The 2026-27 college football season rolls on with a mini Friday night slate of games on tap! It’s time to lock in our CFB best bets today before the action gets underway. Check out these CFB picks for Friday’s college football Week 5 slate. Without further ado, let’s jump into this week’s top CFB predictions.

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Friday, 10/2

Our CFB best bets today start with Liberty taking on Delaware in a Conference USA matchup. Plus,  Northwestern hosts Penn State in a Friday night Big Ten clash. Check out more CFB picks below for the rest of today’s action. Good luck!  

 

 

 

Liberty vs. Delaware Prediction: Friday, October 2nd

Liberty is 3-1 this season and enters Friday night’s matchup as a 6.5-point road favorite against Delaware. The Flames hold significant advantages on both sides of the ball to not only win, but also cover the spread. Let’s break it down. 

Liberty’s offense ranks 19th nationally in both EPA/Play and success rate. The Flames boast an efficient, punishing rushing attack led by power-conference transfers Kam Davis (Florida State) and Peyton Jones (Duke). The passing game has also been very productive, ranking 9th in the country in EPA/Pass, with Wake Forest transfer quarterback Deshawn Purdie. 

Meanwhile, Delaware’s defense was exposed in its two toughest matchups thus far. Virginia just gashed the Blue Hens for 556 total yards and 42 points last week. Plus, the defense gave up 35 points to Vanderbilt earlier this year. Delaware will have trouble stopping Liberty in this matchup, as the defense ranks 101st nationally in adjusted EPA/Play and 81st in success rate. 

On the other side, Liberty brings in a defense that ranks 26th nationally in success rate this season. The unit has been especially strong against the pass, which could be a major problem for Delaware to hang around and keep it close. Blue Hens QB Nick Minicucci is expected to be out after getting hurt last week. Without him, Delaware managed only 3 points vs. Virginia. 

Delaware’s offense also ranks 113th in EPA/Play and 127th in success rate this year. If Minicucci is out, as presumed, then the attack will struggle to move the ball and put together productive drives. 

Liberty is the side to back here. Its only loss thus far came by 7 points on the road at James Madison in the season opener, which is very respectable against one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country. Delaware, meanwhile, notably struggled against some of the better C-USA teams last year. That includes a 59-30 loss to Liberty in which the Flames gained a whopping 561 total yards. 

Penn State vs. Northwestern Prediction: Friday, October 2nd

This is an intriguing matchup between Penn State (3-1) and Northwestern (2-1) as both Big Ten teams are coming off losses. The Nittany Lions are slight road favorites, but the Huskies are very live to pull off the upset. Let’s avoid the spread and look at the total instead. 

Northwestern’s offense has looked dangerous this season. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has the attack humming, with quarterback Aidan Chiles playing efficiently. The Huskies rank 10th nationally in adjusted EPA/Play on offense and 15th in passing success rate. The advanced metrics love this offense, and for good reason. 

The Huskies made things interesting against Indiana last week largely due to their offense. Chiles threw for 293 yards and 2 TDs on a 75% completion rate, as Northwestern scored 23 points with multiple fourth-quarter scoring drives. That was against a top-tier IU defense, no less. The Huskies also put up 41 and 34 points in their two previous games against Colorado and South Dakota State, respectively. 

On paper, Penn State’s defense is among the best in the country. However, many of the stats are skewed by easy opponents in the first three games. When the Nittany Lions faced Wisconsin last week, they allowed 355 total yards of offense and gave up two touchdowns in the final 5 minutes. Until we see PSU show up on defense against a quality opponent, it’s worth fading. 

Meanwhile, the Northwestern defense has question marks of its own. The Huskies struggled to stop Indiana last week, allowing 472 total yards. The Hoosiers also should’ve scored more than 29 points, but they turned it over on downs at the 1-yard line and settled for a field goal near the red zone. 

Penn State has the offensive firepower to exploit some of Northwestern’s defensive issues. The Nittany Lions’ run game, especially, should be plenty productive. The Huskies rank 111th nationally in defensive success rate vs. the run, and they just allowed 271 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per carry to Indiana. They’ve also struggled to stop opponents on third down. 

Grab the over on this Big Ten matchup as both offenses should move the ball successfully. Northwestern’s games are 3-0 to the over so far this year, as the market hasn’t fully adjusted for its offense. 

 

 

 

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