CFB Best Bets - Saturday, 9/12: Expert Picks, Predictions & Player Props
Week 2 of the college football season is packed with exciting matchups, especially among the Power Four programs, which provide a wide array of CFB predictions! After a surprisingly exciting opening week, this Saturday will help clarify which teams are true contenders and which performances might have been flukes.
Of the entire slate, two games in particular catch my eye: Duke is set to visit Illinois, and Mississippi State will take on Minnesota in an intriguing SEC versus Big Ten clash. Both teams come into these games with a 1-0 record, so, here are my top CFB best bets and CFB predictions for Saturday, September 12.
CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Saturday, 9/12
This Saturday's CFB best bets has me zeroing in on two specific games that present solid betting opportunities when looking for CFB picks. Illinois is favored by 5.5 points at home against Duke, and the game between Mississippi State and Minnesota is nearly even, with a total set at 54.5 points.
I’m leaning towards Illinois as my pick against Duke to start out my CFB best bets, while I also see massive value in betting on the total for the Mississippi State vs. Minnesota game.
Duke vs. Illinois Prediction: Saturday, September 12th
Illinois recently secured a 42-23 victory against UAB, and despite some defensive struggles, my CFB predictions believe the Illini have the edge in talent for this matchup. Duke, coming off a solid 9-5 season and an ACC Championship win, is a respectable opponent, but they’re lacking something important this season that they had in the last: one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
Darian Mensah was a key reason for Duke’s success in 2025, and finding a replacement for his level of performance is easier said than done. In their 2026 opener, Duke managed a 17-3 win over Tulane, but their offense was underwhelming, with Walker Eget completing only 13 of 26 passes for 131 yards.
Nate Sheppard stood out with 35 carries for 227 yards and two touchdowns, and the defense was impressive, limiting Tulane to just 54 rushing yards and no points in the first half. However, facing Illinois will be a much tougher challenge.
The Illini showcased their offensive potential in their opener against UAB, with Katin Houser impressing in his debut by completing 13 of 17 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown. Collin Dixon also stood out, catching six passes for 70 yards and scoring two touchdowns.
Overall, Illinois racked up 332 yards and averaged 7.7 yards per play, which boosts my confidence that they can effectively challenge Duke's defense. However, there are some red flags. Illinois' defense allowed 413 yards to UAB, with 219 of those through the air, and they struggled on third downs, giving up 10 out of 19 conversions.
If Sheppard can find consistent openings, it could keep the game close. Still, I doubt Duke can replicate their defensive success against Tulane when facing a stronger Illinois team. At the end of the day, I’m just not sure the Blue Devils can come into Champaign and keep the score within single digits.
The betting line started at Illinois -6.5 but has shifted slightly toward Duke, allowing us to take the Illini at -5.5. I’m more than happy to take that bet for today’s CFB best bets.
- Expert Duke vs. Illinois Pick: Fighting Illini -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mississippi St. vs. Minnesota Prediction: Saturday, September 12th
This portion of CFB picks is quite different from the other. Instead of choosing a side in what should be a close game, I'm going for the over in the matchup between Mississippi State and Minnesota. Both teams had impressive performances in Week 1.
Mississippi State crushed Louisiana-Monroe with a score of 62-13, racking up an astonishing 762 yards of offense. Meanwhile, Minnesota also dominated, defeating Eastern Illinois 59-7 and limiting the Panthers to just four first downs. However, Saturday's game will present a tougher test for both teams, which adds to the intrigue of this matchup.
The quarterbacks are a key factor in my expectation for a high-scoring game. Mississippi State's sophomore Kamario Taylor stands out as one of the most thrilling dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, he possesses the arm strength to challenge defenses deep while also being a significant threat on the ground.
Last season, he put his talent on display by throwing for 629 yards and five touchdowns, along with rushing for 458 yards and eight touchdowns. He kicked off 2026 by contributing five touchdowns against Louisiana-Monroe, making him a challenging player for any defense to handle.
Minnesota trots out Drake Lindsey under center, and he’s a true playmaker. After struggling with rushing consistency and finishing outside the national top 100 in the past two seasons, there were encouraging signs in their opener.
Darius Taylor impressed with 56 yards and three touchdowns on just 14 carries, while TJ Thomas contributed 52 yards on seven attempts. The key question remains whether Minnesota can effectively run against an SEC defense. If they can establish a solid ground game, it would open up opportunities for Lindsey to make plays in the passing game.
Mississippi State is likely to find ways to score, regardless of Minnesota's defensive efforts. Taylor's knack for making plays outside the pocket keeps drives alive, and his blend of rushing and passing skills poses a significant challenge for any defense. This matchup is intriguing, as Mississippi State prefers a fast-paced, aggressive style, while Minnesota leans towards a more physical approach.
While I don't anticipate another blowout like Mississippi State's 62-13 victory or Minnesota's 59-7 win, a score around 31-27 or 34-28 feels realistic. With two skilled quarterbacks and offenses that have already shown their scoring potential in Week 1, our CFB best bets feel like this matchup will be higher scoring.
- Expert Mississippi St. vs. Minnesota Pick: Over 54.5 (-118 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks: Saturday, 9/12
- Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan St.: Spartans Team Total O33.5 (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- #12 Alabama vs. Kentucky: Keelon Russell 53+ Rushing Yards (-117 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Monmouth vs. Western Michigan: Broncos -25.5 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- #1 Ohio St. vs. #4 Texas: Bo Jackson Anytime TD Scorer (+105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Arkansas vs. #20 Utah: Devon Dampier Anytime TD / Utah ML (+105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
