For the first race in the penultimate round of the NASCAR Cup series playoffs, the field makes a trip back to the only track to be on the NASCAR schedule every year since the first year of NASCAR in 1948. That's right it’s short track racing at Martinsville Speedway this week as the remaining eight drivers try to punch their ticket into the championship race at Homestead-Miami in three week’s time.

Known as “The Paperclip,” and one look at the track from an aerial view will show you how it got that nickname, it is the short track on the schedule at just .526 miles in length for one lap and it’s one of the flattest too. The straightaways have no banking to speak of and the turns are banked at a 12 degree pitch all the way from the curb to the outer runoff area. As a whole though the narrowness of the track and the shortness of it make it a track that can be tough to navigate on without issues occurring. Eight drivers in the field this week have a +6.0 PD mark in the last five races but most of those advancements are from the fact that there are a ton of cautions at the track. In fact over the last 10 races here there have been an average of 12.2 cautions per race at the aptly nicknamed the “Half-mile of Mayhem.”

This week the 500 in the race name signifies the number of laps run in the race, or at least the scheduled distance for the race. With that many laps being run and a short track on tap, it will lead to a lot of laps led from a couple of drivers. There are also a ton of bonus points available for laps led and fastest laps and laps completed so scoring will be high this week. That being said the last time the pole sitter led more than a handful of laps was this race two years ago when Martin Truex Jr. led 147 of the 500 laps after starting P1 on the grid.

Track Data

Last Five Races at Martinsville Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch58.432.225555837
Brad Keselowski595.64.414555225
Clint Bowyer51616.612.812333215
Jimmie Johnson517.21010.411255116
Martin Truex Jr54.67.49.402335193
Austin Dillon523.617.413.8022340
Kevin Harvick513.811.213.40222572
AJ Allmendinger518.41513.2014445
Matt Kenseth41779.301344221
Joey Logano52.4910.801344102
Chase Elliott58.211.414.201234143
Denny Hamlin581318.201233190
Ryan Blaney58.611.614.801224145
Kyle Larson5913.417.40112429
Ryan Newman512.214.813.4002350
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5232925.8002220
Paul Menard515.617.6170012410
Alex Bowman116147001110
Jamie McMurray515.421.624.8001110
Aric Almirola514.821.221000240
Kurt Busch516.414.821000220
Erik Jones3121718.3000120
Daniel Suarez31922.721.7000120
Chris Buescher529.826.623000110
Michael McDowell525.424.221.6000020
William Byron1202120000010
Regan Smith227.53032000002
BJ McLoud0000000000
Hermie Sadler0000000000
Ty Dillon32726.724.7000000
Cole Whitt431.82725.8000000
David Ragan525.428.627000000
Landon Cassill532.429.629000000
Ross Chastain1333129000000
JJ Yeley1383031000000
Timmy Hill1383633000000
Matt DiBenedetto529.830.633.4000000
Bubba Wallace1193434000000
Jeffrey Earnhardt33735.335.7000000
Joey Gase1373636000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Kyle Busch344100%2505133148.2122.16.2041.8515.210.9
Brad Keselowski33495%2505117.7133105.34.6011.2515.312.4
Clint Bowyer14752%249786.5137.944.23.2010.7551.442.3
Jimmie Johnson7283%250497.6115.781.66.805.8018.116
Martin Truex Jr10898%2505101.1119.178.5-4.809.651822.6
Austin Dillon2053%249778.290.357.99.800.0012.120.3
Kevin Harvick12669%250392.2111.965.90.403.6019.726.3
AJ Allmendinger5668%209484.2106.833.85.200.2522.650.4
Matt Kenseth9792%2005107129.792.17.7013.8122.714.9
Joey Logano13984%2504100111.780.7-8.405.1011.719.3
Chase Elliott12565%250291.4122.169-6.007.1530.722.4
Denny Hamlin11374%221989.2111.658.2-10.209.5022.431
Ryan Blaney4863%250189.212164.8-6.207.2531.824.4
Kyle Larson3775%229885.110964.6-8.401.4523.920.5
Ryan Newman1749%250179.787.570.3-1.200.007.89.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1713%200148.571.724-2.800.0023.224.5
Paul Menard2342%250170.796.655.5-1.400.5025.915.2
Alex Bowman1363%50085.585.585.59.000.0000
Jamie McMurray3629%210269.392.958.1-9.400.0023.611.2
Aric Almirola2718%221063.979.939.5-6.200.001624.4
Kurt Busch2666%229776.393.350.4-4.600.001725.9
Erik Jones936%150172.475.668.3-6.300.003.24.1
Daniel Suarez1619%149161.379.536.4-2.700.0018.224.9
Chris Buescher07%248750.967.233.36.800.0016.317.6
Michael McDowell00%249554.55845.83.800.003.58.7
William Byron00%49762.762.762.70.000.0000
Regan Smith60%98544.345.443.2-4.500.251.11.1
BJ McLoud00%00000.00 00
Hermie Sadler00%00000.00 00
Ty Dillon22%149647.954.436.82.300.006.511.1
Cole Whitt311%199146.250.9396.000.004.77.2
David Ragan170%241946.758.139.7-1.600.0011.47
Landon Cassill351%220241.85226.73.400.0010.215.1
Ross Chastain00%49335.535.535.54.000.0000
JJ Yeley00%49336.336.336.37.000.0000
Timmy Hill00%48626.526.526.55.000.0000
Matt DiBenedetto140%206039.643.134.5-3.600.00  
Bubba Wallace00%48638.538.538.5-15.000.0000
Jeffrey Earnhardt21%114528.93226.21.300.003.12.7
Joey Gase00%49028.928.928.91.000.0000

Top-15 Drivers Over the Last 10 Races at Martinsville

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch96.76.16.226699871
Brad Keselowski109.910.712.916777386
Denny Hamlin107.31112.913678366
Clint Bowyer1015.615.113.913677324
Jimmie Johnson1012.512.613.813488535
Kurt Busch1017.413.420.81114587
Joey Logano102.57.811.704688516
Matt Kenseth911.98.210.303788472
Kevin Harvick1015.911.512.902669265
Martin Truex Jr101011.913.402558243
Austin Dillon924.819.917.2022576
AJ Allmendinger9151615.60157725
Ryan Newman1011.215.916.2014582
Jamie McMurray1011.717.320.40144584
Chase Elliott611.31618.201234143

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kyle Busch38793%4505116.6148.279.20.5024.1969
Brad Keselowski43778%4936103.113346.6-3.009.6586.4
Denny Hamlin25780%471998.3134.958.2-5.609.1576.7
Clint Bowyer25262%468290.5137.944.21.708.1093.7
Jimmie Johnson23973%493198.8140.957.1-1.3013.3883.8
Kurt Busch6166%472083.4115.850.4-3.402.1865.4
Joey Logano28487%4962106.1121.980.7-9.2012.9041.2
Matt Kenseth24586%4448105.5134.680.21.6013.1154.4
Kevin Harvick29274%496096.912965.23.006.6363.8
Martin Truex Jr12674%494189.5119.148.6-3.406.0870.5
Austin Dillon2335%432771.690.349.57.600.1740.8
AJ Allmendinger9064%377184.2106.833.8-0.600.6973
Ryan Newman3451%492979.796.162.9-5.000.0533.2
Jamie McMurray11252%449882.9112.658.1-8.702.1054.5
Chase Elliott13154%292982.7122.139-6.905.9683.1

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (Martinsville, Richmond, and New Hampshire)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch208.75.666141718191637
Denny Hamlin217.5109.639131819633
Matt Kenseth1911.78.612.8381214141016
Kevin Harvick2110.58.19.8212141619681
Brad Keselowski2110.67.48.9110151919685
Joey Logano217.810.310.119151818571
Kyle Larson2011.312.412.81581318104
Jimmie Johnson2112.41211.312111919161
Clint Bowyer2121.418.5191281010260
Martin Truex Jr216.38.19.8071416201514
Chase Elliott1712.912.914.90461113201
Aric Almirola2119.519.317.603481643
Kurt Busch211011.1160281315293
Austin Dillon212218.217.30249156
Ryan Newman2114.515.615.4018121731

