Atlanta Motor Speedway is the host track this week for the only race weekend there all year. Don’t be fooled though, this track has enough bite in it to make one race feel like two to the drivers. First things first, it’s 1.5-mile Quad-Oval layout that was opened in 1960 and has since hosted 111 races just in the Cup series. Perhaps the most well-known thing about the track is that the surface is the most-worn of any track on the schedule. It eats tires for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, and that even with the management of the track resealing it and repairing the cracks. It was slated to be repaved following the 2017 race, but the drivers rose up and stated, nearly to a man, that the liked racing on the surface as is because it puts the race in the driver’s hands more than repaved tracks do.

It has been 22 years since it was last repaved and, in that time, the qualifying speeds have fallen precipitously from a record pole speed of 197.4 in 1997 (immediately following the repave) to 184 and change last year when Kyle Busch was on the pole. So, tires are absolutely paramount at this track. Along with that comes track position given that only four drivers have managed a +5 mark or better in the last five races overall. Expect drivers to always want four tires at every pit stop this weekend and expect Crew Chiefs to try and get away with two-tire changes to save the track position.

If we go back through the last 20 races at the track, 16 of the winners started P10 or better and two others started P11 meaning 90% of winners since 2005 start in basically the top-quarter of the spots in the starting grid. That being said however, the pole sitter has only won once in that span with it coming in 2006.

There are 325 laps in the scheduled race on Sunday meaning there are quite a few chances for dominator points (aka laps led and fastest laps) during the race. There are a total of 243.75 points available on DraftKings for those bonuses and on FanDuel there are 195 points available for laps led and laps completed. All of that means that scores while be high again this week if you manage to pair the right drivers together and capitalize on dominator points.

Drivers To Watch This Week

Track Data

Last Five Folds of Honor 500s

  Avg. Avg.  TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartRPFinishPDW5101520
Jimmie Johnson522.41110.41223334
Kevin Harvick52.62.87.4-4.812445
Brad Keselowski58.27.412-3.812444
Denny Hamlin5111219.8-8.802223
Martin Truex Jr514.69.29.84.801444
Joey Logano512.68.28.44.201355
Kurt Busch410.8882.801344
Chase Elliott320.79.37.71301333
Kyle Larson591314.2-5.201333
Kyle Busch412.81310.52.301224
Clint Bowyer521.62022.2-0.601122
Ryan Newman53.81319.6-1600222
Aric Almirola519.619154.600144
Ricky Stenhouse Jr512.21619-6.800124
  Avg. Avg.  TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartRPFinishPDW5101520
Erik Jones216.51412.5400022
Austin Dillon5161924-800022
Paul Menard519.81918.21.600014
Ryan Blaney3211718.32.700012
Ty Dillon425.32320.84.500012
Daniel Suarez212.51918-5.500011
William Byron1232318500001
David Ragan530.22624.65.600001
Alex Bowman3302726400001
Chris Buescher327.72825.7200000
Michael McDowell427.33128.3-100000
  Avg. Avg.  TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartRPFinishPDW5101520
Matt DiBenedetto3293029.3-0.300000
Bubba Wallace1192532-1300000
Landon Cassill435.333332.300000
Corey LaJoie1323634-200000
Cody Ware1393839000000
BJ McLeod0000000000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Garrett Smithley0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Parker Kligerman0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000

 

Driver#Laps LedLL/RaceFast LapsFL/RaceT15 RateAvg. RatingLC
Jimmie Johnson514629.28617.264%96.91635
Kevin Harvick591518332765.498%135.11640
Brad Keselowski56412.89719.495%106.21601
Denny Hamlin57715.45811.676%88.91454
Martin Truex Jr53575210.488%99.51639
Joey Logano585179318.690%104.31640
Kurt Busch413634389.592%102.11315
Chase Elliott300391388%96.4980
Kyle Larson571.4183.666%84.81632
Kyle Busch4112.8401057%86.11315
Clint Bowyer510.25310.649%73.41607
Ryan Newman52045711.477%911619
Aric Almirola50081.638%70.51634
Ricky Stenhouse Jr500173.454%74.31615
Driver#Laps LedLL/RaceFast LapsFL/RaceT15 RateAvg. RatingLC
Erik Jones20031.563%78650
Austin Dillon50071.449%67.31589
Paul Menard500122.424%67.91634
Ryan Blaney300258.356%72.8977
Ty Dillon400102.51%601306
Daniel Suarez2008450%67.9647
William Byron100220%51323
David Ragan500183.67%521621
Alex Bowman300317%53.3970
Chris Buescher30051.70%46.7970
Michael McDowell400410%421284
Matt DiBenedetto300000%39.7966
Bubba Wallace100000%44.3319
Driver#Laps LedLL/RaceFast LapsFL/RaceT15 RateAvg. RatingLC
Landon Cassill40071.80%38.71065
Corey LaJoie100220%30.8313
Cody Ware100000%23.274
BJ McLeod00000000
Daniel Hemric00000000
Garrett Smithley00000000
Matt Tifft00000000
Parker Kligerman00000000
Ross Chastain00000000
Ryan Preece00000000

