UFC Fight Night 148: Thompson vs. Pettis

We’re getting another Fight Night card this week. Until the UFC figures out that quantity does not equal quality, this is our MMA DFS landscape. As usual with a Fight Night, we know less about some of these fighters. Keep that in mind building lineups. Skills development isn’t linear.

Case for Thompson: “Wonderboy” is the pinnacle of the karate style in MMA. He’s hard to hit, always just out of your reach but steps in to somehow quickly connect simultaneously. He’s never been knocked out, nor submitted, and is pretty tough to take down.

Case for Pettis: There’s one gear for Pettis most nights and that’s forward. He’ll eat your shots to land his. The nickname “Showtime” is fitting as he’s put on some truly entertaining bouts.

The Play: Pettis isn’t drawing dead here, he can catch any fighter with a wobbling shot under the right circumstance. I just don’t think it’s very likely. Wonderboy is the best at what he does with a now you see me, now you don’t style. That makes him the probable winner in a decision. A pretty surprising +120 ITD prop also shows people aren’t sleeping on his unconventional power.

Case for Blaydes: Aside from two losses to alien Francis Nganou, Blaydes has had his way with the heavyweight division. He puts out an aggressive wrestling attack that is rarer at the weight and exhausting for the typical heavyweight to deal with. He isn’t one dimensional either, utilizing a long frame and top control to strike with accuracy.

Case for Willis: The way to describe Willis’ style is cautious. He’s an accurate striker, with some power, but only on favorable terms. The biggest problem for analysis here is that he hasn’t fought anyone. In the UFC he’s been handed tin cans and a washed-up Mark Hunt. This is an enormous leap in competition.

The Play: I’m all over Blaydes in this one. His $9000 price tag is really stomachable. Willis is a good athlete and could cause Blaydes to work but the big man is more than capable of staying after it. Should Blaydes get on top of Willis a finish is probable.

Case for Makdessi: Makdessi offers some very tight striking, with an elite 5.5 strikes landed per minute. He’s also elite at avoiding strikes with a 71% striking defense. He’s had a hard time finding the finish lately, though.

Case for Pinedo: We’ve got a big unknown in Pinedo. Would the UFC be throwing him in with Makdessi if they thought he would drown? He dominated his only UFC opponent. Maybe there’s something here.

The Play: Pinedo is an interesting pivot for multi-lineup GPP builders. Outside of that Makdessi is too good of a striker to roster many Pinedo shares. The pace should also make up for a possible decision win.

Case for Formiga: It may not be the most entertaining style, but Formiga knows how to maintain control of a fight. His grappling is elite and he’s savvy enough to avoid mixing it up on the feet.

Case for Figueiredo: A rare flyweight with stopping power, Figueiredo has 8 KO’s to his credit. Three of which came in the UFC against legit names. The 15-0 record isn’t padded either. He made his rounds on the Brazil circuit prior to four UFC fights.

The Play: I have concerns with a fighter like Formiga who will stay focused on limiting his opponent's output. That said. Figueiredo could be a title contended and walk right through Formiga’s usual tricks. There’s lethal power in his hands.

Case for Pena: Sporting a funky fro’ Pena goes by the moniker “Violent Bob Ross.” Top 10 handle right there. He’s a monster of a lightweight at 6’3”. That’s hard for your average lightweight to deal with. His size allows him to deploy a strong wrestling base. He showed finishing ability before getting to the UFC.

Case for Peterson: You aren’t going to have to look for a fight with Peterson. He’s coming to bang. He throws a ridiculous amount of punches without the best accuracy. He won’t be backing down from Pena in this one.

The Play: The odds for this fight are very out of whack. Pena’s prospect status continues to have him overrated. The line is on its way down, though. Either fighter could score a finish, so I’ll take the discount on Peterson with a little bit of Pena hedging.

Case for Barber: A hot prospect in the women’s strawweight division, Barber had a successful UFC debut. She showed some rough edges in that fight but her talent carried her to a second-round stoppage with relative ease.

Case for Aldrich: She’s a gritty striker without much wrestling. Her poise may help her survive, for a time.

