CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: January 4

Dan Servodidio

@dan_servodidio

College Basketball DFS Playbook

Published: Jan 04, 2022

THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)

6:30 pm ET -- Auburn (-9.5) at South Carolina -- 144.5 o/u (DK ONLY)
7 pm ET -- Oklahoma at Baylor (-12) -- 140.5 o/u
7 pm ET -- Kentucky at LSU (-2) -- 143.5 o/u
7 pm ET -- Texas (-8) at Kansas State -- 122.5 o/u
7 pm ET -- Florida State at Wake Forest (-1.5) -- 145 o/u
7 pm ET -- NC State at Virginia Tech (-9) -- 137.5 o/u
7 pm ET -- Texas A&M (-6) at Georgia -- 143 o/u (DK ONLY)
7 pm ET -- Michigan (-4) at Rutgers -- 132.5 o/u
7 pm ET -- Illinois (-7) at Minnesota -- 140 o/u
8 pm ET -- Seton Hall (-3.5) at Butler -- 131 o/u
8:30 pm ET -- Vanderbilt at Arkansas (-7) -- 144 o/u (DK ONLY)
9 pm ET -- Georgia Tech at Duke (-18.5) -- 141 o/u (FD ONLY)
9 pm ET -- Kansas (-6.5) at Oklahoma State -- 144 o/u (FD ONLY)

Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

Duke -- 80
Kansas -- 77
Baylor -- 76
Auburn -- 75
Virginia Tech -- 74
Arkansas -- 74
Wake Forest -- 73
Texas A&M -- 73
Illinois -- 72
Florida State -- 72

Top Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Alondes Williams	WAKE	FSU	8800	39.34	8600	36.81
The price tags are high but Williams has been a DFS stud all season and it hasn’t stopped since ACC play began. He’s put up 30 and 35 DK in the last two games vs. Louisville and Miami while filling the stat sheet due to heavy usage and shot volume while being an active rebounder and distributor. Expect him to keep it going at home in a faster-paced matchup vs. FSU to anchor your cash lineups.
Ron Harper Jr.	RU	MICH	8600	32.02	7600	29.19
It’s always an adventure rostering Harper Jr. as he continues to be an inconsistent, boom-or-bust DFS play. He’ll either kill your lineup like when he had 10 DK vs. Illinois, or help you take down a GPP like his 48 DK vs. Purdue in the next game. Interestingly, Harper Jr. has some drastic home/road splits and should be on the positive end of those trends at home tonight.
Dereon Seabron	NCST	VT	8500	40.29	8300	37.32
Seabron has had some monster DFS performances this season and he’s coming off an impressive 32 real points and 50 DK vs. Florida State last time out. The floor/ceiling combo for him is so high while averaging 19 PPG and leading NC State in usage rate, rebounding and assists. It’s a pace-down spot for him tonight, but he can still be a great play in all formats while filling up the stat sheet.
Christian Braun	KU	OKST			8200	32.65
On the FD slate, we have Kansas in action and that means Braun becomes a top-tier play. He continues to be the best DFS option on the team despite Ochai Agbaji being viewed as the best overall player in real life. Braun has 29+ FD points in eight straight games while filling up the stat sheet - and now he gets an uptempo matchup vs. OK State.
Wendell Green Jr.	AUB	SCAR	7400	26.56
The DK slate gets started early with Auburn headlining the 6:30 pm ET tipoff. There are a ton of different options in Auburn’s backcourt to go with, but Green is on a roll right now with 29+ DK points in five straight games while running the point. He deserves an expensive price tag and is a great play in an uptempo matchup here.

Other Top Guards to Consider:

Scotty Pippen Jr. -- Vanderbilt ($8,900 DK Only)
James Akinjo -- Baylor ($8,000 DK / $7,400 FD)
Payton Willis -- Minnesota ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)
Terquavion Smith -- NC State ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD)
Jake LaRavia -- Wake Forest ($6,500 DK / $8,100 FD)

Value Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Chris Lykes	ARK	VAND	4200	19.58
Lykes continues to be way too cheap and should be a popular value on the DK slate. There’s no reason for him to be in the 4k range at this point, considering he’s put up 20+ DK in five of the last six games while seeing heavy offensive usage. He’s even more important to Arkansas’ offense if JD Notae sits out again, but is a great value either way.
Storm Murphy	VT	NCST	4100	14.85	4700	13.12
Targeting players going against the soft NC State defense will be a strategy all year and we get to do it with Virginia Tech tonight. Thankfully VT employs a tight rotation where the starters play heavy minutes, making them safer cash plays in general before you consider this matchup. Murphy isn’t a flashy play, but we know he’s playing the majority of the game and has the upside to smash value if he gets hot from three.
Bryce Aiken	SHU	BUT	3700	20.61	6300	19.05
Aiken is severely mispriced on DK at sub-4k and is a massive bargain considering his recent play and FD price differential. He’s put up 33, 25 and 29 DK points over the last three games and is still somehow in the 3k price range. It’s hard to imagine him not returning value on the DK slate, but he’s still a solid option on FD as one of Seton Hall’s best player not named Jared Rhoden.
Thomas Allen	NCST	VT	3500	8.44	4800	7.95
In an interesting turn of events, Allen has taken on a bigger role for NC State over the last two games after being barely involved as a reserve earlier this season. He’s put up 28 and 19 DK in these past two and even replaced Cam Hayes in the starting lineup. The senior was a regular starter for the Wolfpack last year before missing the final month and it seems he’s finally back in that role again.
Justice Williams	LSU	UK	3000	14.75	3500	13.60
The freshman made his season debut last game and immediately played 24 minutes off the bench in a marquee road matchup at Auburn. It seems his early-season absence wasn’t injury-related and rather due to eligibility concerns since he reclassified into the 2021 class this offseason. Williams could be a key part of the LSU rotation moving forward and he’s too cheap for someone who can give you 4x or 5x with the upside for more.

