For the first time since the week before the All-Star race, the speed and chaos of Cup racing returns to the Great Plains. Kansas Speedway is located just west of Kansas City (both KCK and KCMO) and while it hosts the action on Sunday, Arrowhead Stadium (east of KCMO) will host SNF between the Chiefs and Bengals. Quite a lot of high-powered action happening in the suburbs of Kansas City this weekend.

Like in years past, Kansas is a cutoff race in the playoffs as it is the last race in the Round of 12 before heading to Martinsville next week for the start of the Round of 8. Because it is a cutoff race, some drivers are in must-win situations this week and others simply need solid showings to advance. This week happens to be the first 1.5-mile track run on since Vegas as the opening race in the playoffs five weeks ago. With that being the case expect to see the top-salary guys represented in the top of the grid throughout the race.

Kansas Speedway is one of the newest tracks in the NASCAR ranks having hosted the first race there in September of 2001 and for the first 10 years it was a once-a-year stop in the Cup series. All told there have been 25 races run at the track and 15 of those races have been won by a driver starting in the top-10. The track was repaved and redesigned in 2012 with the redesign changing the banking from an even 15 degrees throughout the turns to a progressive banking of 17-20 degrees the closer you get to the outer wall. The repave also changed the grip and grooves of the track for the first several races following it.

In the last five races there have been two two-time winners with Kevin Harvick bookending back-to-back wins from Martin Truex Jr. In those five races there have been an average of nine cautions per race with just over 42 laps run under caution per race as well. Each of the last four races has seen one driver lead just over 100 laps and one other leading between 75-90 with the other laps being split between a few others. So mainly there are likely to be just two dominators in the race. One other thing to keep in mind is that this track has lost considerable grip over the last two years, by some estimates its 25% in loss of grip, and that means a lot more of the race will be spent at or near the top of the track to get the most speed out of the car. In fact there was a Goodyear Tire test at Kansas two weeks ago and Martin Truex Jr., who normally runs around the bottom here, spent the whole test at the top of the track and looked like the best car at the test.

 

