UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith

We’ve got a great card on tap this weekend. Jon Jones is making up for lost time and defending his light heavyweight belt. We’re also getting the rare double title fight with Tyron Woodley taking on top contender Kamaru Usman. There’s a little bit of everything in this lineup: live dogs, heavy hitters, and submission artists.

Let’s set aside the PED conversation with Jones. It plays no role in fantasy scoring. He’s simply the best pound for pound fighter in UFC history and doing it in one of it’s toughest divisions long term. No fighter has become elite in every arena of MMA the way he has. His opponents are left looking silly as he takes two steps ahead every time we see him fight.

Anthony Smith’s best ability is durability. We’ve seen him absorb massive amounts of punishment while still firing back at his opponent. That’s not to say he’s someone that can’t be finished. Of his 13 losses, 8 came via KO. His takedown defense is also suspect at 46%.

Smith can make any fight a war. That’s unlikely to get him far against Jones. Bones Jones is perfectly content to pile up strikes from distance as your face turns into hamburger. The takedown will be there as well. We were reminded how good Jones is on the ground against Alexander Gustafsson. The only question in this one is does Jones score enough to be worth his $9600 price?

Tyron Woodley gets way less respect than most UFC champs. He’s not the most charismatic fighter. His 94% defense against the competition he’s fought is perhaps the best rank in the UFC. You better watch out for his right hand, too. A lower output comes with a risk-averse approach.

The main tool in Kamaru Usman’s bag is incredible wrestling. He can hold his own on the feet, but generally only employs his striking if it’s more optimal than wrestling (see his fight with Demian Maia). No one has had an answer for his athleticism and relentless takedowns yet.

The “yet” part is the key there. He’s never faced an athlete on Woodley’s level. There may not be more than a handful on Woodley level. Usman is probably on though. It’s going to be interesting to see who can bring their will to bear here. I think Woodley can defend enough takedowns to get the better of Usman on the feet. It’s a very close fight though.

The last time we saw Robbie Lawler he was shucking Rafael dos Anjos’ punches on a torn ACL. He lost that fight and had knee surgery. He’s been one of the best boxers the UFC has seen and 20 KOs back it up.

Pound for pound great Demetrius Johnson was traded to ONE Championship for Ben Askren. That tells you the level of Askren’s talent. He’s an Olympic level wrestler, who can end of fight with ground and pound.

The UFC isn’t taking it slow with their new guy. Lawler is a former champ and in every fight until the end. That said, the scales tip pretty heavily towards Askren and his wrestling. Lawler has gotten the better of other wrestlers by luring them into brawls. Askren isn’t likely to let that happen.

Tecia Torres didn’t earn the nickname “Tiny Tornado” for nothing. She throws with volume at dizzying speed. Sadly, she wasn’t blessed with much power in her punches and has to work towards decision wins. That’s not to say her fights aren’t highly entertaining.

Chinese import Weili Zhang has made the best of her two UFC fights. They were not high level opponents, though. She’s well rounded with nice all-around stats from those two bouts.

Zhang is jumping light years in competition. Torres has hung in there with the legends of this division. It’s hard to see Zhang succeeding where Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk couldn’t in finding the finish. If it goes to decision the more efficient Torres should see her hand raised.

Cody Garbrandt rocketed up the bantamweight division behind a highlight reel of knockouts. His speed is hard to match and the power is certainly there. Anyone that can take a decision off of Dominick Cruz is bonafide. Trading haymakers with T.J. Dillashaw has been his kryptonite.

It’s not that Pedro Munhoz isn’t a quality fighter. He has skills. He just isn’t a contender in my eyes. He’s bailed himself out of trouble more than once by landing a guillotine. But what a guillotine it is. I see him as a top 5 gatekeeper ultimately.

Garbrandt would be a much bigger favorite here if he weren’t coming off back to back KO losses to Dillashaw. My only hesitation, and it’s slight, is where will his confidence be after failing to reach the summit of the division. As long as he’s focused, this should be a fight he earns a KO in. Munhoz has fallen in love with his striking but doesn’t have fight ending power and only mediocre defense.

It’s been an odd career for Jeremy Stephens. Just as he builds a win streak and garners some attention things seem to go amiss. Most recently it was a body shot KO loss at the hands of Jose Aldo. We’ve seen that Aldo is far from washed up, however. Stephens hits harder than anyone in the division and his love of brawling has been reeled in a bit more recently.

Zabit Magomedsharipov is one of the buzziest names in MMA. That’ll happen for Dagestani fighters with potential. He’s looked great in the UFC, albeit against very low-level competition. He smothers opponents with wrestling and has accurate striking from range to keep them honest.

Stephens has spent a career being an underdog. He revels in toppling better-respected opponents with savage power. Zabit deserves to be favored with a huge edge in wrestling. As far as dogs go though, Stephens is one of the best to bet on.