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Kyle Busch82995%7884119.7149.273.72.7020.4675.5
Denny Hamlin50682%8135101.4137.858.2-2.107.5479.6
Matt Kenseth59782%7240107149.762.9-1.1013.3786.8
Kevin Harvick68287%8266106130.858.90.708.1171.9
Brad Keselowski75292%8404107.3133.167.21.708.1565.9
Joey Logano33079%834699.312461.3-2.306.8062.7
Kyle Larson17972%771390.2125.863.7-1.501.3062.1
Jimmie Johnson16474%606192.2116.557.11.101.9259.4
Clint Bowyer21845%688075.3137.939.32.403.1098.6
Martin Truex Jr62289%8415107.9134.954.6-3.5018.0280.3
Chase Elliott20669%158188122.139-2.002.9683.1
Aric Almirola14633%785972.8111.236.71.900.5174.5
Kurt Busch19178%804490.8124.650.4-6.003.4974.2
Austin Dillon4539%823871.991.249.54.700.0741.7
Ryan Newman4753%837078.494.762.9-0.900.3731.8

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Chase Elliott59.88.48.6234441.2105.2
Aric Almirola58.89.49.612345-0.899.7
Kyle Busch58.49.413.812333-5.499
Ryan Blaney58.810.213.411234-4.694.1
Joey Logano510.88.68024552.8103.5
Clint Bowyer510.410.212.602344-2.295.8
Erik Jones511.41511.402344082.1
Kurt Busch559.21202235-7100.1
Denny Hamlin512.613.69.602245384.9
Martin Truex Jr58.411.21202244-3.695.5
Kevin Harvick55.44.811.401344-6116.8
Kyle Larson5171111.6012445.498.5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr517.219.216.4012340.876.9
Alex Bowman5912.417.201233-8.285
Jamie McMurray518.618.618.601113069.3

 

Points Changes at Martinsville Speedway

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Brad Keselowski124.536.6987.8
Kyle Busch13759.9277.1
Jimmie Johnson5330.6222.4
Matt Kenseth45.524.3121.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr4625.3520.7
Chase Elliott57.2538.0219.2
Austin Dillon46.529.2517.3
Landon Cassill3120.110.9
Ryan Newman35.526.489.0
Clint Bowyer51.542.878.6
Martin Truex Jr5647.398.6
Denny Hamlin43.7537.366.4
Chris Buescher3125.675.3
Michael McDowell2621.015.0
Ryan Blaney38.535.293.2
Joey Logano41.7539.921.8
Cole Whitt2423.90.1
Daniel Suarez29.530.46-1.0
David Ragan1922.17-3.2
Paul Menard2326.36-3.4
Jamie McMurray1322.85-9.9
Jeffrey Earnhardt616.44-10.4
Ty Dillon1023.04-13.0
Kevin Harvick5065.05-15.1
Aric Almirola1839.08-21.1
Matt DiBenedetto-620.97-27.0
Kurt Busch11.539.07-27.6
Erik Jones031.69-31.7
AJ Allmendinger-925.43-34.4
Kyle Larson-20.542.48-63.0
    
  AVG. +/-19.5

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Kyle Busch118.461.9956.41
Brad Keselowski99.851.5748.23
Matt Kenseth86.543.0843.42
Ricky Stenhouse Jr87.545.8741.63
Jimmie Johnson87.948.8139.09
Austin Dillon84.549.5134.99
Landon Cassill73.539.0034.50
Martin Truex Jr90.556.3234.18
Michael McDowell7338.9134.09
Clint Bowyer89.556.3833.12
Ryan Newman79.547.9431.56
Ryan Blaney81.550.8730.63
Denny Hamlin84.754.6430.06
Chris Buescher74.545.4429.06
Kevin Harvick90.561.9628.54
Cole Whitt68.940.5628.34
Daniel Suarez76.548.6027.90
Paul Menard7145.3625.64
David Ragan64.844.1920.61
Ty Dillon59.143.3615.74
Aric Almirola69.554.5114.99
Chase Elliott64.754.1010.60
Jamie McMurray55.845.6310.17
Kurt Busch6454.669.34
Erik Jones56.451.794.61
Joey Logano61.857.574.23
Jeffrey Earnhardt29.935.38-5.48
Matt DiBenedetto15.241.07-25.87
Kyle Larson2056.62-36.62
AJ Allmendinger3.943.74-39.84
    
  AVG. +/-27.65

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

 Top 10 Value  Bottom 10 Value 
1Joey Gase5.3539Timmy Hill2.49
2Kevin Harvick5.2038BJ McLeod2.85
3Kyle Busch5.0437Jamie McMurray3.13
4Regan Smith4.9436Jeffrey Earnhardt3.22
5Cole Whitt4.7835William Byron3.32
6Aric Almirola4.7134Paul Menard3.42
7Martin Truex Jr4.4333Alex Bowman3.45
8Denny Hamlin4.4032Matt Kenseth3.52
9Clint Bowyer4.3731Brad Keselowski3.60
10Chris Buescher4.3530Ross Chastain3.63

 

FanDuel

 Top 10 Value  Bottom 10 Value 
1Cole Whitt10.1438Brad Keselowski3.82
2Landon Cassill9.7537Kyle Busch4.43
3J.J. Yeley9.5636Denny Hamlin4.48
4Joey Gase9.1235Joey Logano4.61
5Jeffrey Earnhardt8.8534Chase Elliott4.62
6Ross Chastain8.6333Kevin Harvick4.77
7Matt DiBenedetto8.2132Martin Truex Jr.4.94
8Regan Smith7.6931Ryan Blaney4.99
9Bubba Wallace7.3930Clint Bowyer5.03
10David Ragan7.3629Kyle Larson5.19

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Kyle Busch - Busch is hands down the best driver in the field this week. It’s not even close. The driver of the 18-car has won twice in the last five and has five top-fives in that span too. His 837 and 344 fastest laps lead the field and in fact the fastest laps tally is 1.5x more than the next closest driver is in laps led to Busch. He’s clearly a lock to play this week and could even lock his way into the championship if he pulls off the third win in the last six races.

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex has never won on a short track in his career, not once. He has have looked good at short tracks recently including at Martinsville. Truex has two top-fives, and three top-10s with 193 laps led, with 147 led in this race two years ago. His 9.4 average finish is fourth-best in the field in the last five races and bodes well for another strong finish this weekend as he is still in the hunt to defend his title from a year ago.

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer won this race in March after it was delayed a day by weather. He led the most laps in that race as well with 215 up front. He does have two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last five races as well. Bowyer has been a factor in races most of the second of the season and has looked good at all of the short tracks this year, and has finished top-10 eight times in the last 21 races on similar tracks. Eager to punch his ticket to the championship as the first SHR car would also cap a season-sweep at the Paperclip.

Chase Elliott - Chase was in position to win this race a year ago until Denny Hamlin drove him off the track with only a handful of laps left. He does have two top-10s in his last five races here with 143 laps led and 125 fastest laps. Elliott has three top-12 finishes in the last four races with the only exception the P27 finish last year. The 9-car has been one of the hottest on the track in the playoffs and has two wins since the Chase started including last week and I think that hot streak continues as he has another top-five finish.

Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is back in the 6-car this week after a few weeks off and it’s a good thing he is as this is one of his best tracks in the last few years. Kenseth has the third-best average finish in the field with a 9.3 mark after starting P17 in the last four races. He has three top-10s and 221 laps led in that span as well. His average driver rating of 107 is third in the field behind only Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch. Clearly the 6-team hasn’t been great this year but his skill should still be on display and offer a nice value at his salary on both sites.