Track Data

Last Four Races at Kansas Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick59.604.4324555200
Martin Truex Jr53.2075.823355380
Kyle Busch54.605.26.213555240
Ryan Blaney513.40712.603344140
Kurt Busch59.60119023454
Denny Hamlin55.401117022336
Joey Logano59.6011.820.40222211
Brad Keselowski59.0014.615.40124422
Chase Elliott513.4016.617012334
Kyle Larson517.201422.801222101
Jimmie Johnson520.001415011240
Austin Dillon515.201611.8002356
AJ Allmendinger520.8020.418.8002230
Aric Almirola519.2021.422.8002230
Clint Bowyer527.2018.617.6001243
Paul Menard515.802122.6001230
Ryan Newman513.8017.824.4001220
Trevor Bayne419.8021.518001131
Alex Bowman212.0015.512.5001120
Chris Buescher521.0021.820.6001120
Erik Jones316.7014.721.3001112
Jamie McMurray517.602227.2001111
Daniel Suarez311.3018.723.7001110
Ricky Stenhouse Jr514.2019.216.60003410
David Ragan528.6026.822.4000131
Michael McDowell530.002520.2000130
Ty Dillon325.702522.7000120
Regan Smith229.002626000001
Matt DiBenedetto528.2029.226000001
JJ Yeley00.0000000000
Kyle Weatherman00.0000000000
Bubba Wallace121.003123000000
Landon Cassill533.403025.4000000
Corey LaJoie333.003126000000
Ross Chastain128.003526000000
Reed Sorenson536.6033.828.8000000
Jeffrey Earnhardt232.5033.529.5000000
Timmy Hill238.503630000000
BJ McLeod234.0036.532.5000000
William Byron113.001733000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Kevin Harvick20595%1335125.8139.8114.96.6010.001410.9
Martin Truex Jr22290%1335120.4144.997.8-2.6019.0024.522.6
Kyle Busch11497%1335117.2129.8103.6-1.6012.0012.613.6
Ryan Blaney8088%1315102.8128.476.50.807.0025.626.3
Kurt Busch1576%133591.7113.972.80.600.2022.218.9
Denny Hamlin1876%130886.396.668.1-11.600.3010.318.2
Joey Logano1570%124087.9115.859.3-10.800.5527.928.6
Brad Keselowski4571%125886.897.166.9-6.401.1010.319.9
Chase Elliott3554%132383.8100.573.1-3.600.2016.710.7
Kyle Larson7169%112489.9125.962-5.605.053627.9
Jimmie Johnson4266%133384.4112.660.15.000.0028.224.3
Austin Dillon250%133478.796.758.53.400.301820.2
AJ Allmendinger825%128963.192.642.32.000.0029.520.8
Aric Almirola133%103465.196.728-3.600.0031.637.1
Clint Bowyer441%133266.285.247.49.600.151918.8
Paul Menard535%113264.985.647.3-6.800.0020.717.6
Ryan Newman054%114471.492.249-10.600.0020.822.4
Trevor Bayne518%106567.374.563.31.800.067.24
Alex Bowman1258%53382.19470.2-0.500.0011.911.9
Chris Buescher313%131862.373.849.70.400.0011.512.6
Erik Jones1067%73177.790.465-4.600.1712.712.7
Jamie McMurray935%121569.693.246.7-9.600.0523.622.9
Daniel Suarez338%72271.18561.2-12.400.0013.99.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1132%132470.38649.2-2.400.5015.721.1
David Ragan07%132351.165.733.56.200.0514.617.6
Michael McDowell57%133052.359.938.79.800.007.613.6
Ty Dillon04%78157.568.339.53.000.0010.818
Regan Smith03%53048.950.347.53.000.131.41.4
Matt DiBenedetto23%130444.147.739.42.200.053.64.7
JJ Yeley00%00000.00 00
Kyle Weatherman00%00000.00 00
Bubba Wallace20%26247.747.747.7-2.000.0000
Landon Cassill11%132242.65138.78.000.008.43.9
Corey LaJoie00%78840.542.537.97.000.0022.6
Ross Chastain00%25932.832.832.82.000.0000
Reed Sorenson00%130734.641.827.47.800.007.27.2
Jeffrey Earnhardt00%50432.933.8323.000.00  
Timmy Hill00%51230.131.2298.500.001.11.1
BJ McLeod00%50527.328.5261.500.001.21.3
William Byron240%25265.265.265.2-20.000.0000

Top-15 Drivers at Last 10 Races at Kansas Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick106.154.8378910592
Joey Logano107.48.311.727777300
Martin Truex Jr108.1109.724589475
Kyle Busch98.39.39.815788243
Jimmie Johnson1018.913.913.41356845
Kurt Busch1011.414.113.20367824
Denny Hamlin101112.517.6034566
Ryan Blaney713.79.913.903455140
Kyle Larson915.413.919.102355104
Brad Keselowski106.213.215.901478160
Chase Elliott513.416.617012334
Aric Almirola1016.819.619.8004560
Ryan Newman1013.516.319.5003666
Paul Menard1015.117.418.3003487
Austin Dillon918.217.716.6003476

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kevin Harvick39090%2671125.7139.8107.61.3014.8032.2
Joey Logano18283%2577107.4144.759.3-4.307.5085.4
Martin Truex Jr27177%2671106.6144.959-1.6011.8885.9
Kyle Busch12481%2337103.1129.854.6-1.506.7575.2
Jimmie Johnson13368%258390.3118.2425.501.1376.2
Kurt Busch3268%247688.3113.936.9-1.800.6077
Denny Hamlin2070%258285.2107.368.1-6.600.1539.2
Ryan Blaney8677%184795.9128.460.8-0.205.0067.6
Kyle Larson15667%219091.4125.960-3.702.8965.9
Brad Keselowski10773%255091.1118.466.9-9.704.0051.5
Chase Elliott3554%132383.8100.573.1-3.600.2027.4
Aric Almirola137%236271.296.728-3.000.0068.7
Ryan Newman457%240278.4101.849-6.000.1552.8
Paul Menard2347%246775.5114.347.3-3.200.1867
Austin Dillon2043%228776.596.7571.600.1739.7

