The college football season officially begins in Tampa with a matchup between the #25 Boise State Broncos and the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium!

Boise State, the current Mountain West champions and a Group of Five playoff contender, faces a USF team relying on the health of star quarterback Byrum Brown to ignite a comeback.

#25 Boise St. vs. USF Predictions for College Football Week 1, Thursday, 8/28

Oddsmakers favor the Broncos on the road, and it's easy to see why. Boise State comes in with stability at quarterback, a strong running back corps, and one of the most experienced offensive lines in the nation. On the other hand, USF has returning talent but also significant defensive weaknesses that could be exposed in this matchup.

At first glance, Boise State laying nearly six points on the road may seem like a trap line when making #25 Boise St. vs. USF picks, but both the statistics and the roster composition indicate that the Broncos are clearly the favored team. Below, we provide insights on #25 Boise St. vs. USF predictions, injury updates, and details on how to watch Thursday night’s nationally broadcast game!

 

 

 

#25 Boise St. vs. USF Spread Pick: Broncos -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Although Boise lost Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty to the NFL, they still possess one of the most well-rounded Group of Five rosters in the country. Veteran quarterback Maddux Madsen returns after a season in which he threw for 3,018 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. 

He is not just efficient; he also excels at avoiding negative plays, which is a significant advantage against a USF defense that had difficulty creating turnovers and ranked 119th nationally in yards allowed last season.

He is protected by a formidable offensive line led by Kage Casey, a projected NFL Draft pick who did not allow a sack in 2024. Boise retains 75% of its offensive production and boasts over 200 combined career starts on the offensive line. Such experience typically performs well, particularly in early-season road games.

Replacing Jeanty is undoubtedly a challenge, but Boise has no shortage of talent. Malik Sherrod, a transfer from Fresno State, and Sire Gaines, a former top recruit who averaged nearly 8 yards per carry before his injury last year, lead a committee that should find ample space behind the Broncos’ offensive line. 

Even if the running game is not as explosive as in 2024, it will remain consistent — and that is often sufficient to sway games against defenses like USF’s.

On the Bulls' side of #25 Boise St. vs. USF predictions, the focus is entirely on quarterback Byrum Brown. When performing at his peak, Brown ranks among the most electrifying dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation — in 2023, he became only the second FBS player (alongside LSU’s Jayden Daniels) to surpass 3,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards. However, he is recovering from a significant leg injury that prematurely ended his 2024 season.

If he is at full health, Brown can challenge Boise’s defense both in the air and on the ground. USF also benefits from stability on the offensive line, featuring four returning starters and over 100 combined starts, which should provide Brown with adequate protection. 

Nevertheless, Boise’s revamped defensive front, spearheaded by edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan (who recorded 10 sacks last year), possesses the depth to apply pressure throughout the game.

Ultimately, this matchup hinges on defense. Boise State concluded the season ranked 37th nationally in scoring defense (allowing 22.6 points per game) and bolstered its secondary via the transfer portal. In contrast, USF ranked 100th in scoring defense (allowing 29.8 points per game) and frequently appeared overwhelmed against capable passing offenses.

Even if Brown manages to advance the ball, the Bulls’ defense seems ill-equipped to consistently halt Madsen and the Broncos. Anticipate Boise to dominate time of possession with its offensive line, force Brown into challenging long-yardage scenarios, and ultimately widen the gap on the scoreboard.

The initial half may remain competitive, with Brown keeping USF within reach through significant plays. However, Boise’s depth and defensive reliability should shift the momentum in the second half. We expect the Broncos to transform a close game into a decisive victory as it progresses in our #25 Boise St. vs. USF picks.

 

 

 

How To Watch #25 Boise St. vs. USF College Football Week 1

  • Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025
  • Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
  • TV Broadcast: ESPN

#25 Boise St. vs. USF Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Following our #25 Boise St. vs. USF predictions, here are the latest #25 Boise St. vs. USF odds from DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Money Line (ML): Broncos -218 | Bulls +180
  • Spread: Broncos -5.5 (-108) | Bulls +5.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 62.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

 

 

 

#25 Boise St. vs. USF Injury Report & Latest News

Boise State Injury Report

  • RB Sire Gaines (ankle, 2024) is said to be completely healthy for Week 1.

USF Injury Report

  • QB Byrum Brown (leg injury, 2024) is anticipated to start, although he hasn't completed a full game since September 2024.
  • CB De’Shawn Rucker (on the Thorpe Award watch list) missed two games last season due to injury but is expected to be fit.

 

 

 

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