable, Ankle
  • W. Unamba (OG) – Questionable, Knee
  • E. Sipe (OG) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • T. Simmons (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • T. Ladd (WR) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • T. Jones (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • A. Jones (S) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • G. Brosterhous (QB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • J. Morris (CB) – Out, Knee
  • M. Thomas (OG) – Out, Foot
  • M. Mills (OG) – Out, Knee

 

 

 

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