We’re down to nine fights for this card after losing Rosa-Eubanks to a bad weight cut. That’s never ideal but the variance we’ve seen in these COVID cards has made up for less fights. Beware the chalk and look for a leverage spot with a path like Andre Muniz and his BJJ. He probably doesn’t win but launches you up the leaderboard if he does. We’ve also seen main event GPP stacks become profitable when there are so few fights with high variance. You won’t take it down but you’ll also find yourself in the green if it doesn’t end early.
| Main Event |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alistair Overeem vs Augusto Sakai | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Safe | -150/ +140 | +120/+246 |
| Overeem is the deserving favorite here. He's better everywhere. The only issue is his chin holding up. Sakai has decent power but I don't think enough to be a big problem. It's an ok stack with the fight's lost. |
| | | | | | |
| Expensive |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brian Kelleher | 9200 | Kevin Natividad | Safe | -220 | +165 |
| |
| Hunter Azure | 9100 | Cole Smith | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | +275 |
| Azure is another safe-ish bet with more modest upside. He was putting together a great pace in his loss to Kelleher, which had a lot to do with him tiring. Does he slow it down here? He also hasn't initiated much grappling despite a background ass a wrestler. That's also likely to continue against Smith, who looks to wrestle. |
| Viviane Araujo | 8900 | Montana De La Rosa | Moderate | -175 | +290 |
| |
| Thiago Moises | 9000 | Jalin Turner | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +145 |
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| | | | | | |
| Mid-Range |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bartosz Fabinski | 8600 | Andre Muniz | Somewhat-Safe | -157 | +400 |
| We love Bartosz because of his singular focus on repeat wrestling. He's got no interest in a kickboxing match. You might beat him up but he will just keep coming for takedowns and passes. He'll be in the danger zone early with Muniz's BJJ but has a heavy enough top game that it shouldn't be a big risk. |
Alexandr Romanov | 8400 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Moderate | -145 | -130 |
The UFC has been looking to fast track Romanov, the Moldovian former Sumo wrestler. COVID has gotten in the way of that debut but it's here against a very beatable opponent. He'll have to avoid some early haymakers but should cruise after that. |
| Alonzo Menifield | 8300 | Ovince Saint Preux | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +140 |
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| Michel Pereira | 8200 | Zelim Imadaev | Risky | -112 | +140 |
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| Zelim Imadaev | 8000 | Michel Pereira | Risky | +102 | +285 |
| Imadaev has been a UFC disappointment. There is a chance good technique backed by solid aggression is a big problem for Pereira's wild style. Imadaev has the tools to do that. We just don't know if he has the desire. |
| | | | | | |
| Pay-Downs |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jalin Turner | 7200 | Thiago Moises | Somewhat-Safe | +135 | +225 |
| Muniz looked pretty good at weigh ins. That has me reconsidering him somewhat. There's a chance he's too much on the feet for Bartosz to get his wrestling going. It's a small one, though. |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 7800 | Alexandr Romanov | Risky | +125 | +140 |
| It's early KO or gas, as usual with de Lima. Romanov is a fairly big unknown at this point. Maybe the European regionals he dominanted didn't prepare him for this. |
| Cole Smith | 7100 | Hunter Azure | Risky | +185 | +515 |
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| Montana De La Rosa | 7300 | Viviane Araujo | Risky | +155 | +470 |
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| Kevin Natividad | 7000 | Brian Kelleher | Risky | +200 | +330 |
| We've seen our share of late replacement with nothing to lose come in and swing for the fences only to connect for a KO. Kelleher is a good fighter but not someone so slick that he won't get hit. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Pereira | Imadaev | $8,200 | to | Imadaev | Pereira | $8,000 |
| Saint Preux | Menifield | $7,900 | to | Menifield | Saint Preux | $8,300 |
| Overeem | Sakai | $8,800 | | | | |
| Romanov | Rogerio de Lima | $8,400 | | | | |
| Turner | Moises | $7,200 | to | Muniz | Fabinski | $7,600 |
| Azure | Smith | $9,100 | to | Kelleher | Natividad | $9,200 |
| | Total Salary | $49,600 | | | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
| | | | | | | |
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Kelleher | Natividad | $9,200 | to | Azure | Smith | $9,100 |
| Overeem | Sakai | $8,800 | | | | |
| Sakai | Overeem | $7,400 | | | | |
| Fabinski | Muniz | $8,600 | | | | |
Romanov | Rogerio de Lima | $8,400 | | | | |
| Turner | Moises | $7,200 | to | De La Rosa | Araujo | $7,300 |
| | Total Salary | $49,600 | | | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
| | | | | | | |
| Example Lineups | | |
| FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Overeem | Sakai | $22 | | | | |
| Turner | Moises | $14 | | | | |
Romanov | Rogerio de Lima | $17 | to | Kelleher | Natividad | $18 |
| Pereira | Imadaev | $17 | to | Imadaev | Pereira | $16 |
| Saint Preux | Menifield | $16 | to | Menifield | Saint Preux | $18 |
| Muniz | Fabinski | $14 | | | | |
| | Total Salary | $100 | | | Pivot Salary | $100 |
| | | | | | | |
| FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot |
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
| Overeem | Sakai | $22 | | | | |
| Sakai | Overeem | $19 | | | | |
| Turner | Moises | $14 | | | | |
| Kelleher | Natividad | $18 | to | Azure | Smith | $21 |
| Fabinski | Muniz | $18 | | | | |
| De La Rosa | Araujo | $9 | to | Smith | Azure | $10 |
| | Total Salary | $100 | | | Pivot Salary | $100 |
Favorite Bets: Overeem -150, Turner +135
Favorite Props: OSP ITD +195
Long Shot: De La Rosa ITD +470
Live Dogs: Turner, OSP, Sakai, Imadaev, De La Rosa, Muniz
Stats & Picks:
| | | |
| Alistair Overeem | vs | Augusto Sakai |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 46-18-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-1-1 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| | | |
| Ovince Saint Preux | vs | Alonzo Menifield |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 24-14-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Michel Pereira | vs | Zelim Imadaev |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 23-11-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| -112 | Vegas Odds | +102 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Brian Kelleher | vs | Kevin Natividad |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 21-11-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
Thiago Moises | vs | Jalin Turner |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
1/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| | | |
| Andre Muniz | vs | Bartosz Fabinski |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 19-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| +147 | Vegas Odds | -157 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| | | |
| Viviane Araujo | vs | Montana De La Rosa |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| -175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| | | |
Alexandr Romanov | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 17-7-1 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
| Cole Smith | vs | Hunter Azure |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| | Knockouts | |
| | Subs | |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| | |
