We’ve examined Weighted On-Base Average minus Expected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA-xwOBA) for hitters previously. It works well for pitchers also. Someone with a higher xwOBA than wOBA indicates a pitcher who’s been lucky with balls in play. A higher wOBA means they’ve had poor luck. We’re already starting to see streaks change in both directions. Keep an eye on discounts available and potential pitfalls coming.

Here are the pitchers due for some positive regression if they continue pitching the same way (100 PA min).

  • Zach Eflin is an interesting name to see at the top of this leaderboard. He’s certainly had ups and downs in 2020. His stuff is good. The results are just sporadic. For me, he’s a streamer/DFS option in the right match up. Not a hold.
  • The numbers under the hood continue to check out for Luis Castillo . Regression is coming at some point. Maybe kick the tires on whoever has him rostered in your league with season-long trade deadlines approaching.
  • I wonder if Josh Lindblom is a road warrior for our purposes. Miller Park is rather unfriendly to pitchers. Keep an eye on him at Detroit next week if anyone dropped him impatiently.
  • We aren’t getting the Gerrit Cole we expected so far. The offspeed stuff is still nasty and the strikeouts are there. His fastball isn’t getting by hitters at the moment, however, with a 25.2% 2020 Whiff% (down from 2019’s 37.6%). Plenty have pointed out his 2019 started with some bumps, as well. Only he has far less time to turn it around.

The luckier pitchers with a higher xwOBA (100 PA min).

  • The other shoe has started to fall for guys like Brad Keller and Alex Cobb . Their respective teams will need to keep running them out there and the numbers will catch up to them.
  • A groundball machine like Dallas Keuchel will always end up on this list when he’s at his best. Just know things could go sideways for him if he can’t keep the ball in the infield.
  • Chad Kuhl is someone who we should be monitoring. He has a good slider and can bring some heat with the fastball. His strikeouts have dipped lately. Perhaps aggressive contact can help explain both. If the Ks come back while maintaining the ratios, he deserves consideration.
  • After ditching his very hittable four-seamer, Corbin Burnes is enjoying a mini breakout. He replaced it with a sinker and a cutter. It may be a matter of time before hitters and scouts catch up to him. That’s been a challenge with COVID restrictions but should become easier as the season goes.