MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 129 - Usman vs Maia

UFC FN 129 - Usman vs. Maia

UFC Fight Night 129 travels to the wonderful South American country of Chile! While this isn’t the best fight card ever compiled by the UFC, there are a handful of fights that are intriguing to me that should give us some solid Saturday night entertainment value. There are few “LIVE DOGS” on this card, so we’ll need to dig deep to find one or two that we think will hit for us and our rosters. I wouldn’t be surprised if there aren’t any LIVE DOGS winning, making it necessary to roster the best loser out there. Without further ado, lets get into it!

Undercard

The first fight of the night pits 22 year old Claudio Puelles against 33 year old Felipe Silva. Puelles (7-2) hasn’t fought since November of 2016 when he was competing in the finals of TUF Latin America 3. The Peruvian is a southpaw kickboxer who likes to go to the body frequently with both legs. He’s got a solid wrestling game, and is still very young when it comes to his MMA career. We should see him evolve quickly before our eyes in the bright spotlight of the UFC, but this will be a tough matchup for him to show his evolution.

Felipe Silva (8-1) is 11 years older than Puelles at 33, but unlike many mainstream sports, the younger fighter in MMA doesn’t mean that they’ll be the better fighter. Often times a fighter ranging from his late twenties to his late thirties possess more tools, skills, and experience within the game that often elevates them above their younger counterparts, and I think this is a prime example of that type of dynamic. The Brazilian was undefeated in his MMA career heading into his UFC debut and defeated Shane Campbell in his first foray into the Octagon, but was knocked out by Mairbek Taisumov in his next bout. Silva is a guy with a lot of finishing power, as he has the ability to end a fight with both hands while also mixing in a variety of kicks (especially leg kicks) and body punches that cause his opponents to be wary of all of his limbs.

Silva has the best Inside the Distance odds at -140, and his price tag us a good example of these odds as well - holding a $9,400 salary, the highest priced on the card. You’ll have to pay up for the -326 favorite in Silva, and it may be difficult to have him payoff his lofty price tag, as you’ll need a first round stoppage for the Brazilian to have a chance at earning his salary in points. I don’t foresee Silva wanting to take this one to the ground, so you can basically kiss any takedown, advance, or GNP points from being accumulated from Silva’s side of things, and as you know, you really rack up the points in these 3 round affairs when you have a well rounded fighter who mixes in takedowns, advances, ground strikes, and standing strikes before eventually ending the fight within the first two rounds. I think Silva will keep this one standing and will punish the Puelles on the feet before ending it in the first round. Look for a solid 95 - 110 point night from Silva. A solid Cash play and large GPP play, but he’ll be popular and is a risk with such a high salary since he’ll be taking on a fighter who may have improved significantly since we last saw him fight a year and a half ago.

PICK:                                                 Silva, TKO, 1st                                             

Cash Game:                                       Silva (8.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Silva (7.5/10): you’ll have to pay up for him, and need a stoppage in the first in order for him to payoff his highest priced salary on the card. It’s a gamble, as we haven’t seen Puelles’ improvements in his game for over a year and a half. He could pose a problem for Silva because of this wild card, and it is a concern to some degree, so keep this in the back of your mind when building your LU’s.

7 Fight UFC vet, Frankie Saenz (12-5) is 37 and he’s 4-3 in the UFC with a controversial split decision win over Merab Dvalishvili in his last bout back in December. The American is a grinder and he used his wrestling-based style to win his first three fights in the UFC including a huge upset over Iuri Alcantara in 2014. After enduring a three-fight losing streak against a solid level of competition he picked up a close win over Dvalishvili his last time out to save his UFC job. I don’t love this spot here at $9,100, especially with what I’ve seen of Saenz in the UFC cage. He’s a one dimensional grinder who won’t wow you in the cage. He’s pretty limited with his skillset, and needs an almost perfect matchup for us to even consider targeting him within our LU’s.

