UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum (Live From: Melbourne, Australia)

If last week's theme was close to call fights, this week is the absolute opposite. Very few dogs have a reasonable shot to win and the odds reflect it. Our main event of the night between Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum will be for the middleweight championship belt. The card is taking place in Melbourne, Australia, so we need to be aware of local fighters versus the ones who had to travel. Home town judging isn't a huge problem down under, but it's something to keep in mind.

Update: Robert Whittaker came down with abdominal pain overnight. He's gone into surgery and neither he nor Kelvin Gastelum will accumulate points. 

Kelvin Gastelum $7300          vs.            Robert Whittaker $8900

16-3-0                                                        20-4-0

6 KO/TKO, 4 Subs                                    9 KO/TKO, 5 Subs

Win Streak: 2                                            Win Streak: 9

Odds: +195                                               -235

The current run Robert Whittaker is on is even more impressive when viewed through the lens of a brutally tough middleweight division. That culminated with the two wars he most recently went through with Yoel Romero. Whittaker is a complete fighter with an incredible will. He also brings a great striking volume at 12.05 attempts per minute and the occasional takedown.

Kelvin Gastelum is very liked underrated for all the great fighters above him in the division. He’s a patient striker with decent power. Wrestling has become less important to his plan of attack, but it’s still in his tool bag.

Bobby Knuckles is just better than Gastelum in too many areas. I really can’t see him succeeding where Romero failed twice in a row. One underrated aspect is that Whittaker will be well prepared for Gastelum’s southpaw stance coming off fights with fellow lefty Romero. Lean heavily on Whittaker in lineups with five potential rounds. I’ll put in a couple builds with Gastelum as a pivot, since Whittaker does get hit more than you’re comfortable with and it’s possible the tough schedule has worn on him.

Israel Adesanya $9600           vs.            Anderson Silva $6600

15-0-0                                                        34-8-0

13 KO/TKO, 0 Subs                                 22 KO/TKO, 4 Subs

Win Streak: 15                                         Win Streak: 1

Odds: -650                                               +475

Israel Adesanya is a name that should absolutely be on your watchlist. He’s made a successful transition to MMA from being a kickboxing star. Izzy’s on the fast track to title contention.

This is one of the last time’s we’ll get to see MMA living legend Anderson Silva in action. He’s fallen pretty far from the unbeatable height of his career, though. He was never a high output striker and there’s only the occasional submission.

The optics of this fight seem to be getting Adesanya a name to build on. I wouldn't completely rule out the Spider being able to lay a trap for the younger, more aggressive Adesanya. There’s just so little sense in using Silva in a GPP lineup. Izzy is almost a lock with good potential for a high number of strikes.

Rani Yahya $8000          vs.           Ricky Simon $8200

26-9-0                                              14-1-0

0 KO/TKO, 20 Subs                        5 KO/TKO, 2 Subs

Win Streak: 3                                  Win Streak: 7

Odds: -105                                      -115

Rani Yahya looks to do one thing, and one thing only. Submit you. He doesn’t even try very hard to oppose wrestling. It’s easier letting you do the work of getting the fight to the ground for him. He’s damn good at getting you to tap with twenty of his twenty-six career victories via submission.

Up and comer Simon is an absolute warrior. What he lacks in technical proficiency is made up for by heart. He looks to dominate opponents with tenacious wrestling. Ricky isn’t afraid to swing from the hip and lands with power, as well.

Simon could have the kind of dominant top game that has been the one path to victory against Yahya, who has gassed in later rounds. As a big Simon fan, it pains me to pick against him. He’s not drawing dead by any means, it’s just too dangerous wrestling into Yahya’s clutches. The price on either fighter is one of the few I find palatable. There’s also a decent chance at a quick finish for Yahya. I’ll use some of each, with a bit more Rani.

Montana De La Rosa $8800          vs.          Nadia Kassem $7400

9-4-0                                                               5-0-0

0 KO/TKO, 7 Subs                                        4 KO/TKO, 0 Subs

Win Streak: 3                                                Win Streak: 5

Odds: -260                                                    +220

Montana De La Rosa clearly leans on a grappling attack. She’s fought some solid names but lost to most of them. It’s always hard to say how much that experience counts for when weighed against the losses.

