NASCAR DFS: AAA Texas 500 Track Breakdown

The middle race of the Round of 8 drops the green flag on Sunday at Texas. It’s the second time the Fort Worth track has held a Cup race this year with the last time being the last weekend in March. While it is a 1.5-mile track, it’s a not a cookie-cutter one with two different degrees of banking in the corners and it is a quad-oval instead of a tri-oval. Turns 1 & 2 are tilted at 20 degrees from the apron up to the wall and turns 3 & 4 are banked at 24 degrees giving the drivers a chance to really build speed throughout the lap until getting off the throttle just a touch on entrance of Turn 1. With the shape of the track and the banking on it, Texas is comparable to Kentucky and Charlotte in terms of similar races and tracks.

Texas hosted its first race in April 0f 1997 and since then has played host to 37 Cup races. As you’ll see in the table below, the winners have been pretty well spread out over that span with the Pole sitter only winning three times and none since 2013.

Starting Positions of Winners

This weekend, the track and NASCAR will be applying PJ1 traction compound to the upper grooves of the track to try and create a viable second racing groove rather than just having everyone at the bottom. Goodyear is also bringing new right-side tires to the track that should lay more rubber and run cooler which should help not only create another groove but also reduce the tire blowouts that are common here because of the heat and speeds generated by the smooth track surface.

Schedule:

Friday: 3:05 pm ET First Practice

             5:05 pm ET Final Practice

Saturday: 7:05 pm ET Qualifying (inspection to happen prior)

Sunday: 3:00 pm ET AAA Texas 500 (334 laps; Stages: 85-85-164)

Track Data

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Kevin Harvick at $10,400 on DK and $14,000 on FD

• He’s posted two wins here in the last five Fall races and four top-fives giving him a 2.6 average finish.
• Both of those wins came in the last two years while leading a combined 215 laps with 135 fastest laps.
• Harvick’s plan last week was to have a solid run at Martinsville and then capitalize this weekend at a great track for him and use the best average finish at intermediate tracks this year to his advantage.

Chase Elliott at $10,100 on DK and $12,500 on FD

• Elliott has never finished outside the top-10 in three Fall races at Texas with an average finish of 6.0 and a 14.3 PD mark in that span.
• In seven Cup races at Texas he has five top-10s and a 9.3 PD mark.
• After the part broke in the rear of his car at Martinsville, he’s a near win to advance spot and given his history, he could punch his ticket to Miami on Sunday in Fort Worth.

Kurt Busch at $9,000 on DK and $9,700 on FD

• Busch could get the Mr. Consistent moniker back this weekend with four top-10s in the last five Fall races here.
• He’s also posted eight top-10s in the last 10 races overall here including driving from 30^th to 9^th in the Spring race this year.
• Busch won at Kentucky, a similar track, and has four top-fives and seven top-10s in the 10 intermediate races in this package so it’s been a strong suite for him.

Jimmie Johnson at $8,600 on DK and $8,000 on FD

• Johnson has owned Texas. It’s that simple. I mean just look at his compiled stats.
• He’s won twice in the last five Fall races and four times in the last 10 races overall with six top-fives.
• One of those top-fives came in the Spring race this year when he was on the pole and he has had better speed lately than he did at that point of the season not to mention that five of his 10 intermediate races have ended with top-10s.

Erik Jones at $8,400 on DK and $9,500 on FD

• Jones has two top-10s and an 8.7 average finish in his three November Texas races in his career.
• In six Cup races overall at Texas Motor Speedway, Jones has three top-fives and four top-10s including finishing fourth here in March after starting 11^th.
• He has a very similar record to Chase Elliott but is quite a bit cheaper than him on both sites.

Kyle Larson at $9,200 on DK and $12,000 on FD is the Contrarian play

• We mentioned this the last time they raced at Texas, but Larson is either going to finish well or catch fire, and I don’t mean catching fire in a good way.
• He’s got a top-five and two top-10s in the last five November races here but has led nearly 15 laps a race and 17 fastest laps.
• At 1.5-mile tracks this year he’s got three top-fives and five top-10s in 10 of those race to this point.
• He’s also going to need a solid day in points to try and make the Championship 4 in a couple of weeks which ups his value somewhat.

Daniel Hemric at $6,300 on DK and $5,000 on FD is the Fade

• He doesn’t have much of a history here, but in March’s race he went backwards 26 spots.
• That’s not just a Texas thing as he’s gone backwards a ton at this distance as evidenced by his -14.2 PD mark and 24.3 average finish.
• He’s cheaper than your normal fade, but he warrants mentioning with his average starting spot of 10.0 at this distance and that can intrigue people for a cheap play, but stay away this week until he proves he can stick in that spot.

Last Five AAA Texas 500s

Top-20 Drivers at Last 10 Texas Races

Top-20 Drivers at Similar Races (Kentucky, Texas, Charlotte)

Team Averages at Texas (Since Feb. 2017)

Momentum

The 10 intermediate races that have happened this year are counted in this week’s momentum

Drivers

Team

Price Changes At Texas

DraftKings

FanDuel

Points Averages Over Last Five AAA Texas 500s

DraftKings

FanDuel

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race History, Momentum, Texas History, and Track Type History columns are ranked on average finish over those spans. The scoring ranks are ranked from highest to lowest scoring in those spans on each site.