Other Value Guards to Consider:

Kyle Sturdivant -- Georgia Tech ($5,000 FD Only)
Kario Oquendo -- Georgia ($4,900 DK Only)
Geo Baker -- Rutgers ($4,400 DK / $6,300 FD)
Kadary Richmond -- Seton Hall ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD)
Matthew Cleveland -- Florida State ($4,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

Top Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Oscar Tshiebwe	UK	LSU	9900	42.27	8800	39.47
Tshiebwe has entered the “fade at your own risk” category of DFS CBB. He’s already proven the 20+ rebound upside multiple times recently and can easily be the slate’s highest-scoring player. LSU’s tough defense and talented frontcourt could make life more difficult for Tshiebwe tonight on the road, but the ceiling is there for 40-50 DFS points. The expensive prices (especially on DK) make him more a GPP option here.
Kofi Cockburn	IL	MINN	9000	41.86	8700	38.87
Cockburn has one of the best DFS floors among top-tier players around the country and will likely be the chalky high-end forward in cash tonight. You know the Illinois big man is going to get the heavy usage and shot volume as the team’s go-to while Andre Curbelo remains out. Minnesota has an undersized frontcourt that should struggle to contain Cockburn down low on both ends.
Paolo Banchero	DUKE	GT			8400	31.13
We’ve got Duke on the FD slate tonight, so it means both Banchero and Wendell Moore Jr. are both firmly in play as the team’s DFS studs this season. It’s tough to get a good read on how well Banchero and the Blue Devils will play since they’ve been off for two weeks, but the GT frontcourt will likely struggle to defend him on the road here. Both he and Moore are solid plays in all formats.
Walker Kessler	AUB	SCAR	8100	31.56
On the DK slate, Auburn’s frontcourt duo of Kessler and Jabari Smith are both firmly in play as they should have their way in the paint against South Carolina. For the slight savings and a bit more upside, Kessler gets the nod over Smith here. The 7-footer is coming off a triple-double with 11 blocks against LSU last time out and has the ability to take over the game.
Keve Aluma	VT	NCST	7400	29.02	7700	27.39
Though he’s priced notably lower than the other forward studs on this slate, Aluma shouldn’t go overlooked as he could easily give you similar or better production at sub-8k cost. It’s been a couple weeks since we’ve seen Tech in action, but Aluma had a 25-point double-double and 45 DK vs. Duke last time out. He should have an advantage down low against this NC State squad and be a perfectly fine cash option.

Other Top Forwards to Consider:

Hunter Dickinson -- Michigan ($8,400 DK / $8,200 FD)
Jabari Smith -- Auburn ($8,300 DK Only)
Wendell Moore Jr. -- Duke ($7,800 FD Only)
Tari Eason -- LSU ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD)

Value Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Jacob Grandison	IL	MINN	5500	22.32	6500	20.38
Grandison has replaced Coleman Hawkins in the starting lineup over the past two games and he’d be a solid salary-saver if that’s the case again tonight. In these last two starts, Grandison has put up 30 and 23 DK and has consistently shown a floor/ceiling combo of 20-30 DK points over the past month. He's a better value on DK considering the price differential.
Isaiah Mucius	WAKE	FSU	5400	18.21	5400	16.39
The tight Wake rotation always puts the starters in play and Mucius brings in a ton of upside into this matchup. He’s the team’s best three-point shooter (40.7%) and now faces an FSU squad that’s been among the country’s worst at defending the three. It’s a risky play because the majority of Mucius’ DFS value comes from perimeter scoring, but the smash value ceiling is there if he gets hot.
Noah Baumann	UGA	TA&M	5100	13.85
A DK only value here with Georgia in action on that slate. Baumann has moved into the Bulldogs’ starting lineup over the past four games with Jailyn Ingram out for the season and he’s been playing like one of the team’s best players. He has 19, 30, 42 and 19 DK in these four starts and should easily return value at an affordable price point.
Mitch Lightfoot	KU	OKST			4700	10.86
Without many FD values worth playing in cash, Lightfoot stands out and he’ll likely be popular at sub-5k. Interestingly enough, the senior big man is getting the start over David McCormack tonight at KU’s center spot and that fact alone means he should return value. McCormack has been struggling lately and might be dealing with an injury - opening the door for Lightfoot in the starting lineup.
Ebenezer Dowuona	NCST	VT	3600	16.05	5000	15.66
Although Dowuona offers little to nothing as a pure scorer, he does do plenty as a rebounder and shot-blocker while playing the majority of the game in NC State’s tight rotation. The 6-foot-11 center will have a size advantage over VT tonight and should be a decent cash value if he can stay out of foul trouble - especially at a dirt cheap DK price tag.

Other Value Forwards to Consider:

Allen Flanigan -- Auburn ($5,400 DK Only)
Wildens Leveque -- South Carolina ($5,000 DK Only)
Myles Stute -- Vanderbilt ($4,500 DK Only)
Ethan Chargois -- Oklahoma ($4,300 DK / $4,400 FD)
Khadim Sy -- Wake Forest ($3,800 DK / $4,700 FD)

DraftKings Core Plays

Kofi Cockburn -- Illinois ($9,000)
Chris Lykes -- Arkansas ($4,200)
Bryce Aiken -- Seton Hall ($3,700)

FanDuel Core Plays

Christian Braun -- Kansas ($8,200)
Paolo Banchero -- Duke ($8,400)
Mitch Lightfoot -- Kansas ($4,700)