A lackluster card lost one of it’s better fighters in Mosvar Evloev Thursday when his fight was canceled. That leaves eleven fights with a lot of unknowns. The easy way to gain leverage is with one of the Chinese underdogs in the main of co-main, both of whom are live. Leave plenty of salary on the table here, as well. Lineups lock overnight, so be careful.

 
 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Jessica Andrade vs Weili Zhang
8700/7500
-
Stackability: Safe
-165/ +155
+145/+450
Andrade is super talented and tough as nails. Her wrestling is unmatched by most women. The whole in her game is striking defense. This fight likely comes down to how well Zhang defends the takedown early on. She's pretty strong for the weight class so I can see her having success there and getting off on the feet. That will make for a very entertaining second half of this title fight. It's a fine cash stack with the loser likely to score well.
        
Expensive
Kai Kara-France9100Mark De La RosaSafe-210+335This feels like a softball for KKF on familiar turf for the kickboxer. De La Rosa is a submission specialist that can't get fights to the ground against any decent opponent. That makes him a punching bag here.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos9200Jingliang LiModerate-260+100dos Santos knows how to finish a fight. He's proved doubters wrong time and time again in the octagon. This is tall task against the gritty Li, though. There's not many options that can win ITD so we're stuck playing him.
Khadis Ibragimov9300Da Un JungModerate-250+105 
Damir Ismagulov9000Thiago MoisesRisky-185+485The gameplan for Ismagulov is to emulate Beneil Dariush's pressure in his victory over Moises. Easy to say, much more dificult to do. Still, that probably involves a heavy dose of wrestling.
        
Mid-Range
Derrick Krantz8000Kenan SongSomewhat-Safe-110+185Krantz can throw heaters, that's for sure. The UFC owed him a fight for taking on Vincente Luque as a late replacement. This is a decent one for him.
Anthony Hernandez8800Jun Yong ParkModerate-145+159?We did not get the performance many expected from Hernandez in his UFC debut loss. That can happen in debut's. It will be interesting to see if he's more comfortable this time out. He hits hard and has BJJ.
Danaa Batgerel8500Heili AlatengModerate+100+245?This fight could feature some fireworks on a card that needs it. Danaa is a tough dude that shown an ability to eat shots at the lower level. That's a concern as he moves up in competition but may serve him well here.
Andre Soukhamthath8600Su MudaerjiModerate-150+200Soukhamthath is a skilled martial artist that's a poor fighter, if that makes sense. He lacks fight IQ and make questionable in fight decisions. Nevertheless, he's a favorite for good reason.
Mizuki Inoue8300Yanan WuSomewhat-Risky-135+395Inoue is better on the feet and the mat. She should have an easy time with Wu. A finish isn't guaranteed, which makes her prices a questionable value.
Lara Procopio8400Karol RosaSomewhat-Risky+100+445If Procopio can get to work on a submission it will be trouble for Rosa, who's lost 2 of her last 5 via sub. Whether that pays as a DK play will depend on the grappling that gets her there.
        
Pay-Downs
Jingliang Li7000Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosModerate+240+515Li is fighting on his home turf and good at getting to the judges. That's a scary combo in China. He's the better wrestler and could look to avoid the exchanges the dos Santos has scored so many KOs in. A win at $7K is big here.
Jun Yong Park7400Anthony HernandezModerate+135+292Park is yet another well rounded Korean. He gets a little lazy in the grappling at times, which could cause him trouble here. Outside of that he's likely the better technician and an interesting dog with a shot at a decision.
Thiago Moises7200Damir IsmagulovSomewhat-Risky+170+470We have a tale of two fighters in Moises' UFC debut loss and follow up drubbing of Kurt Holobough. Is Ismagulov appreciably better than Holobough? I say no since he only looked average vs Joel Alvarez. Should Moises' arc continue upward he's a great dog play.
Heili Alateng7700Danaa BatgerelSomewhat-Risky-110+183Alateng should get the chance to test Danaa's chin. He has some power so that makes him an interesting DK play, for sure.
Karol Rosa7800Lara ProcopioRisky-120+505Rosa is a tough fighter and teammate of Andrade. She tends to be involved in finishes both for and agaisnt, so this is a good fight to target.
Su Mudaerji7600Andre SoukhamthathRisky+140+475We've seen Soukhamthath make plenty of bad decisions in his career. Standing and trading with the dangerous Su could be the latest.

Example Lineups

Cash Plays: Andrade/Zhang stack, Kara-France, Inoue, Ibragimov

(Sample lineup)

 

GPP Plays: dos Santos or Li, Krantz, Alateng, Procopio, Moises, Mudaerji

(Sample lineup)

 

Top Bets

Favorite Bets: Kara-France -210, Li + 240, Moises +170

Favorite Props: Procopio via SUB +560, Inoue ITD +395, Krantz ITD +185, Li via DEC +450

Live Dogs: Zhang, Li, Park, Mudaerji, Moises, Alateng, Rosa

 

Stats & Picks:

Jessica AndradevsWeili Zhang
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 20-6-0RecordRecord: 19-1-0
7 KO/TKO (35%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (47%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (35%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (37%)
-165Vegas Odds+155
5/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

 

Jingliang Livs
Elizeu dos Santos
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 16-5-0RecordRecord: 21-5-0
14 KO/TKO (67%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (38%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)
+240Vegas Odds-260
5/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Kai Kara-FrancevsMark De La Rosa
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 19-7-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 11-2-0
9 KO/TKO (47%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (9%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (16%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (55%)
-210Vegas Odds+190
8/10Lineup Pool1/10

 

Kenan SongvsDerrick Krantz
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 14-5-0RecordRecord: 24-11-0
7 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (43%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (43%)Subs11 SUBMISSIONS (48%)
+100Vegas Odds-110
3/10Lineup Pool6/10

 

Yanan WuvsMizuki Inoue
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 13-5-0
6 KO/TKO (60%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (69%)
+125Vegas Odds-135
2/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Jun Yong ParkvsAnthony Hernandez
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 10-3-0RecordRecord: 7-1-0
4 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (29%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (57%)
+135Vegas Odds-145
4/10Lineup Pool4/10

 

Su MudaerjivsAndre Soukhamthath
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 10-4-0RecordRecord: 13-7-0
8 KO/TKO (89%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (62%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)
+140Vegas Odds-150
4/10Lineup Pool4/10

 

Da Un JungvsKhadis Ibragimov
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 8-0-0
8 KO/TKO (80%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
+230Vegas Odds-250
1/10Lineup Pool7/10

 

Damir IsmagulovvsThiago Moises
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 18-2-0RecordRecord: 12-3-0
9 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (25%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-185Vegas Odds+170
4/10Lineup Pool5/10

 

Heili AlatengvsDanaa Batgerel
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 12-7-1RecordRecord: 6-1-0
4 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (50%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
-110Vegas Odds+100
4/10Lineup Pool4/10

 

Karol RosavsLara Procopio
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 11-3-0RecordRecord: 6-0-0
4 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (17%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-120Vegas Odds+100
4/10Lineup Pool4/10