Henry Briones (16-7-1) is 37 and he’s 1-3 in the UFC. The Mexican defeated Guido Cannetti in his UFC debut but has lost three-straight fights since then and has been finished in his last two. He is a guy who finished a bunch of fights on the regional circuit but hasn’t looked UFC-caliber since entering the Octagon. I may have a share or two of Briones in this spot just for the sole fact that I really don’t like Saenz game, but ultimately I think Saenz will grind out a pretty boring decision that will not see many DK points being generated on either side of the cage. I’ll be passing on this fight for the most part, but I’ll have a small share of Briones in large format GPP’s just in case that he surprises us with a fight stopping sequence that ends Saenz’s UFC career. A gamble for sure.

PICK:                                                 Saenz, Decision, Unanimous                                 

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   N/A

Enrique Barzola (14-3-1) is 29 and he’s 4-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Matt Bessette his last time out. The Peruvian won TUF Latin American 2 and is currently riding a three-fight win streak since his lone UFC defeat to Kyle Bochniak. He has turned into somewhat of a decision machine in the UFC but has gotten his hand raised most of the time so it appears he has a favorable style to the judges. Barzola loves to get the fight to the mat, but he has a tough time keeping his opponents there, and that’s a good thing when it comes to DFS scoring! We want to see our fighters get takedowns, land some GNP, and then have their foe get back to their feet so they can do it all over again. This is when we really see points accumulated. It’s a rate style to have, but Barzola has it, and it’s something we have taken note of!

Brandon Davis (9-3) is 28 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Steven Peterson in his last fight. The American earned a UFC contract after a good showing on Dana White’s Contender Series but a decision loss to Bochniak in his UFC debut was disappointing. Davis has a high volume striking game that bodes well within the DK scoring framework, but this can be mitigated easily if he cannot prevent the TD’s from Barzola. Ultimately, I think Barzola will have his way with Davis, and the pressure wrestling game of Barzola will overwhelm the volume striking game of Davis. If you are looking to choose between a pressure wrestler who doesn’t have a great top game, and a high-volumed striker with less than adequate TD defense, then you definitely want to side with the former, and that’s just what we’ll do in this one. This will be a competitive fight, but the heavy pressure that Barzola will implement will be too much for Davis to handle, and will be the difference maker in this one. Yes, it probably goes to a decision, but this has a very good chance of being a high scoring decision victory for Barzola due to his solid takedown game and inability to keep his opponents on the ground for any significant length of time. This is a recipe for some serious points, and an upside that we should be targeting in all formats, especially GPP’s!

PICK:                                                  Barzola, Decision, Unanimous                   

Cash Game:                                       Barzola (8/10)

GPP:                                                   Barzola (8.5/10): Love the upside he brings with his pressure TD game and poor top game!

Gabriel Benitez (20-6) is 29 and he’s 4-2 in the UFC with a huge upset decision win over Jason Knight in his last fight, and lost to the aforementioned Barzola the fight before that. The Mexican has shown a well-rounded game so far in the UFC and although he has lost a couple of times I still feel like he’s a very solid fighter, which he showed in the win over Knight. He trains out of a great camp in American Kickboxing Academy in California, so you’ll know that he’ll be well prepared for this fight. He’s more than a 2:1 favorite over Bandenay and brings in a very reasonable $8,500 salary with a great +134 Inside the Distance prop line!

Humberto Bandenay (14-4, 1 NC) is 23 and is 1-0 in the UFC. The Peruvian knocked out Martin Bravo in his UFC debut and has won six-straight fights overall. He has been flying under the radar for a while now but with six-straight finishes it’s hard to sleep on this guy anymore. Though I am not ruling out an upset win here by Bandenay due to his youth and upside, I still feel like Benitez is the more complete fighter at this point of his career. Benitez has done the right thing and surrounded himself with MMA animals at AKA, while Bandenay has recently started training with a solid camp in Team Oyama in Southern California, but Benitez has been with AKA much longer, and it should show in the result here.