This will be Nadia Kassem’s second UFC bout. In her debut win against Alex Chambers, she showed solid kickboxing but was taken down multiple times. She’s an Aussie, which is a big part of why she’s on this card at all.

This could be a bit of a sloppy fight. The grappling concerns for Kassem are a red flag. De La Rosa also has the height and reach advantage. I’ll side with the more experienced De La Rosa, but don’t have a ton of interest in rostering either fighter.

Jimmy Crute $8300         vs.          Sam Alvey $7900

9-0-0                                                 33-11-0

3 KO/TKO, 3 Subs                          19 KO/TKO, 3 Subs

Win Streak: 9                                  Loss Streak: 1

Odds: -135                                      +115

We got a mixed bag from prospect Jimmy Crute in his UFC debut victory over Paul Craig. He dominated the fight, as he should have, but showed some endurance issues. He failed multiple times getting the finish before finally locking a submission in late.

Stepping up again on late notice is the ever dependable southpaw Sam Alvey. He’s a solid UFC fighter, despite a low output and marginal entertainment value. He does pack a punch if you get within his range.

This is a winnable fight for Crute. I do have some concerns that the raw fighter may rush into one of Alvey’s heavy left hands, though. I’ll use a good amount of both fighters since Crute will likely bring the same aggression we’ve seen to the ring. It could be a quick night for one of these guys.

Devonte Smith $8600            vs.         Dong Hyun Ma $7600

9-1-0                                                      16-8-3

8 KO/TKO, 1 Subs                                4 KO/TKO, 6 Subs

Win Streak: 5                                        Win Streak: 3

Odds: -250                                            +210

Devonte Smith is announcing his presence with authority. He’s scored two fast KO’s in his DWTNCS and UFC debut. The competition level leaves something to be desired, though. He has a remarkable 76” reach for someone who’s 5’9”.

Analysts are happy his opponent is now going by Dong Hyun Ma to differentiate himself from the other Dong Hyun Kim. The Maestro has given us some very entertaining UFC fights. He’s perhaps too willing to slug it out at times. Especially given that his wrestling is superior to his striking.

So much depends on what Hyun Ma’s gameplan is and if he can stick to it. Getting into a brawl with Smith is a recipe for disaster. I want to trust that he’ll attempt to execute a wrestling attack and we’ll get to see what kind of takedown defense Smith actually has. This feels closer to a coin flip than the current odds indicate. Both guys make sense at their prices. Smith has one of the best combinations of salary and ITD odds.

Shane Young $9100         vs.         Austin Arnett $7100

12-4-0                                              16-5-0

6 KO/TKO, 4 Subs                          6 KO/TKO, 6 Subs

Win Streak: 1                                  Win Streak: 1

Odds: -335                                     +248

The only recent blemish on Shane Young’s record is a short notice decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski. That’s not something to hold against him. He finishes fights well, but all four losses have come via decision.

Austin Arnett is a game opponent, but probably a fringe fighter. UFC Matchmakers haven’t done him any favors as a stepping stool to up and comers. He doesn’t really have finishing power at this weight either.

I like Young’s paths to victory. He could earn a finish and might hold a hometown edge if it goes to the scorecards. A decision win probably doesn’t support his price, however. Arnett isn’t the worst option if you’re stuck at $7100 on an outside chance he outstrikes Young to a decision.

Kai Kara-France $9000      vs.       Raulian Paiva $7200

18-7-0                                              18-1-0

9 KO/TKO, 3 Subs                          3 KO/TKO, 3 Subs

Win Streak: 6                                  Win Streak: 12

Odds: -300                                      +250

Most of Kara-France’s losses as a pro came at age 21 or younger (he went pro at 18). He only has two losses in the last four years, one of which was to Alexandre Pantoja on TUF 24. He finally got the call from the UFC in his last fight and didn’t disappoint. Despite his smaller stature, he’s a gamer, bringing excellent quickness along with power. Expect him to become a UFC mainstay on the overseas cards.

Raulian Paiva gets his UFC shot after taking a split decision on DWTNCS. He showed aggressive striking, but not much defense. Absorbing 7 strikes per minute like he did in that one is playing with fire.

You can’t get in the ring with Kara-France and hope to win wild exchanges. He should land plenty of counters in addition to his normal offense. There’s a good shot he earns a KO, but even without a finish his volume should support $9000. Use him liberally.

