We get the biggest UFC card of the year Saturday night, featuring three (3!) title fights. That makes for a really interesting dynamic in DFS. It’s safer than ever to stack since plenty will. I’d even consider a double stack with of the two men’s title fights. As always, finding the dogs that pay is crucial. They five rounders will be heavily owned, so that’s a possible pivot. Without further ado, let’s make some holiday bonuses.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington | 8900/7300 | - | Stackability: Safe | -185/ +160 | +399/+485 | Say what you will about Colby, but his shtick has made this the most anticipated fight of the year. Both are great wrestlers, if different in their goals. Usman is a true power wrestler who looks to smoother you all fight. Covington is a rinse and repeat grinder that just knows how to keep opponents off balance. Neither seems likely to happen. Covington's striking is all about efficiency and lacks power. Usman has power but lacks technique. Such a great clash of styles. This is stackable for the wrestling that's likely to occur and five rounds of stats. The winner will be on GPPs. |
Expensive | Amanda Nunes | 9200 | Germaine de Randamie | Safe | #N/A | #N/A | Everything being said about GDR was said ahead of Nunes fight with Holly Holm. Nunes is the greatest female fighter of all time by a large measure and is fighting in the golden age of women's MMA. She should wrestle GDR into dust but also has the power striking to finish things. |
| Marlon Moraes | 9000 | Jose Aldo | Somewhat-Safe | -190 | +129 | The reason Moraes draws the somewhat safe tag is how well Aldo slows fights and limits scoring opportunities. Magic Marlon is still going to land more effectively and is capable of knocking out anyone. | |
| Petr Yan | 9400 | Urijah Faber | Somewhat-Safe | -500 | -118 | Yan is about to become a household name at Faber's expense. The narrative here is that the UFC isn't handing Faber any more cupcake match ups if he wants to stay active. Yan is a stylistic nightmare for the older Faber. | |
| Geoff Neal | 9100 | Mike Perry | Moderate | -230 | +128 | If Neal can KO Frank Camacho he can KO anybody. Perry isn't hard to hit these days. The quick turn around after his war with Luque is fairly surprising, too. Can't seem Perry lasting in this one. | |
| Matt Brown | 9300 | Ben Saunders | Moderate | -335 | -195 | Brown is a warrior who puts it all on the line. That style has put a ton of mileage on his body (and chin). Still, Saunders is equally shopworn with a failing chin. Purely a GPP play. | |
Mid-Range | Max Holloway | 8900 | Alexander Volkanovski | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | Max is DK royalty when not fighting clamshell Frankie Edgar. Even in a loss he could support this price, which is crazy to even write. I think he has the gas in the tank to take care of the very tough Volk, though. This will be a fun fight. |
| Ketlen Vieira | 8800 | Irene Aldana | Somewhat-Safe | -175 | +450 | Vieira is one of the best wrestlers in the division. She has out wrestled a who's who of strong wrestlers. Aldana can struggle against good grapplers. Her pace isn't the best for scoring, so it's more of a cash option. | |
| Ian Heinisch | 8400 | Omari Akhmedov | Moderate | -130 | +285 | The poster boy for grit gets a tough fight for his style. Akhmedov does the same things well. It's not a great DK play. | |
| Chase Hooper | 8300 | Daniel Teymur | Moderate | -120 | +165 | Hooper will look bad on the feet but if it hits the mat Teymur is lost. That's Hooper's bread and butter. It has to come early in the fight to pay on DK unless things go back and forth on the mat. | |
| Kai Kara-France | 8500 | Brandon Moreno | Moderate | -165 | +426 | KKF has slick striking and comes out strong. Moreno is hittable and starts slow. That's usually a good recipe for success. | |
| Viviane Araujo | 8600 | Jessica Eye | Moderate | -175 | +275 | Araujo is getting fast tracked in the UFC. She's seasoned from other promotion title fights so that makes sense. She could steamroll Eye if she's at her best. | |
| Oskar Piechota | 8000 | Punahele Soriano | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +165 | Piechota is a tough challenge. He's in phenomenal shape and strikes well, plus he's a BJJ black belt. His recent loses are to solid fighters. | |
| Punahele Soriano | 8200 | Oskar Piechota | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +231 | Soriano is maybe getting set up with a winnable fight. He's a wildcard after a mediocre DWTNCS performance. | |