I like Benitez a lot here, but I also think that the public will as well. Benitez is well-rounded enough to win this fight on the feet or on the ground, and for $8,500 I think he is well worth the investment, as I see a first round stoppage in his future and a 100+ point DK night! For $8,500 we will more than welcome a 100+ point victory within our lineups! On top of these factors, we are getting some solid odds value here in Benitez at -3 (ranked 10th in DK salary, and 7th in betting odds), and you know how much I like these odds values! Just don’t be shocked when a large portion of the smart MMA DFS’ers are also riding Benitez across the finish line as well!

PICK:                                                  Benitez, Submission, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Benitez (9/10)

GPP:                                                   Benitez (9/10): His popularity scares me to some degree in GPP’s, but I think he has one of the higher upsides on the card, so we’ll just have to ignore how popular he will be.

Poliana Botelho (6-1) is 29 and she’s 1-0 in the UFC with a decision win over Pearl Gonzalez in her UFC debut, a win that is looking really good now that Gonzalez is having success in Invicta. The Brazilian has five knockout wins in her MMA career so far which is rare for a strawweight, so she clearly has some potential in this sport.

Syuri Kondo (6-0) is 29 and she’s 1-0 in the UFC with a decision win over Chan Mi-Jeon in her UFC debut. The Japan native is a former Pancrase champion but she is a decision machine who doesn’t have much in the way of finishing potential. She does have a ton of combat sports experience but I haven’t been too impressed with her MMA run so far.

This isn’t a fight I’ll be targeting very heavily on either side, but with a gun to my head I’d be rostering Kondo due to her price tag of $7,500. She’s worth the risk, because even if she pulls off a decision victory, she’ll most likely be able to payoff the mid-$7k range DK salary! I wouldn’t touch Botelho in this one, as her $8,700 salary will be very difficult to payoff based on her fighting style. I don’t foresee either fighter being very popular, but Kondo will have a higher ownership due to her price tag. I’d recommend having a few shares of Kondo in GPP’s, and maybe one of your Cash LU’s, but don’t go overboard, as there are a lot of unknowns in this contest!

PICK:                                                  Kondo, Decision, Split

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Kondo (7/10): This is a salary based play only, as we need to find a few LIVE DOGS on the card, and I think we have one here in Kondo. Avoid Botelho, as her $8,700 is way too high for the risk that she presents.

Brandon Moreno (14-4) is 24 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC with a decision win to Sergio Pettis in his last bout. The Mexican looked incredible in his first three UFC fights, defeating the likes of Dustin Ortiz and Louis Smolka, but the loss to Pettis -- which snapped an 11-fight win streak -- showed that he still has work to do. Considering he’s still in his early 20s he should continue to improve and he’s a guy I could see making another run for the flyweight title in a few years. 

Alexandre Pantoja (18-3) is 28 and he’s 2-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Ortiz in his last outing. The Brazilian was on an 11-fight win streak prior to the loss to Ortiz including a brilliant submission win over Neil Seery in the Octagon.

Both of these guys are very good flyweights who are known to finish fights and this should be a good scrap. This will be a scrappy, grinding affair with plenty of scrambles to go around. This is a difficult fight to call, as I could see it going either way, and usually when you are in a position such as this, then you look a little bit harder at ownership levels. I have a feeling that Moreno will the more popular fighter due to his slightly lesser salary, but he’s also more well known to the casual UFC fan than Pantoja is. With that being said I like Pantoja more here. I think he has a better striking skill set than Moreno, and this will ultimately carry him to a decision victory. It will be a high volumed striking game that racks up the points for Pantoja, and when you combine that with a lower level of ownership in GPP’s, he becomes that much more of a play for me. His Inside the Distance prop odds of +280 are far better than that of Moreno who owns an ITD line of +470! A solid mid-range play here, and I wouldn’t rule out a possible TKO stoppage for Pantoja either, whereas, I cannot foresee Moreno winning via TKO at all. I wouldn’t be scared to roster Pantoja in my Cash game LU’s either.

PICK:                                                  Pantoja, TKO, 2nd    

Cash Game:                                       Pantoja (7.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Pantoja (8/10): A close fight, but I like Pantoja’s skill set, price tag, and ownership level in this one!

Michel Prazeres (24-2) is 36 and he’s 8-2 in the UFC with a decision win over Desmond Green in his last bout. The Brazilian is currently riding a six-fight win streak and has looked really impressive at times but he missed weight in three of his last four fights so the UFC forced him to fight up a weight class to Welterweight. Prazeres will have to get inside on Cummings to be effective, and that will be a big challenge, as Cummings will have an 8 inch reach advantage! 

Zak Cummings (21-5) is 33 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC with a submission win over Nathan Coy in his last bout. The American is a well-rounded fighter who comes from a grappling background and he’s finished four fights in the UFC with his losses only coming against ranked fighters in Gunnar Nelson and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Cummings is an underrated fighter who has never gotten the respect he deserves.

Even though he is a powerhouse wrestler, I feel like Prazeres is coming to be severely undersized at welterweight. He’s only 5’6” and Cummings is 6’0”. Prazeres might be strong at lightweight, but I don’t think his strength will carry up well to welterweight. I think Cummings stops Prazeres’ takedown attempts, keeps this fight standing, and outstrikes him for a decision win. With that being said, I could see this one being a very low scoring fight, as Cummings will be cautious of Prazeres’ power on the inside, and I think the Brazilian will have a difficult time getting on the inside of Cummings and using his power to have a significant effect on the outcome of the fight. I foresee Cummings using his footwork to outstrike Prazeres from the outside, and when we typically see a strategy like this employed, it usually results in a low scoring affair due to few strikes being landed. Cummings is a smart and savvy fighter, and he won’t let himself be put in compromising positions with a dangerous opponent like Prazeres. This will result in a more boring fight than most people have predicted, and ultimately, a low scoring affair from a DK perspective. Roster at your own risk here, as I’ll have little to none of these two in my lineups. I think these two (especially Cummings), will be owned at a much higher level than they should be, so lets let the rest of the public fall on their face with this one, shall we? Gun to my head, I’ll take Prazeres due to his price tag and lower ownership, but I’ll be avoiding for the most part.

PICK:                                                  Cummings, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   N/A

Main Card

The start of the main card has a solid matchup for us to sink our teeth into. Vicente Luque (12-6-1) is 26 and he’s 5-2 in the UFC with a submission win over Niko Price in his last outing. “The Silent Assassin” has looked amazing in the UFC at times with five finishes in all of his UFC wins but has lost two decisions when he was taken down and controlled. Still, he’s shown tremendous promise at times and is a guy I really like watching fight. He’s a 2:1 betting favorite in this one with a solid +110 ITD prop line. Only 28% of his fights go to the judges scorecards, and he’s got a reasonable salary of $8,800 in this one.

Chad Laprise (13-2) is 31 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC with a TKO win over Galore Bofando in his last outing. The Canadian is a solid kickboxer who has won his last three fights via TKO and has really improved since losing back-to-back fights against Ross Pearson and Francisco Trinaldo a few years back. He looks much better since moving up to welterweight. His footwork is constantly improving, and he lands at a pretty high pace (4.87 SLpM). On top of his solid striking game, he also stuffs 80% of his opponents takedown attempts, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. This all sounds great, and you’re probably thinking that I’ll be all over Laprise in this one, but not the case.

This is one of the best fights on the card and I’m expecting a war between two guys who are known for finishing their fights. Luque has dangerous power in both hands, and he’s also been able to capitalize on opportunities when his opponents have offered up their necks, locking up submissions with ease. His well-rounded game makes him dangerous not only inside the Octagon, but within our DK lineups as well! This is the type of fighter that we are looking to roster; someone that can end the fight with one punch, or look to get the fight to the mat and lock up a submission at a moments notice! Luque is just that type of fighter, and I think Laprise will become frustrated with being outmatched wherever this fight ends up taking place. Luque has a high upside, and has a great ITD prop line, and should lead our LU’s to the promise land where the roads are paved in gold and DFS riches! I like Luque in all formats come Saturday night! He’ll be a popular play, but worth rostering!

PICK:                                                  Luque, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:                                       Luque (8/10)

GPP:                                                   Luque (9/10)

                                                            Laprise (7/10): I’ll have a small share of Laprise just as a contrarian play.

Andrea “KGB” Lee (8-2) is 29 and she’s making her UFC debut. The American is currently on a four-fight win streak and was the LFA flyweight champion before her call-up to the UFC. She is a solid prospect and a good signing by the UFC. Veronica Macedo (5-1-1) is 22 and she’s 0-1 in the UFC with a TKO loss to Ashlee Evans-Smith, and I really question whether or not she is a UFC caliber fighter at this point in her career. Evans-Smith is not very good, and for Macedo to get dominated by her tells you where Macedo’s game currently stands. The Venezuelan made her MMA debut in 2016 and fought seven times that year but has not fought since and that concerns me. I think Lee is a bit overrated but Macedo’s lack of activity is going to cost her here as I believe Lee is going to be able to take her down and likely win the fight by submission. I don’t always love to invest in women’s MMA fights with this many unknowns, but I think Lee brings enough tools to the table where she could win on the feet, on the ground, or on the judges’ scorecards. Lee has a solid amount of upside in this one due to Macedo’s questionable all-around MMA game, and I’ll be investing heavily in Lee, or should I say, I’ll be investing heavily against Macedo? Regardless, Lee is legit, and Macedo is not UFC caliber. I like Lee in all formats for her $9,200 price tag.

PICK:                                                  Lee, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Lee (9/10)

GPP:                                                   Lee (9.5/10)   

Diego Rivas (7-1) is 26 and he’s 2-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Jose Quinonez in his last bout back in August of last year. Rivas is the only Chilean fighter on this card, and apparently the only reason why the UFC has decided to travel to the South American country, but that’s a story for another day I guess. Rivas is best known for his flying knee KO over Noad Lahat but unfortunately he has not been able to stay on a consistent schedule due to injuries and was never able to capitalize on the momentum of that bout. Rivas does have some power in his hands, but he strikes at a stupidly low rate, making him painful to watch. He only lands 1.33 Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), which is by far the lowest on the card! Welcome home Diego, now please don’t fall asleep in the cage because you forgot to throw strikes.

Guido Cannetti (7-3) is 38 and he’s 1-2 in the UFC with a submission loss to Kyung Ho Kang in his last outing. The Argentine has not been impressive in the UFC and has rarely fought with just three fights in the last four years. He’s also very old and has problems with his submission defense, but at least he throws with more volume and doesn’t mind standing in the pocket to see who can withstand power punches longer - himself or his opponent. 

This is a pretty gross fight, and has no right being on a UFC card, let alone the main card, but I guess you get that privilege when one of the fighters is the only Chilean fighter on the card while fighting in Chile. I honestly don’t know what to say about this horse poop matchup. I hate Rivas’ work rate, and I don’t have much confidence in the skill set and age of Cannetti. When it comes down to it, I may have a few shares of Cannetti due to his $7,600 price tag and the fact that he trains at Team Alpha Male. I put a lot of faith in fighters who surround themselves with legit, tough training partners on a daily basis. There is something to be said for that, and I think it will be the difference in this fight. I won’t be going overboard by any means, but I’ll have a few shares of Cannetti in some larger scale GPP’s, and maybe a touch or two of Rivas just for the sole fact that he’s fighting in front of his home crowd, which may bring out another side of the zombie fighter that we haven’t seen before, and he’ll also be very low owned, and that’s a good thing when building a GPP lineup.