Top-15 Drivers at Last 20 Similar Races (Kansas, Chicago, Las Vegas, Michigan)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick207.8810.5512141617948
Martin Truex Jr2098.17.2511121820934
Kyle Larson2012.81112.3310131315294
Brad Keselowski208.88.78.538151719426
Kyle Busch196.87.77.828161718697
Denny Hamlin2010.811.211.91612141758
Clint Bowyer2018.816.919.112471132
Joey Logano207.68.810.708161616233
Ryan Blaney1811.19.210.808111416183
Chase Elliott1710.811.614.706101112152
Kurt Busch1910.311.412.80481316139
Ryan Newman2014.815.916.2035121530
Jimmie Johnson2016.113.215.20251216308
Austin Dillon2014.716.716.4025101627
Jamie McMurray2015.316.117.7018111339

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Kevin Harvick64183%4565117.515062.2-2.7011.8587.8
Martin Truex Jr69485%4947112.7147.669.51.8011.6878.1
Kyle Larson30179%473199.4140.553.30.503.6887.2
Brad Keselowski33488%4871104.1127.566.90.305.3360.6
Kyle Busch38186%4679109.6130.665.2-1.009.1765.4
Denny Hamlin9280%489292.6112.868.1-1.100.7344.7
Clint Bowyer5049%487274.2124.247.4-0.300.4076.8
Joey Logano14187%485199.5130.659.3-3.102.9171.3
Ryan Blaney17082%439297.8128.4630.302.5465.4
Chase Elliott16376%394695129.173.1-3.902.2456
Kurt Busch11275%458991.3125.667.7-2.501.8357.9
Ryan Newman3453%475277.4103.449-1.400.3854.4
Jimmie Johnson23464%491088.3130.360.10.903.8570.2
Austin Dillon3348%479477.3107.743.3-1.700.3464.4
Jamie McMurray3659%467578.8113.546.7-2.400.4966.8

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Aric Almirola511.410.28.8123452.696.9
Chase Elliott58.69.815.612333-797.6
Ryan Blaney59.211.21312234-3.889.3
Kyle Busch57.810.614.811333-794.1
Brad Keselowski513.48.616.411233-3102.1
Joey Logano5118.67.2034553.8101.8
Clint Bowyer510.61014.602333-494.5
Kurt Busch54.4712.602234-8.2103.9
Martin Truex Jr581011.602244-3.6102.2
Denny Hamlin511.413.813.202234-1.883.9
Kevin Harvick567.616.801333-10.8112.6
Kyle Larson513.81111.4012442.498.2
Erik Jones510.417.418.601233-8.278.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr51719.418.401233-1.477.5
Alex Bowman58.812.419.201123-10.483.6
Jamie McMurray51718.222.201112-5.271
Jimmie Johnson512.618.616.200333-3.679.1
Austin Dillon520.61716002344.678.3
Daniel Suarez521.216.814.4002246.872.4
Paul Menard52217.81800223479.2

 

Price Changes Since May Kansas Race

DraftKings

 Kansas DK Salaries
DriverMay RaceOct. RaceDifference
AJ Allmendinger65006200-300
Alex Bowman77007600-100
Aric Almirola86008100-500
Austin Dillon74006800-600
Brad Keselowski970010500800
Bubba Wallace61005500-600
Chase Elliott103009900-400
Chris Buescher58006100300
Clint Bowyer90009600600
Corey Lajoie51004700-400
Daniel Suarez680079001100
David Ragan60005700-300
Denny Hamlin95009100-400
Erik Jones810093001200
Jamie McMurray76007800200
Jimmie Johnson93008300-1000
Joey Logano99008500-1400
Kevin Harvick1170012300600
Kurt Busch84008900500
Kyle Busch1120011800600
Kyle Larson1060011500900
Landon Cassill47005200500
Martin Truex Jr10800108000
Matt DiBenedetto52005400200
Michael McDowell54005600200
Paul Menard70007200200
Reed Sorenson48004900100
Ricky Stenhouse Jr73006700-600
Ross Chastain49005300400
Ryan Blaney88008700-100
Ryan Newman79007400-500
Timmy Hill46004500-100
Ty Dillon57005900200
William Byron66007000400