Teruto Ishihara $6800        vs.        Kyung Ho Kang $9400

10-6-2                                             14-8-0

8 KO/TKO, 0 Subs                          2 KO/TKO, 10 Subs

Loss Streak: 2                                 Loss Streak: 1

Odds: +335                                     -420

Teruto Ishihara is a frustrating fighter to follow. There’s talent there, but his only path to victory these days seems to be a one-shot KO.

Kyung Ho Kang, like many Korean fighters, bases his game around wrestling. That couples well with plus size and reach for the weight class.

The stats jump off the page in favor of Ho Kang. An excellent 2.29 takedowns landed per 15 minutes coming at a 66% success rate look extremely bankable against Ishihara’s atrocious 33% takedown defense rate. Kang’s the play here, likely by submission.

Lando Vannata $9300        vs.       Marcos Mariano $6900

9-3-2                                               6-4-0

4 KO/TKO, 4 Subs                         2 KO/TKO, 1 Subs

Draw Streak: 1                               Win Streak: 1

Odds: -340                                     +280

Lando Vannata is apparently the MMA version of the 2018 Browns. He has talent but keeps ending up in draws. A willingness to brawl despite advantages on the mat is very Hue Jackson. In fairness, Lando has fought very solid competition in the UFC.

Marcos Mariano is kind of a tin can. He’s an OK striker with some reach. That’s about it.

If Vannata doesn’t smell the roses and wrestle his way to a win it will be monumentally foolish. He’s on the UFC roster bubble and needs a victory. Hopefully, that keeps him focused in this one. At $9300 he’s not someone I have much trust in. If you’re building multiple lineups, his upside requires some shares.

Callan Potter $7500        vs.         Jalin Turner $8700

17-7-0                                             7-4-0

6 KO/TKO, 10 Subs                       6 KO/TKO, 1 Subs

Win Streak: 1                                 Loss Streak: 1

Odds: +215                                    -325

Debuting against Vincente Luque on short notice is particularly cruel. Jalin Turner did not last long against him. Throw that result out, Luque is a killer. Turner is long and fairly aggressive. He has a great ITD prop of -165.

Callan Potter is stepping up on two weeks notice. He has our thanks for rescuing the fight and taking a likely beating. When he’s faced UFC level competition in the past, he’s lost.

Turner is a great price at $8700 in what figures to be a quick striking based victory. Potter could pull a rabbit out of his hat for a submission, but that isn’t likely. Turner takes this one by KO.

Wuliji Buren    $7700           vs.     Jonathan Martinez $8500

11-6-0                                               9-2-0

1 KO/TKO, 4 Subs                          5 KO/TKO, 2 Subs

Loss Streak: 2                                Loss Streak: 1

Odds: +160                                     -185

Loses to Rolando Dy and Marlon Vera make Wuliji Buren a fighter on the UFC bubble. He’s a Pacific card only draw. Neither loss was all that bad, but you also can’t throw them out.

Jonathan Martinez acquitted himself fairly well in his short notice debut against Andre Soukhamthath, despite losing. He’s got decent kicks and showed toughness.

Buren will look to wrestle his way to victory in this one. I don’t think he’s dominant enough to keep Martinez honest. A steady diet of kicks from the southpaw will probably lead Martinez to victory.

Cash plays: Either Whittaker-Gastelum stacked or punt with Silva, Ho Kang, Turner, Kara-France

It’s not a bad idea stacking the main event to free up salary here. If you don’t take that route, consider Silva’s basement floor price to open up the top range. Ho Kang, Turner, and Kara-France are the safer plays of the night.

GPP Plays: Yahya or Simon, Hyun Ma or Smith, Vannata, Martinez

Yahya submits you or quits, so it’s a great fight to have shares of. Hyun Ma is one of the few dogs I can see a path to victory for, but Smith probably knocks him out. Vannata’s high skill level/poor fight IQ gives him high upside with no floor.

Favorite Bets: Whittaker -245, Kara-France -300, Arnett +275

Favorite Props: Turner by KO -149, Yahya by sub +157, Ho Kang by sub +200

Live Dogs: Yahya, Alvey, Hyun Ma, Arnett