PICK:                                                  Cannetti, boring decision, split

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Cannetti (7/10)                      

                                                            Rivas (6/10)

Snapshot: 

In this Light Heavyweight bout we have an interesting matchup between two Americans from the west coast of the US - Cannonier from Alaska and Reyes from California. Dominick Reyes (8-0) is 28 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC with a submission win over Jeremy Kimball in his last bout back in December. In his two bouts in the UFC Reyes really hasn’t been challenged at all. His first bout against Joachim Christensen he came in as a -325 favorite, and won easily by TKO :29 seconds into the first round. His 2nd bout against Kimball he was a huge -500 favorite, and ended up winning in the 1st round by submission. The UFC seems to be building him and his 8-0 record up, and this will be his first real test to date, if you really consider it a “test”. He is coming in as a -258 favorite with a $9,000 price tag and a -115 Inside the Distance prop line - 3rd best on the card. The Californian has quickly emerged as one of the top prospects at 205 if you ask much of the media folk, and you look at his ability to finish fights on the feet and on the ground, but like I said, he really hasn’t been tested to start to consider him as a legit prospect for the LHW belt. and I believe he has the potential to contend for the light heavyweight belt within the next few years. Reyes is a tall, long, powerful southpaw a huge left cross and left round kick. He’s smooth, athletic, and is able to string combinations together at distance, making him fun to watch and tough to defend against! He’s only been fighting for 3.5 years, and for him to already be competing at this level with this much hype behind him, it’s really interesting to see how far he can go with his talents.

Jared Cannonier (10-3) is 33 and he’s 3-3 in the UFC with a decision loss to Jan Blachowicz in his last outing back in December. Cannonier recently moved his family from the great white north of Alaska to Arizona permanently in order to train full time at the MMA Lab, showing his commitment and dedication to becoming the best MMA fighter he possibly can be. He’s a big light heavyweight with solid boxing and underrated takedown defense but he appears to be just a level below the top guys at 205lbs, but with his recent move to Arizona and full-time training at one of the best MMA gyms in the country, who knows where “The Killa Gorilla” will end up within the next few years. He’s reaching his MMA prime at 33 years old, and he’s now surrounded himself with legit training partners who will possibly be able to help him evolve into one of the elite 205’ers in the world. Only time will tell though!

I think this is good matchmaking by the UFC as I see Cannonier being a solid test for Reyes, and vica-versa. Cannonier has very good cardio, heavy hands, solid takedown defense, and a new lease on life since he’s now training full-time at the MMA Lab, while Reyes has a bunch of hype behind him without much actual high-level competition under his belt; a true “Test” for the Cali-kid. Can he live up to the hype that has been bestowed upon him? We really don’t have much film on Reyes to know if he truly is a competitor that can compete at the upper-echelon of the Light Heavyweight division or not. This makes it difficult to know who you are actually rostering, and is a true gamble for us, but we like to gamble, right? Reyes’ price tag of $9,000 seems a bit high to me with all of these question marks surrounding him, and on the flip side, having Cannonier coming in at $7,200 seems to be underpriced to some degree. I’ll have some exposure to Cannonier, as he’s one of the few LIVE DOGS on the card that I truly think could pull off a victory, but it’s a big roll of the dice. When evaluating a fighter to consider him or her a “LIVE DOG”, I often look at their experience and how they have performed against the high-end of the sport, and Cannonier having 6 UFC fights under his belt gives me a lot of faith in his ability of upsetting someone like Reyes. Not saying that Reyes is overrated, but he really hasn’t proved much to us yet due to the weakness of the competition that he has faced. Combine that with the fact that he’s only been competing professionally since 2014, and I have a much better feeling that Cannonier will be able to handle the bright lights and pressure that’s thrown upon him.

I’ll have some exposure to both of these guys, but I’ll definitely be rostering Cannonier as an opportunity to save some serious loot when constructing my lineups in both Cash and GPP formats! Rostering “The Killa Gorilla” frees up a lot of space, and in my opinion, gives us a legit shot at winning the fight as a pretty significant underdog. Reyes is a big gamble in my eyes, as he really hasn’t fought anyone that you’d want to write home about!

PICK:                  Cannonier, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:       Cannonier (7/10)

GPP:                    Cannonier (8/10): It’s a risk here, but it’s an educated gamble that could payoff drastically, especially if his ownership is pretty low like I expect it to be!