 

FanDuel

 Kansas FD Salaries
DriverMay RaceOct. RaceDifference
AJ Allmendinger71006800-300
Alex Bowman88008400-400
Aric Almirola940010100700
Austin Dillon81008800700
Brad Keselowski10900127001800
Bubba Wallace74007200-200
Chase Elliott10100113001200
Chris Buescher68006500-300
Clint Bowyer1020010700500
Corey LaJoie50004000-1000
Daniel Suarez95008500-1000
David Ragan60005500-500
Denny Hamlin1130010400-900
Erik Jones97009800100
Jamie McMurray93008000-1300
Jimmie Johnson104009500-900
Joey Logano1100011800800
Kevin Harvick1350014200700
Kurt Busch1060011000400
Kyle Busch12200138001600
Kyle Larson10700120001300
Landon Cassill55004000-1500
Martin Truex Jr.1250013400900
Matt DiBenedetto58006000200
Michael McDowell65005000-1500
Paul Menard79007600-300
Reed Sorenson50004000-1000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.90007800-1200
Ross Chastain50004000-1000
Ryan Blaney11500115000
Ryan Newman84008200-200
Ty Dillon61004500-1600
William Byron86007400-1200

 

Points Changes at Kansas October Race

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr97.7547.3950.4
Ryan Blaney79.7534.8944.9
Chris Buescher5225.4226.6
Kurt Busch5839.6818.3
Kyle Busch7859.9818.0
Ty Dillon4123.0118.0
Reed Sorenson3114.5816.4
Paul Menard43.527.2316.3
Chase Elliott5236.7615.2
David Ragan3721.7615.2
Jeffrey Earnhardt3017.3312.7
Aric Almirola5139.3611.6
Trevor Bayne3221.7110.3
Matt DiBenedetto3020.649.4
Landon Cassill2920.068.9
Corey LaJoie2415.888.1
BJ McLeod2013.176.8
Jimmie Johnson35.530.874.6
Brad Keselowski4036.044.0
Michael McDowell2421.092.9
Denny Hamlin39.7537.732.0
Kevin Harvick64.2565.27-1.0
Austin Dillon2728.76-1.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr12.525.51-13.0
AJ Allmendinger625.31-19.3
Joey Logano1938.89-19.9
Clint Bowyer16.543.22-26.7
Ryan Newman-426.34-30.3
Jamie McMurray-13.2522.62-35.9
Erik Jones-16.531.17-47.7
Daniel Suarez-2331.23-54.2
Kyle Larson-16.541.56-58.1
    
  AVG. +/-19.6

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Ryan Blaney83.550.6032.90
Chris Buescher68.745.1823.52
Martin Truex Jr78.856.0222.78
Kurt Busch73.254.9118.29
Reed Sorenson48.332.6815.62
Chase Elliott68.753.3415.36
Paul Menard61.245.9215.28
Ty Dillon58.243.3214.88
Aric Almirola66.754.5212.18
David Ragan55.743.9211.78
Corey LaJoie43.631.8711.73
Jeffrey Earnhardt47.136.4610.64
Michael McDowell48.738.929.78
Landon Cassill48.538.929.58
Matt DiBenedetto49.740.848.86
Trevor Bayne51.743.058.65
Jimmie Johnson57.248.918.29
Denny Hamlin62.754.757.95
BJ McLeod39.431.667.74
Kyle Busch67.461.775.63
Brad Keselowski5551.213.79
Austin Dillon52.249.113.09
Kevin Harvick60.462.07-1.67
Ricky Stenhouse Jr35.145.89-10.79
Joey Logano44.757.31-12.61
Clint Bowyer43.756.42-12.72
AJ Allmendinger29.243.57-14.37
Ryan Newman20.847.79-26.99
Jamie McMurray13.945.44-31.54
Daniel Suarez9.248.99-39.79
Erik Jones11.251.39-40.19
Kyle Larson-3.756.02-59.72
    