 

Top-15 Drivers Over The Last 10 Atlanta Races

  Avg. Avg.  TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartRPFinishPDW5101520
Jimmie Johnson10171213.13.925567
Kurt Busch913.7116.7714799
Kevin Harvick1015.26.8105.213889
Brad Keselowski1015.51116.5-113666
Kyle Busch97.91111.3-3.413557
Denny Hamlin10101321-1113445
Martin Truex Jr1014.19.110.93.203688
Joey Logano1016.71514.81.902467
Ryan Newman107.11518.3-1101446
Chase Elliott320.79.37.71301333
Kyle Larson591314.2-5.201333
Paul Menard1019.71918.11.601237
Clint Bowyer1018.41924.3-5.901233
Aric Almirola7202118.11.900145
Ricky Stenhouse Jr610.31718.5-8.200125

 

  LapsLap LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg.
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Jimmie Johnson1018318.315115.167%95.5
Kurt Busch927530.56991176%99.1
Kevin Harvick101016101.641641.685%116.3
Brad Keselowski10979.713913.979%95.5
Kyle Busch915417.1113314.7866%95.3
Denny Hamlin1029429.419719.770%95.3
Martin Truex Jr10787.8898.990%98.1
Joey Logano1016316.315815.858%88.2
Ryan Newman10323.2939.361%85.3
Chase Elliott300391388%96.4
Kyle Larson571.4183.666%84.8
Paul Menard1010.1323.231%70.7
Clint Bowyer10616.1767.654%79.7
Aric Almirola700243.4329%67.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr600193.1748%74.8

 

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (Atlanta, Auto Club, Charlotte, Chicago, and Kansas)

  Avg. Avg.  TopTopTopTopLapsFastestTop-15Avg.
Driver#StartRPFinishPDW5101520LedLapsRateRating
Martin Truex Jr2011.87.56.55.361216191970652792%113.2
Jimmie Johnson20211213.77.3448121544625370%93.7
Kevin Harvick204.48.510.3-6311141617152980479%116.6
Brad Keselowski209.39.47.41.92716192013823386%99.9
Joey Logano2011.31010.40.91815161643623581%99.2
Kyle Larson2014.81212.91.91813131424729874%95.3
Denny Hamlin209.51013-41812141523917882%96.2
Kyle Busch186.68.210.1-41613141660539282%108.1
Chase Elliott1513.59.710.72.81610111328123382%101.2
Kurt Busch1910.51212.4-2059121624116578%92.1
Ryan Blaney1614.81215.3-1037101217616575%89.2
Ryan Newman2010.71719.6-90351011257154%77.2
Clint Bowyer2020.51717.43.10341014287850%75.7
Erik Jones1116.21515.30.90147824264%81.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2017.31918-1012814116531%69.2

 

DraftKings Points in Last Five Folds of Honor 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman23  404.52322.526.56
Aric Almirola3020.54345.53325.2534.439.37
Austin Dillon410.531-18920.7512.729.92
BJ McLeod       13.38
Brad Keselowski6875.254742.5-24.2571.6341.739.07
Bubba Wallace       21.94
Chase Elliott5354.560  53.7555.8338.18
Chris Buescher182619.5  2221.1725.86
Clint Bowyer55.54911.521.8-552.2526.5539.09
Cody Ware 5   5513.25
Corey LaJoie 9   9915
Daniel Hemric       2
Daniel Suarez21.523.5   22.522.529.02
David Ragan2835.51325.53231.7526.823.23
Denny Hamlin59.5-18.529.5-16.571.2520.525.0537.51
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Erik Jones3240.5   36.2536.2531.57
Garrett Smithley       9.33
Jimmie Johnson13.524.58613554.51962.731.68
Joey Logano54.25485573.53651.1353.3542.28
Kevin Harvick132.3129.591.3101100.8130.88110.8566.26
Kurt Busch57.54356 51.550.255239.45
Kyle Busch44.751685 2030.3841.4460.92
Kyle Larson3754.2512.5-1.531.545.6326.7543.26
Landon Cassill 283.51242814.1319.43
Martin Truex Jr74.753964.547.5456.8845.9548.67
Matt DiBenedetto121021  1114.3320.57
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Matt Tifft       0
Michael McDowell14231014 18.515.2521.04
Parker Kligerman       23.25
Paul Menard25113431421828.625.86
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1926.531-7.530.522.7519.924.54
Ross Chastain18    181819.06
Ryan Blaney47.532.517.5  4032.533.89
Ryan Newman28.75-19.81.531354.515.327.66
Ryan Preece       0
Ty Dillon2242.528.5 2332.252923.95
William Byron32    323220.71