The Play: Unless Barber strikes to outstrike Aldrich it should be a fairly easy day at the office. I don’t mean to disrespect JJ, who’s a veteran fighter, Barber is just that much better of an athlete.

Case for Mitchell: Eight submissions in ten wins tells you what his strength is. He has trouble with opponents wrestling, however.

Case for Moffett: Moffett is also submission threat, but he’s a tad more well rounded. He can wrestle and strike a bit.

The Play: Unless Moffett gets sloppy in Mitchell’s guard or leaves his neck out he should have the better base of skills to earn a win.

Case for Vera: Vera was somewhat of a prospect at one time. He’s become an infuriating fighter to back. Vera’s a generalist with some power. The UFC got him back on a win streak with a couple of tin cans recently.

Case for Saenz: The best thing Saenz may have going for him is that he’s not Marlon Vera. Is that really a good reason to back a fighter? He has the wrestling and gritty style to be a headache and give himself a shot at a decision.

The Play: It feels like another offering to Vera’s win streak but Saenz isn’t a pushover. His wrestling could be trouble for Vera. I don’t love the fight as a whole and probably use Saenz as a paydown here and there.

Case for Davis: Davis relies on a wrestling attack when she fights smart. She’s been around the block and has 19-8 record to show for it. When she’s on she’s trouble for anyone. There are nights she just can’t get out of her own way, though.

Case for Maia: A former Invicta champ, she may be better than what we saw in her debut loss. She has a win over Roxi Modafferi, so it’s not like she can’t handle a quality opponent.

The Play: We need to be careful not to place to much stock in the transitive property and assume that since Davis beat Carmouche who beat Maia, Davis beats Maia. They are different fighters with different strengths. I like Maia as a GPP dart some.

Case for Markos: Markos is a tough chick. She has a heavy right hand and grinding wrestling. She can’t seem to get out of her own way half of the time though.

Case for Hill: “Overkill” is one of the busier female strawweights. She’s a superb athlete and also has stellar striking defense. What’s held her back is her defensive wrestling. She’s a bit lost on the mat.

The Play: Grappler vs striker, both inconsistent fighters. I’m a fan of Angie Hill so she’s who I’ll be playing. That doesn’t make her the right call, but it’s as good a reason as any in this coin flip. I don’t mind either fighter in a lineup that needs someone around $8K.

Case for MacDonald: Really the biggest thing in his corner is being an unknown. He’s a late replacement for Martin Day. He’s earned 3 submissions and KO’s apiece.

Case for Gutierrez: A debut loss to Brazilian veteran Raoni Barcelos isn’t a big deal for me. Gutierrez is a quality striker and solid athlete.

The Play: The betting on Gutierrez has been steady. He’s one of the better odds values on the card and sure to be chalky at $8300. I have a hair of apprehension anytime we get chalk against an unknown regional fighter (see: Alexander Hernandez), but he’s probably still a safe bet.

Case for Shelton: After a solid early TUF showing he couldn’t get in the UFC win column, losing to Alexandre Pantoja and Jarred Brooks. Both quality flyweights. He’s gone 2-1 since and remains someone with unfulfilled potential.

Case for Espinosa: It took Espinosa two auditions on DWTNCS to get his UFC call up. Both were finishes, however.

The Play: Both men offer some dangerous ground games, but Shelton can last 3 rounds where Espinosa shoots his shot early. If Shelton survives the first he’s likely to win a decision.

Cash Plays: 

(Thompson/Pettis stack, Blaydes, Makdessi, Gutierrez, Barber)

The main event is finally stackable, hallelujah. It’s not the greatest stack of all time, but we’ll take a dog that has some appeal for a change. Blaydes and Gutierrez are chalk locks.

GPP Plays:

(Figueiredo, Moffett, Peterson, Markos or Hill, Saenz, Maia, Shelton)

With one less fight than usual and some clear favorites, you’ll have to mix in a couple of differentiators.

Favorite Bets: Blaydes -245, Saenz +140, Barber -240

Favorite Props: Peterson ITD +470, Markos via SUB +1015, Figuiredo ITD +150

Live Dogs: Peterson, Saenz, Moffett, Maia, Markos, Pettis