  AVG. +/-16.52

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Regan Smith5.7340Timmy Hill2.64
2Kevin Harvick5.3139BJ McLeod2.86
3Kyle Busch5.0838Kyle Weatherman2.86
4Aric Almirola4.8637Jamie McMurray2.90
5Joey Logano4.5836Reed Sorenson2.98
6Clint Bowyer4.5035William Byron3.19
7Kurt Busch4.4634Trevor Bayne3.34
8Martin Truex Jr4.3933Erik Jones3.35
9Austin Dillon4.2332Corey Lajoie3.38
10Chris Buescher4.1731Jeffrey Earnhardt3.40

 

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Ross Chastain10.0240Brad Keselowski4.03
2Landon Cassill9.7339Martin Truex Jr.4.18
3Ty Dillon9.6338Kevin Harvick4.37
4J.J. Yeley9.5637Ryan Blaney4.40
5Jeffrey Earnhardt9.1136Kyle Busch4.48
6Kyle Weatherman8.8135Kyle Larson4.67
7Regan Smith8.6834Chase Elliott4.72
8Reed Sorenson8.1733Joey Logano4.86
9David Ragan7.9932Kurt Busch4.99
10Corey LaJoie7.9731Jimmie Johnson5.15

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex was listed above as a guy that has won multiple races in the last five trips here along with Kevin Harvick. Harvick isn’t in this section because he is safe to make it to the next round, just as long has he takes the green flag on Sunday that is. Truex however, is in the last and final spot to make the next round, 18 points ahead of Keselowski. He doesn’t need a win to advance, but he does need a solid finish. He has three top-10s and 380 laps led in the last five so a solid finish should be doable for him come Sunday.

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is heading to his home track this week as he hails from Emporia Kansas. Last week went about as it could go for Bowyer and the other SHR cars aside from two of them running out of gas late. The great finish last week gives him some breathing room this week as he’s 21 points to good over the cutoff but even with this being his home track he still only has one top-10 in the last five races and two top-15s. That may not be enough depending on what a couple others under the cut line do.

Ryan Blaney - Blaney got into this round by winning at the Roval a couple weeks back, but now he sits on the wrong side of the cut, 22 points behind MTJ for the eighth and final spot. It’s not quite a win or go home race, though he certainly needs some help with advancing aside from a great finish. In the last five races. Blaney has three top-fives and four top-15s in that span with 140 laps led. His average finish of 12.6 is a bit higher than you might expect for a guy with three top-fives. Doing a bit of checking and you see he has finishes of P5, P14, P4, P3, and P37 in the most recent race.

Kyle Larson - Here we get to a guy who has been showing flashes of speed all season but hasn’t been able to put it all together as of yet. At Kansas he has a top-five, two top-10s, 101 laps led (all in one race), and 71 fastest laps in the last five races here. This track really fits his style now with the outside lane being the fastest way around however that can cause havoc if you miss your spots and hit the wall. Larson is in a win or go home situation this week following a post-race penalty at Talladega and having points removed from his tally. He is now 37 points behind the cutoff meaning that if MTJ and Larson didn’t get stage points at all, Larson would have to beat him by 36 spots on the track and hope that Blaney and Keselowski crash too. That’s not great odds.

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has been in this position before with needing a win to advance in a cutoff race, and he’s pulled that rabbit out of the hat before. However that was at tracks that have been better for him than Kansas. In the last five races he’s posted one top-five, two top-10s, four top-15s, and 22 laps led. Overall its a solid résumé but not a great one. He did win here in 2011 but doesn’t necessarily need a win to advance as he’s 18 points behind MTJ in ninth place. Keselowski will need to keep the car up front all day though and hope that if he can’t get the win, that MTJ finishes behind him or that he outpoints him in stage points.