 

FanDuel Points in Last Five Folds of Honor 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman52.2  59.736.152.249.3339.07
Aric Almirola59.547.664.868.564.553.5560.9835.63
Austin Dillon64.934.461.518.244.949.6544.7842.07
BJ McLeod       38.35
Brad Keselowski77.879.66966.213.478.761.233.83
Bubba Wallace       26.95
Chase Elliott7271.574  71.7572.541.63
Chris Buescher47.651.347.1  49.4548.6727.25
Clint Bowyer73.569.534.749.725.971.550.6638.33
Cody Ware 9.4   9.49.421.15
Corey LaJoie 37.3   37.337.341.2
Daniel Hemric       23.25
Daniel Suarez52.952.3   52.652.631.6
David Ragan53.155.841.854.852.654.4551.6231.5
Denny Hamlin76.17.255.815.882.241.6547.4248.23
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Erik Jones6264   636342.37
Garrett Smithley       20.63
Jimmie Johnson43.654.190.210376.548.8573.4249.37
Joey Logano72.667.56976.460.570.0569.251.6
Kevin Harvick94.689.781.184.16692.1583.137.17
Kurt Busch70.269.574.7 68.269.8570.6542.67
Kyle Busch64.45189.2 54.557.764.7842.97
Kyle Larson6476.244.7376470.157.1842.07
Landon Cassill 53.833.6 48.453.845.2736.35
Martin Truex Jr83.66671.471.542.974.867.0828.17
Matt DiBenedetto41.442.147.6  41.7543.738.2
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Matt Tifft       24.95
Michael McDowell45.647.539.844.5 46.5544.3548.5
Parker Kligerman       45
Paul Menard55.444.257.360.56449.856.2832.73
Ricky Stenhouse Jr52.45661.527.257.454.250.948.15
Ross Chastain44.9    44.944.945.95
Ryan Blaney68.553.447.8  60.9556.5736.23
Ryan Newman42.920.739.8626631.846.2841.87
Ryan Preece       49.85
Ty Dillon48.16457.3 51.256.0555.1552.1
William Byron57.8    57.857.829.7

 

Rankings For The Folds Of Honor 500 (1=Best, 40=Worst)

 Rankings
DriverRace HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Atlanta HistTrack Type Hist
Kevin Harvick1111134
Kyle Busch714128753
Joey Logano4674595
Brad Keselowski82279102
Martin Truex Jr5336641
Chase Elliott2443326
Denny Hamlin1822271822199
Kyle Larson1086161288
Clint Bowyer205517192114
Ryan Blaney1591011131511
Aric Almirola11161710101315
Kurt Busch3785417
Jimmie Johnson6232322710
Erik Jones910998611
DriverRace HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Atlanta HistTrack Type Hist
Alex Bowman24171919202320
Ricky Stenhouse Jr16181522181716
Austin Dillon21212128262018
William Byron12121112111123
Daniel Suarez12191819161113
Paul Menard14252014141319
Ryan Newman17302924231517
Chris Buescher23202221212221
Ty Dillon19111313151821
Bubba Wallace27313131312823
Daniel Hemric40313131314040
DriverRace HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Atlanta HistTrack Type Hist
Michael McDowell25242425273027
Matt Tifft40313131314040
David Ragan22131415172425
Matt DiBenedetto26272626282528
Ryan Preece40313131314040
Landon Cassill28151627242726
Ross Chastain40252523252629
Corey LaJoie29282829292930
BJ McLeod40313131314031
Cody Ware30293030303132
Parker Kligerman40313131314040
Garrett Smithley40313131314040

Any questions can be asked in the chat or on Twitter at @theselzman. Check out the Track Data Legend to see what all the columns show.