Pay-Downs | Alexander Volkanovski | 7500 | Max Holloway | Moderate | +155 | +525 | Volk excels at executing gameplans his great coaches put together. It takes a perfect performance to beat Max as Dustin Poirier showed. He's a live dog, but the most useful thing is that Holloway's opponents easily pass 100 SS to match his pace. A 50 point floor at $7500 is nuts. |
| Brandon Moreno | 7700 | Kai Kara-France | Moderate | +145 | +340 | Moreno is a tough fighter to back due to lack of consistency. He's also a slow starter, while KKF is the opposite. His wrestling is what makes him an interesting play, especially in cash. | |
| Irene Aldana | 7400 | Ketlen Vieira | Moderate | +155 | +606 | The winner of this is in the title picture. The UFC is fond of Aldana and would love it to be her. She has the boxing to beat anyone. She would have to have improved her takedown defense to keep the stronger Vieira at bay. | |
| Omari Akhmedov | 7800 | Ian Heinisch | Moderate | +110 | +430 | Akhmedov and Heinisch do similar things. Omari has found something late in his career. That's always a bit suspect. Not sure he has the strength edge here, though. It's a close fight and there aren't many live dogs. | |
| Daniel Teymur | 7900 | Chase Hooper | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +251 | Teymur has the striking advantage, clearly. His only appeal is if only a couple dogs come through. | |
| Germaine de Randamie | 7000 | Amanda Nunes | Risky | +260 | +441 | GDR has some of the best kickboxing in women's MMA. She could win a fight from distance. It's a long shot, though. | |
| Ben Saunders | 6900 | Matt Brown | Risky | +275 | +395 | People underestimate Saunders because he gets KO'd often. He doesn't look bad prior to the KO and is still a fairly dangerous striker. Especially to the body, where Brown has a developed problem. There's also an outside chance at a sub from the lengthy Saunders. | |
| Jessica Eye | 7600 | Viviane Araujo | Risky | +155 | +670 | Eye could be too much too soon for Araujo. She's a veteran and decent all around. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Holloway -175, Aruajo -175, Nunes -320
Favorite Props: Neal ITD +128, Hooper via SUB +185, Heinisch/Akhmedov goes to DEC -170
Live Dogs: Covington, Volkanovski, Aldana, Akhmedov, Teymur, Saunders, Moreno
Stats & Picks:
| Kamaru Usman | vs | Colby Covington |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Loading... | vs | Alexander Volkanovski |
| Loading... | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record | Record: 20-1-0 | |
| 10 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (55%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| Loading... | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Loading... | vs | Germaine de Randamie |
| Loading... | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record | Record: 9-3-0 | |
| 13 KO/TKO (72%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| Loading... | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Marlon Moraes | vs | Jose Aldo |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 22-6-1 | Record | Record: 28-5-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (61%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Petr Yan | vs | Urijah Faber |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 35-10-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 17 SUBMISSIONS (49%) |
| -500 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Geoff Neal | vs | Mike Perry |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (85%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -230 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Ketlen Vieira | vs | Irene Aldana |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| -175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Ian Heinisch | vs | Omari Akhmedov |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-4-1 |
| 4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (37%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (26%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Matt Brown | vs | Ben Saunders |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 23-16-0 | Record | Record: 22-12-2 |
| 13 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Chase Hooper | vs | Daniel Teymur |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 8-0-1 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Brandon Moreno | vs | Kai Kara-France |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 15-5-1 | Record | Record: 20-7-0 (1 NC) |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jessica Eye | vs | Viviane Araujo |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 14-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Punahele Soriano | vs | Oskar Piechota |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-1 |
| 3 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |