Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California (just east of Los Angeles) plays host to the race this Sunday, the aptly named Auto Club 400. This is a relatively new track by NASCAR standards with it opening in 1997 for the first races here and in that time it has hosted 29 races wavering back and forth between one race and two races a year.

As far as layout is concerned, there is only one other track that is a copy of it in Michigan International Speedway with both being two-miles in length per lap and being classified as D-shaped Ovals because of their bowed out front-stretch. The track was originally partly-owned by Roger Penske and he played a pivotal role in it being built out west and the design of the track and grandstands. In fact, he specifically designed the D-shape in the track so that every seat would have a better view of the race than at a normal track, but I digress. The racing surface is very wide, even for a longer track, and can easily fit 4-5-wide for good portions of the front and back stretches making the racing quite exciting. The track is also one that allows for drivers to find multiple ways around the track in that the bottom and top grooves will be well-utilized but so will the middle ones as well. The turns are all banked at a fairly shallow 14 degrees of tilt making it not quite as fast as it’s sister track in Michigan but there will still be speeds of 180-plus MPH on Sunday. The racing surface is very old. It’s job is to eat and destroy tires and it’s quite good at its job. The surface is comparable to Atlanta and Chicagoland in terms of tracks that tire wear plays a big role.

With the track being two-miles per lap and the race being a 400-mile scheduled distance, there are 200 laps in the race which will reduce the possible laps led and fastest laps dominator points available on DraftKings with 150 total up for grabs and on FanDuel there are 120 laps led and laps completed points to earn across the whole of your lineups. As mentioned on the podcast this weekend, in 4-of-the-last-6 races at the track, two drivers have combined to lead 160-plus laps in a race. There have also been about the same number of drivers with double-digit position differential positively as there have been negative. Six-of-the-last-10 races here have been won by a driver starting inside the top-10 in the starting grid while four times a driver has started 14th or worse and won the race including three in four years that start P19, P24, and P22 and made it to victory lane. The last two races here have been won from the pole but the last time a driver won from the pole was March of 2008 and that was the first time that had ever happened at Auto Club Speedway.

One last note before we breakdown the Props Challenge questions and the drivers in the playbook. Qualifying was pretty much a bust. The final round so no driver take an actual time as all 12 failed to make it across the start/finish line for the start of their timed lap before the clock hit 0:00. That means their starting spots were determined by the order of their second-round runs meaning the first 12 spots aren’t the truest depiction of who has a pole worthy car and who doesn’t.

Starting Positions of Race Winners

Starting Pos.Races Won
13
21
33
42
52
71
81
93
141
162
171
192
221
243
252
311

Auto Club 400 Props Challenge on NASCAR.com

  1. The last two winners have won from the Pole at Auto Club. Will Sunday’s winner win from the front row? If you say Yes to this option you’re picking Austin Dillon or Kevin Harvick to win. We briefly touched on both guys in the podcast: Austin Dillon qualifies well but fails to impress during the actual races. And Kevin Harvick has disappointed the past few races and his team hasn’t figure out the new aero package. I’m going to take the field and say No for this prop.
  2. The last four Auto Club races have seen an average of 19.5 lead changes. O/U 18.5 lead changes in Sunday’s race? The lead change props are always difficult to read. But here’s what we know about Auto Club: the track chews up tires and it’s a 200-lap race, which does limit the opportunity for official lead changes. There could be plenty of lead changes coming off pit road especially if everyone isn’t pitting together. 18.5 is a hefty amount, but I’ll take the Over.
  3. Whip Chip Ganassi Racing driver will have a higher finishing position? Kyle Larson or Kurt Busch? Larson is starting 15th on Sunday and Busch is starting 21st. They both have solid performances at Auto Club as they both have multiple Top 5 finishes. But Larson has a win at this course and he’s one of the hometown drivers this week. I’ll take Kyle Larson to ride the wall and fly around the track on Sunday and finish ahead of Kurt Busch.
  4. Will the race winner lead the most laps? Again this is mostly luck-related unless you feel really good about a driver. Kyle Busch dominated in terms of laps led last week and he went on to win the race. It is tempting to assume Kyle Busch could do it again on Sunday, he does have a pretty good history at this track, he’s starting fourth, and there aren’t as many laps to be led out there this week. However, I’ll stick with logic and say no because I’m of the mindset the winner of the race will make some moves on fresh tires toward the end of the race to win while having a relatively modest amount of laps led.
  5. Which Joe Gibbs Racing driver will have the higher finishing position? Erik Jones or Denny Hamlin? I’m going to take Denny Hamlin to finish higher than Erik Jones. Jones has an okay history at this track, but Hamlin has a Top 5 and a couple Top 10’s at this track. Hamlin’s starting 6th while Jones is starting 18th so currently he’s in the midst of a potential wreck if one were to happen early on. Hamlin’s a pretty safe call here.
  6. Chevrolet has had three drivers finish in the Top 10 the past two Auto Club races. O/U 2.5 Chevrolet drivers finish in the Top 10 on Sunday? So as a refresher a few Chevy drivers of note would be Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, Austin Dillon, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, William Byron, Daniel Hemric, Ryan Preece, Ty Dillon, and a few others. Not a ton of sexy names, but I think three of those drivers (Larson, Elliott, and either Johnson or Busch) could crack the Top 10. I’ll take the Over for this prop.
  7. Kyle Larson has finished first and second in the last two Auto Club races. Does he finish in the Top 5 on Sunday?  I’ll say Yes because he runs very well at this track. He’ll ride the wall and generate plenty of speed. He’s got three Top 5’s in his last five races at this track so he’s very comfortable running here. He’s starting 15th, but he’ll have plenty of time and speed to move up on Sunday.
  8. Which team will have the highest finishing driver on Sunday? Richard Childress Racing or Roush Fenway Racing? So for Richard Childress Racing it’ll be Austin Dillon and Daniel Hemric. For Roush Fenway Racing it’ll be Ryan Newman and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Dillon and Hemric qualified 1st and 17th respectively and Newman and Stenhouse are starting 7th and 12th. I’m going to go with Roush Fenway Racing. Newman and Stenhouse in general have finished higher than Dillon and Hemric so far this season. Dillon and Hemric have been good at qualifying, but just haven’t shown up on race day. Newman and Stenhouse also have slightly better histories at this track so we’ll go with RFR.
  9. Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of 10.0 the last four races at Auto Club Speedway. Will he finish inside the Top 10 in Sunday’s race? I’m going to say Yes because I alluded to the fact earlier that I’m taking the Over on Chevy’s finishing in the Top 10 because I think he’ll be one of them. He has a really solid history at Auto Club and as mentioned in the podcast he has a knack for navigating his way through the field at this course and improving his position differential. He’s starting 11th so another Top 10 at this track is well within reach.
  10.  Which Roush Fenway Racing driver will have the higher finishing position? Ryan Newman or Ricky Stenhouse Jr.? Well as mentioned previously they’re starting 7th and 12th respectively. I’ll take Stenhouse for this prop, but it does depend on how they both look in practice. Stenhouse has a better history of position differential at this track so for now I’m going to stick with him.

Stacks

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