Misha Cirkunov’s hype train was momentarily derailed after two straight KO losses. He managed to right the ship in his last fight against the mismatched Pat Cummins. His biggest strengths are highly efficient striking and a superb submission game.

Johnny Walker didn’t get to break a sweat his last time out so he volunteered his services when Ovince Saint Preux pulled out of the fight with Cirkunov. Walker has as many wins in the UFC as minutes elapsed in his fights (2). He’s big, strong, and unorthodox.

I give Walker immense credit for stepping in here. It’s a terrible matchup for him on paper. That won’t matter if he continues knocking his opponent out before the first ring girl has practically sat down. For multiple lineup builders, he’s a must play along with Cirkunov in other builds. The winner will likely be by finish.

Alejandro Perez may be 7-1-1 in the UFC, but many of those decisions were questionable wins. He’s a volume striker without great accuracy. He can struggle with wrestlers at times.

A submission loss to Aljamain Sterling is the only recent blemish on Cody Stamann’s record. That’s no big issue, Sterling is slick on the mat. Stamann is a busy fighter and wants to wear down opponents with his wrestling.

Where this fight takes place likely determines the winner. If Stamann gets in on Perez he can get him down and keep him there. If Perez can shirk some early takedowns he has a shot to win it on the feet. I tend to side with the wrestler in this type of clash, and I’m going to here. Perez can’t run from Stamann for long before things get to the clinch.

Diego Sanchez is clearly not normal. His brain isn't functioning properly at this point. A love for punishment at the end of his opponent's punches has caught up with him. The book on Sanchez was you weren’t likely to knock him out until getting KO’d in three of his last five fights. He’s still never been submitted.

Mickey Gall has five wins, all by rear naked choke. Only one has been against anyone that belonged in the octagon and that was Sage Northcutt. Even then, Northcutt never seemed ready for prime time as a young sensation. Gall has little to no striking to speak of. Though he’s reportedly been working it since his last loss.

The narrative here is clear. Sanchez has never been submitted and Gall only gets submissions. I favor Sanchez on the basis that he still has solid wrestling and doesn’t get sloppy on the ground. It won’t be a pretty affair. Sanchez only does ugly, though.

The UFC debut of Edmen Shahbazyan was slightly disappointing after he rattled off seven straight first-round KO’s prior. He went to his wrestling in dealing with the dangerous Darren Stewart. That shows smarts, but also a possible lack in confidence for his stand up.

Charles “Kid Dynamite” Byrd’s power has given way to grappling with his entrance into the UFC. He’s an accurate striker with solid striking defense. A 57% takedown defense is a concern.

The fighter with the better wrestling probably takes this one. Shahbazyan bet common opponent Darren Stewart, where Byrd lost to him on a comeback KO. I’d side with the finishing ability of Shahbazyan. It’s a close fight, though.

Gina Mazany isn’t much more than a stepping stone for other fighters. She can hit a takedown, but can’t defend them herself. Her striking isn’t much of a threat.

Macy Chiasson doesn’t have many fights under her belt, but her talent has flashed. She won the Ultimate Fighter handily. For someone so green she seems fairly well rounded. She’s most dangerous in the submission game.

Chiasson is a huge favorite in this one and rightfully so. Her most likely path to victory is a sub given that Mazany could land a takedown or give one up. Chiasson does have some pop on her punches, so I’d prefer and ITD bet if it weren’t minus odds.

Polyana Viana burst onto the UFC scene in a win on her home turf two fights ago. That was over a drastically overmatched Maia Stevenson, however. She didn’t find J.J. Aldrich as easy of a proposition next time out, dropping a decision with only one takedown landed.

Most of the women’s division in the UFC are in constant need of depth. Hannah Cifers is a fighter who can hang around in the promotion for that reason. She’s ok on the feet.

The UFC is bringing Cifers as a stepping stone for another prospect here. She could give Viana trouble on the feet for a time. Eventually, the takedown should come and a submission may not be far behind.

Cash Plays:

Jones, Askren, Garbrandt, Torres

Yet another main event that isn’t stackable for me. Askren is a solid favorite. Garbrandt should win this fight in his sleep. Torres is better at winning decisions than almost anyone.

GPP Plays:

Chiasson, Viana, Woodley, Walker/Cirkunov, Shahbazyan, Stephens

There’s dogs a plenty on this card. Mainly you want people like Stephens or Walker/Cirkunov with the shot at a finish.

Favorite Bets: Askren -275, Stephens +205, Sanchez +255

Favorite Props: Garbrandt by KO +182, Torres by DEC +130, Cirkunov ITD +176, Chiasson by SUB +160

Live Dogs: Stephens, Cirkunov, Torres, Cirkunov, Sanchez