                             Reyes (7/10): His price tag and ownership level keeps his GPP ranking low here, but still worth rostering on a few of your GPP LU’s. 

Snapshot:

In the co-main event of the evening, Tatiana Suarez (5-0) is 27 and she’s 3-0 in the UFC with a decision win over Viviane Pereira in her last outing. The American won TUF 23 but injuries have only allowed her to fight twice since 2016. Still, she’s been dominant when she’s competed and if she can stay healthy has all the potential in the world to make a run for the title. She by far has the best wrestling in her division, and you know I love to roster wrestlers in DraftKings GPP contests ever since they revamped their scoring system! The ring rust shouldn’t play a big factor when it comes Suarez, as wrestling ring rust isn’t a big risk in my eyes.

Alexa Grasso (10-1) is 24 and she’s 2-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Randa Markos in her last bout. The Mexican was thought of as the top prospect at 115lbs but after losing to Felice Herrig many have soured on her. She has really good boxing but the Herrig fight exposed her defense and this could be the beginning of the end for Grasso when it comes to high-level competition in the UFC.

Though Grasso is still a solid prospect who could rebuild her stock quickly, I feel like Suarez is a level above her at this point. I think Suarez is going to be fighting for the strawweight title within the next two years, and I think she continues her undefeated roll with a decision win over Grasso in this bout. I also think that Suarez could post the highest score of the event with the style that she brings to the table. Her aggressive wrestling will allow her to score well in DFS, but the real question becomes whether or not Grasso can get back to her feet, allowing Suarez to get another takedown and continue to rinse and repeat her way to a 120+ point night? So what it boils down to is whether you want to roster Usman or Suarez, because they both of similar games from a wrestling perspective and you can’t afford to roster both of them. I’ll be taking Usman due to his fight being five rounds, and him having a more well-rounded game that will allow him to land some strikes on the feet as well, whereas, I think Suarez is more one dimensional than Usman.

PICK:                                                  Suarez, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       Suarez (9.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Suarez (9/10)

Snapshot:

Here we are - the main event of the evening! A 5 round fistacuff that most likely will offer up a fighter who will be on the optimal lineup; either Usman racking up 120+ points, or Maia winning by submission and locking up a LIVE DOG victory and hopefully taking home 90+ points in an unexpected victory!

Kamaru Usman (12-1) is 31 and he’s 7-0 in the UFC with a decision win over Emil Weber Meek in his last bout. The Nigerian has looked incredible in the UFC with seven-straight wins and his wrestling has been utterly dominant. The one criticism of Usman is that he’s not finishing his fights but there’s no question he’s a terrific fighter in his prime who is closing in on a welterweight title shot. Regardless of his tendency to win by decision, he’s still racking up some serious DraftKings points due to his wrestle-heavy style. His last 3 fights he’s scored 116, 108, and 101 in 2 decision victories, and 1 TKO victory!

Maia (25-8) is 40 and he’s 19-8 in the UFC overall though he’s lost two-straight fights to Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington. The Brazilian is one of the greatest MMA grapplers of all time and has had a tremendous career but now at 40 he looks to be slowing down. He looked really old against Covington and that fight set the blueprint for this one as Covington was able to take Maia down at will and control him on the ground. Maia also took this fight on short notice which is another knock against him in this matchup. I see Usman doing the same thing here. I just feel like Usman’s wrestling is going to be too dominant and I think he avoids Maia’s submission attempts to take home the biggest decision win of his career.

I’ll have a heavy ownership of Usman in my Cash LU’s, and I’ll also have a good amount of Usman in my GPP LU’s, but he will be heavily owned, so we must take this into consideration when building out our large GPP format rosters. Suarez or Usman should be your decision when building out some of your GPP LU’s, and I’ll tend to lean towards Usman due to having 5 rounds to work his game, and also being more well-rounded than Suarez is as well.

PICK:                                                  Usman, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       Usman (9.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Usman (9/10)

                                                            Maia (7.5/10): Contrarian play in a few LU’s only.

Optimal Lineups

GPP 1

Cash 1